Posted on 07/11/2007 7:59:23 AM PDT by hardback
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is down and nearly out in his quest for the GOP presidential nomination.
Several factors contributed to the one-time Republican frontrunner's demise.
*McCain was never a favorite of social conservatives, a key voting block within the party. In McCain's 2000 campaign much of his "straight talk" appeal lay in the fact that he took on that faction, endearing him to independents and for awhile the news media. McCain realized he'd need social conservatives if he wanted the '08 nomination and he strongly courted them this time around. The plan backfired. He appeared to be flip-flopping, still never won over the religious right and his media coverage turned negative.
*McCain never got traction when it came to fund raising, which was a huge problem because the eventual winner of the race will likely spend north of $500 million.
*And, ironically, McCain was ultimately doomed by his close association with President Bush. Bush took out McCain in 2000, and the Arizona senator was bitter about what he saw as nasty moves made by those who backed Bush. It surprised some that McCain became such a strong supporter of the Iraq war. Most Republican candidates are now distancing themselves from the Bush administration's handling of Iraq, but McCain became linked in the public's mind with that unpopular conflict.
So all this is good news for Rudy Giuliani, right? Maybe not. The former New York mayor has been leading in the polls, but an unannounced candidate- the actor-turned-politician-turned actor Fred Thompson - is gaining on him and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is running strong in Iowa and New Hampshire.
As the National Journal writes in its rankings of GOP candidates:
Mr. Electable (Giuliani) has map-changing capabilities that no other Republican would dare claim. And he's still popular among Republicans, as evidenced by those national polls. But while everyone's been obsessing over how low John McCain will go, it's Giuliani who has seen his national numbers cut in half since April, and his leads in Iowa and New Hampshire erased by Romney. Does Rudy Inc. realize that the window is closing on his own ability to define his biography? Get some paid media up soon, Mr. Mayor.
Why claim them if it means voting for someone who stands for so many things conservatives are against? GWB showed a path to victory that included neither New York nor California.
Giuliani is associated with the Trans-Texas Corridor, right?
If Fred gets in, yes that would be true. Mitt does have that ability to remain standing in the middle of a gale.
Courtesy Comment:
Senor McCaniac the MSM is afraid that you went against 80 plus percent of the voters in America and expected to get elected.
That is the 80 percent against Shamnesty.
Seeing you have relations with that ole Devil Murdering Ted Kennedy finally did you in for me.
Of course Johnny boy it did not help that you said most of my friends and me are bigots, arrogant and ignorant.
“Mitt does have that ability to remain standing in the middle of a gale.”
and his hair will be perfect. Go, Mitt go!
....... while everyone's been obsessing over how low John McCain will go, it's Giuliani who has seen his national numbers cut in half since April, and his leads in Iowa and New Hampshire erased by Romney. Does Rudy Inc. realize that the window is closing on his own ability to define his biography? Get some paid media up soon, Mr. Mayor............
Oh, and speaking of paid media------may I suggest Mr Mayor, that you have your wife Judi pose with you in TV ad clips------a pose with Judy and her little puppy against the backdrop of the WH Cabinet Room would be nice (snicker).
Agreed. And if the choice is Romney or Thompson, it had better be Thompson. But does he want it bad enough? Can he fight Hillary every hour of every day between now and November, 2008? It will take a huge effort to beat her. The media is ninety percent behind her.
Rudy PaTootie and Mitt the Mormon will both crumble...too much baggage. My bets are on Thompson or Hunter...the only true conservative choices.
Yep. I suspect all the money he isn't getting is going to Rudy, Mitt and Fred, all of whom support victory. If supporting victory was the reason for his trouble, Ron Paul would be raising more money than any candidate in history.
We haven’t forgotten that McCain has been in bed with Teddy Kennedy and the RATS on most issues. The Straight Talk Experss is more described as the “Full-o-Bologna Express.” I looked up the defintion of RINO and saw McCains’s picture. The Great Oz Has Spoken.
I was at a Giuliani fundraiser a few weeks ago and I have to say that he was pretty impressive. He was getting some tough questions and handling them pretty well. For example, when he asked about the Fatah/Hamas situation, his answer was approximately as follows:
“I think we need to start by reaching out to Fatah and seeing if they can contain Hamas and keep the peace. Now I think that has only about a 30 to 40 percent chance of working, but we have to try, if only for the sake of international appearances. If that doesn’t work, we need to look into cutting off aid. We need to cut off all aid to Gaza, since Hamas controls that area. It’s sad, considering the humanintarian problems that would cause, but we can’t be underwriting a terrorist organization.”
I voted for Bush twice, but Giuliani just seems more well-read, able to think better on his feet, and a more able executive.
As for the objections to Giuliani:
1. He’s a gun-grabber.
His record on guns isn’t good, but he was also appeasing a very left-wing city. Why on earth would a Republican president alienate his base and try to grab guns? I just don’t see any realistic scenario for this happening.
2. He’s pro-amnesty.
I have little hope that any president will get the support of Congress to deport 12 million aliens. I’ll take Giuliani’s promise to build a wall.
3. He’s pro-choice.
The last three Republican presidents were pro-life, and we still get thousands of abortions a day. No matter who is elected in 2008, abortions will still be happening in 2008. Abortions will stop when people stop having them.
4. He’s worn a dress on television and has gay friends.
Criticisms like this seem to amount to “he’s not one of us”, but I hear a strain of tribalism in such thinking. Giuliani is a secular urbanite, not a rural religious conservative like Bush. His attitudes are a bit different, but we have to think of the big picture. Giuliani has shown he knows how to be an executive.
Full disclosure: I’m not on Giuliani’s staff and have taken no money from him.
Rudy's dive will happen closer to the primaries. Right now his poll numbers are based on name recognition. More people have heard of him than have heard of Romney, and the image they have of him is an image of toughness: The guy who cleaned up NYC, the guy who led on 9/11. When more of the primary voters realize that what we're talking about is running a New York lib against a New York lib, he will drop precipitously.
Calling for a massive commitment of troops in a war halfway around the world whose only purpose is to prop up an Islamic government -- while at the same time pushing for the legalization of 12-20 million foreign invaders and continued unfettered access across our southern border -- exposed McCain as a total fraud.
Good riddance to this jack@ss. He was never a serious candidate to begin with, and will be remembered as an over-hyped mediocrity who was nothing more than a media construct.
I can’t see why any lib would be worried about Rudy. Running a New York lib against a New York lib is no strategy for the GOP in 2008.
Actually, let me make a correction: I do see why a lib would be worried about Rudy. Libs working for big city papers think that the rest of America really thinks like them (when they aren’t schizophrenically dismissing us as troglodytes) and he probably figures that there’s no way a lib could lose a post-Bush election.
Nice analysis. I would add that him wearing that dress on the SNL skit showed me he doesn’t take himself so seriously it becomes a character flaw.
Thanks.
Edit my last comment: “No matter who is elected in 2008, abortions will still be happening in 2012.”
This article does not mention the single most important factor: McCain’s support for Bush’s immigration proposal. I respect McCain because he has principles, but it just so happens that those principles, at least on immigration, are in diametric opposition to the Republican base.
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