[AaronInCarolina]

Insolation (including the modulation of the Milankovith cycle) is the only theory that fits all the facts

I'm in agreement with you, but I think the recent climate has been indirectly driven by insolation changes through these changes' effects upon the great ocean oscillations: PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). These oscillations are accepted to be naturally driven and cyclical, but their magnitudes are impacted by decades of increased solar insolation during the 20th century. When the impacts of the PDO being in it's warm phase (which flipped to warm in 1979), and the the AMO being also in its warm phase (which flipped in 1995) are superimposed, the correlation with recent satellite-based temperature observations are almost exact.

The short-sightedness displayed by those who only look at solar insolation's immediate impacts upon the troposphere is staggering. The oceans and their oscillations are the 800 lb gorilla that they always ignore. Yes, there are short-term impacts upon our atmosphere by solar insolation, but there are also longer-term impacts which I believe are primarily ignored by those who seek to exploit a recent divergence between solar insolation levels and ground-based temperature observations. This divergence is easily explained partially by the fact that the temperature increases are exaggerated by poor siting and also by data manipulation techniques which always increase the observed temperatures, and also by the fact that when a heat source (which heats a heat sink) is reduced, there is not an immediate measurable reduction in the heat sink, and nearby elements that the heat sink influences will also not immediately feel the impact of the heat source reduction.

[AFPhys]

When the impacts of the PDO being in it’s warm phase (which flipped to warm in 1979), and the the AMO being also in its warm phase (which flipped in 1995) are superimposed, the correlation with recent satellite-based temperature observations are almost exact.

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Great post...