Posted on 07/30/2007 10:07:03 PM PDT by propertius
On the grimy walls of the Ivanovo Machine Tools Factory, a declining Soviet behemoth once venerated as a model of Socialist efficiency, hangs a solitary display of safety guidelines.
In a series of fading illustrations, it instructs workers how to behave in the event of a Nato nuclear attack: don your gas masks, head for the nearest shelter and dispatch messengers on horseback to warn outlying villages.
Sergei Ivanov, the visiting joint first deputy prime minister of Russia, might not have seen the posters as he strode on to the factory floor, in Ivanovo, a gloomy city 220 miles north of Moscow, but if he had he would probably have approved.
Mr Ivanov, like President Vladimir Putin an ex-KGB spy, is not fond of Nato. In his eyes, the organisation has deceived Moscow, using a pretence that the Cold War is over to move troops into eastern Europe as part of a plot to encircle Russia.
His frequent anti-Western outbursts, compounded by a recent threat to move nuclear missiles into the Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, on the European Union's border, are causing growing international alarm.
Reflecting on Mr Ivanov's hostile disposition, one western diplomat referred to him as "Mr Nasty". The worry for the West is that "Mr Nasty" is increasingly starting to look like the hawkish Mr Putin's more hawkish heir apparent when (and if) the president steps down following elections next March. As in Soviet times, polling day itself promises to be an unexciting and meaningless contest bereft of genuine opposition.
Two candidates who have put their names forward without the Kremlin's blessing have suddenly found themselves the focus of criminal investigations and could spend the election in prison.
Thanks to his tight control of the airwaves and his vast popularity, whoever Mr Putin names as his successor is bound to win.
So far, the president - barred by the constitution from seeking a third term - has demurred from making his choice public. But among a field of possible candidates, most of them friends of the president from the days he worked in the St Petersburg city administration, Mr Ivanov is now regarded as favourite. Whether attending a concert, opening a gym or touring a factory, Mr Ivanov's daily routine is given lavish coverage on state television, dramatically boosting his opinion poll ratings. Given that news editors are told what to report by the Kremlin, commentators believe the publicity is clear evidence that Mr Ivanov is being groomed for office.
Mr Ivanov denies harbouring presidential ambitions. Yet visits like the one to the Ivanovo factory are the closest Mr Ivanov is likely to come to proper electioneering.
Like Mr Putin, who once compared campaigning to selling Tampax, Mr Ivanov eschews the glad-handing and soap-box politics that accompanies elections in the West.
He acknowledged the dutiful applause of factory workers, but in his brief conversation with one he appeared awkward - an attribute he tries to hide by placing hand in trouser pocket to feign casualness. It is easy to see what Mr Putin finds attractive in his deputy prime minister. The two men share similar characteristics - both, for instance, are gauche in public but apparently magnetic in smaller gatherings - and a similar background.
They met in 1977 at KGB officer training college. While Mr Putin was stationed in Dresden, Mr Ivanov was posted beyond the Iron Curtain, serving in Kenya, Finland and, it is rumoured, London - from where he was reportedly expelled in 1985.
Mr Putin appointed Mr Ivanov his deputy when he took over the FSB, the KGB's domestic successor, in 1998.
A fan of John Le Carré, and a fluent English speaker, Mr Ivanov is in many ways as enigmatic as the man he may succeed. Yet Mr Putin seems to believe in his loyalty - a quality of supreme importance if, as is widely believed, the president hopes to retain political influence after he steps down.
The hardening of Mr Putin's anti-Western position, analysts say, also boosts Mr Ivanov's chances.
His chief rival, the other, slightly more liberal, first deputy prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, has seen his television coverage dwindle as the president has grown more dogmatic.
In recent months, Mr Putin has likened the United States to the Third Reich, accused Britain of neo-colonialism and threatened to point nuclear missiles at Europe. If antagonism is to be the Kremlin's course, Mr Ivanov could be the best man for the job.
ping.
Kremlin chest thumping could get worse after March 2008...
OH JOE check this out
She may be ultra loyal, but I doubt that Putin would go for Matvienko. Russians may adore him, but they are not ready for a woman.
Medvedev remains in with a chance, though he is slipping back. Naryshkin seems to be moving up the field of dark horses — though I reckon Yakunin is the leader of the outsiders (he’s both ex-KGB and ex-St Petersburg).
That is assuming, of course, that Putin does go.
I reckone he’s drawn up various plans but hasn’t yet decided which one to go for. Though, like everyone else, I’m speculating wildly.
Ivanov has openly called for the restoration of the Soviet Union as a Communist state.
Medvedev is too moderate for Putin’s tastes and can barley tolerate the “Our Russia” party.
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When?
Some speech he gave a few years ago. Anyway, Ivanov is much more of a hardliner than Putin ever was, and is liked not only by Putinists, but also gets a raining endorsement from Gennedy Zuganiov, the leader of the Russian Communist party.
Ivanov has openly called for the restoration of the Soviet Union as a Communist state.==
Can you give the reference? I’d like to read it because I did never heard such thing.
Anyway, Ivanov is much more of a hardliner than Putin ever was, and is liked not only by Putinists, but also gets a raining endorsement from Gennedy Zuganiov, the leader of the Russian Communist party.==
Ivanov are talking just the reality. NATO indeed try to encirle Russia. And new ABM in Poland is against Russia not Iran. It is almost 100% opinion in Russia.
Why? This issue has been discussed with Russia since the 1990s — it is hardly new.
The idea that the shield is aimed at Russia, or that NATO is encircling Russia is pure paranoia (unless Putin makes it self fulfilling prophecy by his quasi-fascist antics).
10 interceptor missiles against the largest nuclear arsenal in the world? The deployment of 2,000 to 3,000 American troops into Bulgaria and Romania? This is what has got you guys into such a tizz? Please!
I think Putin was looking for an excuse to re-arm and we gave it to him.
As each day passes, I can see Gog and Magog more clearly.
Bump.
Ping.
‘Comrade, the dictatorship is in surrounded! Inform Premier Putin the time as arrived. The Neo-Soviet Empire must surrender or face the music!’==
The best laugh is the last laugh.
The best laugh is the last laugh!!:)
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