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How Will Al-Qa'eda Strike Next?
The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 7-4-2007 | Crispin Black

Posted on 07/03/2007 7:18:43 PM PDT by blam

How will al-Qa'eda strike next?

By Crispin Black
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 04/07/2007

The recent failed bomb plot may, in technical terms, prove to have been carried out by a "sleeper cell" composed of individuals in "deep cover", the ultimate security nightmare. A sleeper cell is one where its members, while remaining in contact with each other, are biding their time, or waiting for instructions, before they carry out their attacks. And they are in "deep cover" because each may have a profession or fictitious image that they maintain permanently until they move to attack.

To work as real doctors, doing a real job entailing years of real training, would provide very clever cover. And with the bonus that most modern people are deferential to medical professionals, regardless of their religion or ethnicity.

It is still possible that those the courts may find to have been involved in the recent attempted terror attacks may be proven to have been radicalised while working in Britain, but it may turn out that some of them were talent-spotted while being educated in the Middle East or elsewhere. The bombs were not up to much, but the propaganda effect has been more than satisfactory to our enemies.

The state needs to be more rigorous about those professionally qualified workers it decides to admit to this country. An advanced education is no safeguard against extremism. The Government must make sure that professionals - in whatever field - are vetted if they come from countries where there is a chance that they might have been recruited by extremists. Rogue engineers, for instance, could do enormous damage.

How will al-Qa'eda mutate next? Two specific threats have worried the intelligence community for some time. First, that it will manage to recruit Caucasians covertly to their cause - not obvious converts who then adopt extremist positions, such as the American John Walker, who fought with the Taliban in 2001, but individuals who adopt an extremist mindset without any tell-tale signs.

In early 2005, al-Qa'eda leaders specifically appealed for white converts to become suicide bombers, because they felt it was easier for them to travel and evade detection. The most famous case so far has been that of a 38-year-old white middle-class Belgian woman from Charleroi who, in December 2005, took part in a suicide attack on US forces in Iraq. (The Belgian authorities have never revealed her identity, to protect her relatives).

The second worry has been that extremists will infiltrate the intelligence services themselves, not necessarily to disrupt operations, but to gain insight and expertise, in the way that a number of IRA men did stints in the Army in the 1970s and 1980s. At a time when MI5, MI6 and GCHQ are desperate for recruits of non-European appearance and fluent in exotic languages, it would be worth al-Qa'eda trying to slip someone inside.

All three services have long corporate memories and remember that a number of traitors managed to infiltrate to the heart of the intelligence establishment when vetting procedures were shortened or abandoned. Anthony Blunt, the fourth man among the Cambridge spies, managed to get into MI5 in this way in 1941.

The intelligence community is also concerned that the current high tempo of counter-terror operations will inevitably leave it focused too much on the here and now. There is a limit to the number of times in a year when all leave can be cancelled (as it is currently for MI5 and Special Branch) without producing fatigue and a tail-off in performance.

All kinds of activities need to go on smoothly that are inevitably disrupted by large emergencies. Training time is one obvious casualty, but more crucial is thinking time. The Congressional 9/11 report talks about a "failure of imagination" by intelligence officials as contributing to the disaster. If we are to give our intelligence services a reasonable chance of "imagining" what the next twist or turn in al-Qa'eda's strategy is likely to be, they need to be well resourced enough to have time to think. God forbid that they end up under-resourced and overstretched permanently, like parts of our Armed Forces.

There is no general rule or theory for counter-terror policing or intelligence, except that counter-terror operations cannot live on intelligence alone. Intelligence services can only do so much. The distinguished former CIA director James Woolsey used the term "goalkeeper" accurately over the weekend. They can pull off spectacular saves, but we cannot expect them to win the match on their own. Their efforts must leverage off other parts of our security structure - like proper border controls or a system for deporting extremist troublemakers.

