Why Each Leading GOP Candidate Will Not Win the Party Nomination

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 08/06/07 | Rasmussen Reports

[Fred]

2008 Republican Presidential Primary Why Each Leading GOP Candidate Will Not Win the Party Nomination

Entering the month of August, it is quite easy to come up with an explanation for why each of the leading Republican Presidential candidates will not win their Party’s nomination.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is personally popular and has a solid core of support. But, it is easy to argue that America’s Mayor can’t win the nomination because his views on social and cultural issues step with a more conservative political party (just 27% of Republican voters see Giuliani as politically conservative while 68% say moderate or liberal). In this view, there is a ceiling to Giuliani’s potential support and he will not be embraced by a majority of Republican Primary Voters.

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson is looking good as a non-candidate and has soared in early polling. But it is easy to envision Thompson tanking once he formally enters the race and is forced to endure the grind of debates and other routine challenges. Some Washington insiders expect Fred to fizzle and whisper questions about a lack of substance or fire in his belly. As with all such whispering campaigns, it is hard to separate legitimate expectations from the hopes of some insiders.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney looks good on camera, on his resume, and in his bank account. But, he has failed to gain traction with GOP voters nationally. Even his advantage in New Hampshire polling is disconcertingly small for those who dream of Mitt in the White House. After all, he has a home field advantage in that state and is the only candidate so far to spend money advertising on television in that state. If he can’t dominate the field under those circumstances, how will he gain enough support to win the nomination? Besides that, 31% of Republican Voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Finally, there’s Arizona Senator John McCain. Of the four candidates in double digits, it’s the easiest to show why he won’t win the nomination. Within his own party, McCain is viewed favorably 54% and unfavorably by 40%. It is difficult to comprehend how anyone could win their party nomination with such high unfavorables among the party faithful. His long history of provoking conservatives was highlighted by his politically disastrous performance during the Senate debate over immigration. If you consider the financial crunch being faced by his campaign, the massive staff defections of the past month, and the negative impact of spectacularly missed expectations, it’s easy to count McCain out.

But, while it is easy to explain why each of those men will not win the GOP nomination, one of them will. McCain is certainly the least likely. His only hope at this point lies in the fact that the other three may all lose ground in the coming months.

It’s also tough for Romney to win without some help. However, if Thompson falters, Romney might be in the right place to pick up the pieces for Republicans who want somebody other than Giuliani.

It’s easier to see a path to victory for Thompson or Giuliani. Thompson has to show he’s for real after entering the race while Giuliani has to demonstrate he can reach out to some GOP voters who don’t share his position on cultural issues. But, those are significant challenges for the frontrunners.

It’s worth noting that in polling for the week ending August 5, 38% of GOP Likely Primary Voters support the top two candidates thought most appealing for conservative (Thompson and Romney). At the same time, 36% support the candidates thought most appealing to moderates in the party (Giuliani and McCain). Eighteen percent (18%) remain undecided.

Those latest weekly numbers show Giuliani with 25%, Thompson 24%, Romney 14% and McCain at 11%. Mike Huckabee earns support from 3%, Sam Brownback from 2% and four other candidates split 2% of the vote. Those candidates, mentioned by name in the polling question, are Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, and Tommy Thompson (review history of weekly results).

[xcamel]

Time for the ‘also ran’ bunch to get out of the sandbox.

[Mamzelle]

The real problem that no one is talking about—the GOP base is angry, and it’s a cold anger.

[greyfoxx39]

The real problem that no one is talking about—the GOP base is angry, and it’s a cold anger.

And with good reason.

Question is, how will that anger play out at the polls?

[Califreak]

With the “leaders” off to the side, there’s more room for my guy! Heehee. Duncan Hunter bump to the top.

[pgyanke]

Time for the ‘also ran’ bunch to get out of the sandbox.

No. Let them get to the primary. There is at least one good candidate there to pick up the pieces when the front-runners stumble. At the very least, the second tier can help put conservative values in play for the other candidates.

Just because the presidential election season started early is no reason for an early capitulation.

[squidly]

I don’t know about the nomination, but it’s Giulani’s personal life that will keep him from winning the general election.

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

The GOP base is angry, and they should be, but not at these men.

[Squidpup]

“fire in the belly” - what a poor, unoriginal story. Was it written in crayon? Nothing personal to the poster

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

“...But, while it is easy to explain why each of those men will not win the GOP nomination, one of them will...”

One of those guys?

I’ll be staying home.

[airborne]

http://www.gohunter08.com/

[ishabibble]

I’m really sick and tired of being told that I have to choose between Rudy or Fred. Mitt is another choice, although he is the “top tier” long shot. It’s too early, and that field is too narrow for anyone to claim the mantle of heir to the GOP. There really is such a thing as burnout, I’ve already got it!

[econjack]

McCain is toast, primarily because of his stance on immigration plus his co-sponsorship of some fairly liberal bills. Rudy has problems with his pro-choice position and I think that’s enough to rule him out. In my mind, that leaves Mitt and Fred. I see Fred’s thought process parallel those of Reagan, which I like a lot. Mitt is still relatively unknown outside of the East. A lot of people make an issue of his religion, but they also said JFK would lose because of his religion. I think US voters are a little more flexible on religion than the MSM thinks. For me, a fiscal conservative is needed and I want to see someone talk about tying spending promises (a la Hillary) directly with the funds to support such new programs. If someone had the ba77$ to reduce entitlements, they’d get my vote.

[Weeedley]

Duncan is at a minuscule 1%. If he is that great, how can his following be that small?

[WildcatClan]

If there is enough time for the ‘gonna runs’ to avoid the sandbox, I fail to see the urgency for the “also rans” to get out.

[ejonesie22]

I agree, especially in regards to Hunter and Tanc. Good men, who will have a tough time, but also help give perspective.

I am a Thompson man and shall be until he either wins,disappoints or falls, however I like having these guys as a fall back. My only concern would be the general, but time will tell.

I even say that Paul should be right in there, it adds to the drama, or maybe the entertainment value...

[Paperdoll]

>Time for the ‘also ran’ bunch to get out of the sandbox.<

LOL! More like it’s time for the almost running to show their stuff, like:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmKUMuPAMSE

[org.whodat]

The GOP base is angry, and they should be, but not at these men.

Wrong!

[greyfoxx39]

LOL! More like it’s time for the almost running to show their stuff

Good for Fred...he wouldn't be bullied. And, he didn't stomp out either. Not a bad clip for him.

[3niner]

With the “leaders” off to the side, there’s more room for my guy! Heehee. Duncan Hunter bump to the top.

It doesn't matter how good he might be. If he's sharing 2% with 3 other guys, there's no way he will be nominated.