Posted on 07/11/2007 7:59:23 AM PDT by hardback
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is down and nearly out in his quest for the GOP presidential nomination.
Several factors contributed to the one-time Republican frontrunner's demise.
*McCain was never a favorite of social conservatives, a key voting block within the party. In McCain's 2000 campaign much of his "straight talk" appeal lay in the fact that he took on that faction, endearing him to independents and for awhile the news media. McCain realized he'd need social conservatives if he wanted the '08 nomination and he strongly courted them this time around. The plan backfired. He appeared to be flip-flopping, still never won over the religious right and his media coverage turned negative.
*McCain never got traction when it came to fund raising, which was a huge problem because the eventual winner of the race will likely spend north of $500 million.
*And, ironically, McCain was ultimately doomed by his close association with President Bush. Bush took out McCain in 2000, and the Arizona senator was bitter about what he saw as nasty moves made by those who backed Bush. It surprised some that McCain became such a strong supporter of the Iraq war. Most Republican candidates are now distancing themselves from the Bush administration's handling of Iraq, but McCain became linked in the public's mind with that unpopular conflict.
So all this is good news for Rudy Giuliani, right? Maybe not. The former New York mayor has been leading in the polls, but an unannounced candidate- the actor-turned-politician-turned actor Fred Thompson - is gaining on him and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is running strong in Iowa and New Hampshire.
As the National Journal writes in its rankings of GOP candidates:
Mr. Electable (Giuliani) has map-changing capabilities that no other Republican would dare claim. And he's still popular among Republicans, as evidenced by those national polls. But while everyone's been obsessing over how low John McCain will go, it's Giuliani who has seen his national numbers cut in half since April, and his leads in Iowa and New Hampshire erased by Romney. Does Rudy Inc. realize that the window is closing on his own ability to define his biography? Get some paid media up soon, Mr. Mayor.
precisely why he will not be nominated.
Because Rudy will pickup most of the middle votes...independents, center pubs and Kennedy democrats. That’s represents 40-50% of the electorate. Social conservatives may stay home but fiscal and WOT conservatives will hold their noses and vote for him.
If Rudy gets the nomination, he wins. I won’t vote for him in the primaries but I will in the general election if he gets the nod.
Yup.
Rudy’s people have run the numbers and feel he can get enough votes to win the nomination even with a poor showing from the social conservatives.
Me, I don’t know but it will be close. The joker in the deck is a guy like Thompson or Gingrich who can say all the right things Rudy’s record prohibit him from saying.
—Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is down and nearly out in his quest for the GOP presidential nomination.—
But that doesn’t rule out a run as a Spoiler Independent...
Re. # 33: Great post!
I think that headline is wishful thinking on the part of some left leaning journalist.
i know Rudy thinks he can offset the social conservatives, and i think he’s wrong. of course, this is presuming Thompson gets in the race.
Only in the Bizarro World of the Seattle Post could a flagrant, in-your-face-so-EAT-it-damn-you attempt to cede sovereignty of this nation's borders to Mexico conceivably qualify as "strongly courting" social conservatives.
Cripes.
Not only the Keating five but, I have not forgot Tax on smokers.
I also don’t see a viable anti-Mitt in the 2nd tier that will catch fire . . .
Duncan Hunter has great hair like Mitt, a similar hard work ethic and a better track record as a conservative.
Isn’t that sad when we choose our candidates by their attractiveness? Thats what Mitt has going for him. The only reason Fred Thompson is being considered is because he has gravitas. His lack of hair hurts him. I hope Fred breaks this stupid mode of electing candidates with nice hair.
Giuliani’s campaign will end up just as McCain’s has. Out of money, no base, and staffers abandoning ship. That’s what happens when you forsake the conservative base of the GOP.
We haven’t forgotten that McCain has been in bed with Teddy Kennedy and the RATS on most issues. The Straight Talk Experss is more described as the “Full-o-Bologna Express.” I looked up the defintion of RINO and saw McCains’s picture. The Great Oz Has Spoken.
Not to mention the fact that McCain is a hot head and borderline nutso too.
He’s relying on the several more-conservative candidates (Thompson, Romney, Hunter) splitting the conservative vote and getting the nom on the RINO vote.
Giuliani who?
Why on earth would a Republican president alienate his base and try to grab guns grant amnesty to illegal aliens?
There was a time when I would've agreed with your comment, but I've changed my opinion considerably as of late.
The last three Republican presidents were pro-life, and we still get thousands of abortions a day.
I'm not sure I understand your point. We still have crime; does that mean we should give up fighting it? And I might add that someone who believes Roe v Wade is bad law is much more likely to appoint strict constructionists to the bench.
By the time the convention rolls around there may be several still running but only 2 viable candidates. The early primaries will probably knock out all except Rudy, Fred and Mitt. Anyone still hanging around is doing do so with an eye toward 2012...or for cash like Keyes did.
Rudy is a proven ex-mayor and that is about it, but he's not bad at cross dressing either.
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