This is important because there is a general rule governing al-Qa'eda's efforts and it can give us guidance about where and how we need to act. Our enemies will observe and then exploit any procedural, legal, or cultural weaknesses we present. They are imaginative and shameless "loopholers".

The ability to exploit the freedoms and trust of most Western societies is as much part of al-Qa'eda's weapons systems as the car bomb. Where there are obvious loopholes that have been exploited or look as though they will be exploited, we should close them off quickly, effectively and without embarrassment.

Crispin Black is a former government intelligence analyst


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: alqaeda; islam; next; strike; uk
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1 posted on 07/03/2007 7:18:43 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Wrong question. Should be- When and How Do We Strike Back?!


2 posted on 07/03/2007 7:19:59 PM PDT by REDWOOD99
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To: blam; Cindy

ping.


3 posted on 07/03/2007 7:24:38 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar
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To: blam

The air has slowly leaked out of their islamic balloon since 911. Unfortunately, they must do something spectacular to pump the balloon up again. Standby!


4 posted on 07/03/2007 7:25:17 PM PDT by doc1019 (Fred Thompson '08)
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To: blam

Think like the enemy: Shopping mall lazer eye surgeons.


5 posted on 07/03/2007 7:29:20 PM PDT by Thrownatbirth (.....when the sidewalks are safe for the little guy.)
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To: doc1019

“The air has slowly leaked out of their islamic balloon since 911. Unfortunately, they must do something spectacular to pump the balloon up again. Standby!”

____________

Hard to imagine what they will do to try to top the 9/11 attacks.


6 posted on 07/03/2007 7:29:50 PM PDT by berstbubble
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To: blam
I think lumping muslim ideology into a small container and calling it al qaeda is the main impediment to eradicating this scourge. The inability to recognize the source, which is the koran, of this never ending stream of mass murder.
7 posted on 07/03/2007 7:32:50 PM PDT by kinoxi
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To: blam
When I first saw the authors name, I thought this was a Scrabbleface article.

"Crisp'n'Black"

8 posted on 07/03/2007 7:34:17 PM PDT by 2111USMC
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To: kinoxi

One thing is sure. We won’t call it Muslim of terror. So, I guess it won’t exist.


9 posted on 07/03/2007 7:37:42 PM PDT by ClaireSolt (Have you have gotten mixed up in a mish-masher?)
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To: ClaireSolt
You could sell some bumper stickers though... /s
:)
10 posted on 07/03/2007 7:42:09 PM PDT by kinoxi
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To: blam
"To work as real doctors, doing a real job entailing years of real training, would provide very clever cover. "

They could have killed more innocents if they had stuck with their area of expertise.

Speculative question: Are the jihad elites are running low on useful idiots with the proper training?

11 posted on 07/03/2007 7:42:43 PM PDT by labette
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To: REDWOOD99
Strike back? How many more must die?

How many more Embassies, ships, soldiers, sailors?

How many more innocents must die to Islam?

================= EXHIBIT 1 ================

Mumbai, formerly known as Bombay attacked by Islamic terrorists.


================= EXHIBIT 2 ================

London attacked by Islamic terrorists. Amateurs? Professionals? Why does the MSM separate this?


================= EXHIBIT 3 ================

Madrid attacked by Islamic terrorists.


================= EXHIBIT 4 ================

AMERICANS MURDERED ON A BRIDGE IN FALLUJA BY ISLAMIC SUBHUMAN TERRORISTS


The War for Infinite Justice MUST BE ESCALATED

================= EXHIBIT 5 ================

TORTURE OF AMERICANS BY ISLAMIC SUBHUMAN TERRORISTS.


The War for Infinite Justice MUST BE ESCALATED

================= EXHIBIT 6 ================

VERY PARTIAL LIST OF ISLAMIC TERRORIST ACTIVITIES
Full list is pages and pages and pages and pages.

1968 Robert Kennedy assassinated
1972 Munich Olympics Sep-5,1972 (Black September)
1976 Entebbe Hostage Crisis, June 27, 1976
1979 Iran Hostage Crisis, Nov. 4, 1979 444 days
1979 Grand Mosque Seizure, Nov 20,1979
1981 Assassination of Egyptian President, Oct 6,1981
1982 Assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister, Sept 14, 1982
1983 Bombing of US Embassy in Beirut6, April 18,1983
1983 Bombing of Maring Barricks, Beruit, Oct 23,1983
1984 Hizballah Restaurant Bombing, April 12,1984
1985 Egyptian Airliner Hijacking, Nov 23,1985
1985 Rome Airport murders
1985 TWA Flight 847 hijacked, U.S. Navy diver murdered
1985 Achille Lauro hijacking, Homacidal maniac lived in saddams Iraq
1986 Aircraft Bombing in Greece, March 30, 1986
1988 Pan Am 747 Flight 103 Bombing, Lockerbie, 100's murdered
1988 Berlin Discoteque Bombing, Dec 21,1988
1992 Bombing in Israeli Embassy in Argentina, March 17,1992
1993 Attempted Assassination of Pres. Bush Sr., April 14,1993
1993 First World Trade Center bombing, February 26th, 7 Killed, Hundreds injured, Billions
1994 Air France Hijacking, Dec 24,1994
1995 Attack on US Diplomats in Pakistan, Mar 8,1995
1995 Military Installation Attack, Nov 13, 1995
1995 Kashmiri Hostage taking, July 4,1995
1996 Khobar Towers attack
1996 Sudanese Missionarys Kidnapping, Aug 17,1996
1996 Paris Subway Explosion, Dec 3,1996
1997 Israeli Shopping Mall Bombing, Sept 4, 1997
1997 Yemeni Kidnappings, Oct 30,1997
1998 Somali Hostage taking crisis, April 15,1998
1998 U.S. Embassy Bombing in Peru, Jan 15, 1998
1998 U.S. Kenya Embassy blown up, 100's murdered
1998 U.S. Tanzania Embassy blown up, 100's murdered
1999 Plot to blow up Space Needle (thwarted)
2000 USS Cole attacked, many U.S. Navy sailors murdered
2000-2003 Intifada against Israel - 100's dead and injured
2000 Manila Bombing, Dec 30,2000
2001 4 Commercial airliners hijacked, 250+ murdered
2001 World Trade Center attacked, 2800+ murdered
2001 Flight 93 murders
2001 Pentagon attacked, 180+ murdered
2002 Reporter Daniel Pearl, kidnapped and murdered
2002 Philippines American missionary, Filipino nurse killed
2002 July 4, El Al attack Los Angeles LAX, several murdered
2002 Bali bombing - 200 dead, 300 injured
2002 Yemen, French Oil Tanker attacked
2002 Marines attacked / murdered in Kuwait
2002 Washington D.C. sniper
2002 Russian Theater attacked, 100+ dead
2002 Nigerian riots against Miss World Pageant, 200 dead, dozens injured
2002 Mombasa Hotel Attacked, 12 dead, dozens injured
2002 Israeli Boeing 757 attacked by missiles, fortunately no one injured
2002 August Hotel bombing in Jakarta, Indonesia. 12 dead, dozens injured.
2003 Rusian concert bombing
2003 Phillipines airport and market bombing
2003 Foiled SAM plot in the USA
2003 UN Baghdad HQ Bombing
on and on and on and on their terrorism has gone .........


The War for Infinite Justice MUST BE ESCALATED

================= EXHIBIT 7 ================

Islamic Terrorists (mainly from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan) attack America
murdering 3000 Americans per hour [pictures censored by the MSM]

The War for Infinite Justice SHOULD HAVE BEEN ESCALATED IN 2001


================= EXHIBIT 8 ================

Russia, at Beslan, with children murdered by Islamic terrorists.


================= EXHIBIT 9 ================

=========== Documents linking Atta, Saddam, Nidal, bin Ladin ===========

Handwritten letter dated Feb. 19, 1998 linking bin Laden and Saddam Hussein
discussing arrival of a secret envoy sent by bin Laden to Iraq.
The signature beneath the letter is a codename, "MDA" - the Mukhabarat.


================= EXHIBIT 10================

=========== Islamic terrorists promising to conquer America prior to murdering all Christians and Jews therein.

"Islam isn't in America to be equal to any other faith,
but to become dominant. The Qur'an should be the highest authority in America,
and Islam the only accepted religion on earth
"

--Omar Ahmed, Chairman of the Board of CAIR (Council of American Islamic Relations), San Ramon Valley Herald, July 1998


Qur’an 8:12 “I shall terrorize the infidels.
So wound their bodies and incapacitate them
because they oppose Allah and His Apostle.”

Qur’an 8:57 “If you gain mastery over them in battle,
inflict such a defeat as would terrorize them,
so that they would learn a lesson and be warned.”

12 posted on 07/03/2007 7:44:26 PM PDT by Diogenesis (Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum)
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To: berstbubble
Hard to imagine what they will do to try to top the 9/11 attacks.

Not really.

13 posted on 07/03/2007 7:45:13 PM PDT by null and void (A large gov't agency is more expensive than a smaller agency with the same mission, yet does less)
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To: Diogenesis

Don’t ever stop posting that!!


14 posted on 07/03/2007 7:46:21 PM PDT by REDWOOD99
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To: Diogenesis

I like the references to “Infinite Justice”. I remember that was the original name of the operations in Afghanistan. But then the name was changed to Operation “Enduring Freedom” due to political correctness. It offended Muslim sensibilities to call it “Infinite Justice” because to them, only Allah himself can dispense justice.

Politcal correctness is going to get us all killed.


15 posted on 07/03/2007 7:49:07 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: blam

Electric transmission lines, that’s one key weakness. Think of how dependent we are on electricity, and how easy it is to bring towers down. This is where EVERYONE should be alert to suspicious activity. With almost a TRILLION dollar budget, you’d think that homeland security could at LEAST get that message across to all americans.


16 posted on 07/03/2007 7:50:31 PM PDT by timer (n/0=n=nx0)
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To: Diogenesis
We can no longer play by the old

(fair and gracious) rules.

This is a war for the survival of our children.

It needs to be fought to WIN...not to make nice.


17 posted on 07/03/2007 7:51:53 PM PDT by bannie (The Good Guys cannot win when they're the only ones to play by the rules.)
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To: labette
I would guess that these doctors did not go through medical school as a "cover" to become jihadis. They probably were sincere in studying medicine.

Somewhere along the way, they were radicalized. It could have been in their home countries, but more likely they came to Britain to practice medicine for better pay.

It's obvious that there are many radical mosques in Britain, and radical communities surrounding them. I would speculate that these doctors began attending a mosque and were coopted by a constant barrage of hate and claims of British abuse of Muslims, alleged crimes in Iraq, and became angry and bitter after the imams whipped them up.

How could one throw away a career in medicine and possibly their own lives and attempt to kill hundreds or thousands? The influence of radical Islam must be potent indeed.

18 posted on 07/03/2007 7:52:06 PM PDT by Sender (Success in warfare is gained by carefully accommodating ourselves to the enemy's purpose.)
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To: REDWOOD99
Wrong question. Should be- When and How Do We Strike Back?!

Click for a remarkable explanation of the value of Tit-for-Tat.

19 posted on 07/03/2007 7:52:27 PM PDT by AZLiberty (President Fred -- I like the sound of it.)
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To: berstbubble
Hard to imagine what they will do to try to top the 9/11 attacks.

No, it's not hard at all. Not at all.

20 posted on 07/03/2007 7:53:43 PM PDT by don-o (End Freepathons forever. Do the RIGHT thing. Become a monthly donor)
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