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Rasmussen: Thompson 27% Giuliani 24%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 7/3/2007 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 07/03/2007 12:03:04 PM PDT by Neville72

Tuesday, July 03, 2007

After weeks of turmoil and change, the race for the Republican Presidential nomination has stabilized.

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson remains on top in Rasmussen Reports national polling with 27% support. That’s unchanged from a week ago. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is three points behind at 24%.

Thompson has a 16-point advantage over Giuliani among conservatives while Giuliani holds an even larger edge among moderate voters. However, in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination, there are always more conservative voters than moderates.

A separate survey found that Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative of all GOP candidates. Giuliani remains the best liked candidate. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans now have a favorable opinion of America’s Mayor. Thompson’s numbers among the GOP faithful have been moving in the opposite direction. Sixty-four percent (64%) of GOP voters have a favorable opinion of the actor while just 12% have an unfavorable view.

This week’s national GOP poll also finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with a one-point edge over Arizona Senator John McCain for the fourth time in six weeks. Romney and McCain were tied during the other two weeks. Now, the numbers are 13% for Romney and 12% for McCain.

Romney is viewed favorably by 58% of Republican voters while 30% have a less flattering opinion. McCain is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 40% of Republicans.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is atop the second tier at 3%. Six other candidates--Senator Sam Brownback, Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore—split 4% of the vote. Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure.

The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 624 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted June 25-28, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary.

Romney has not been able to gain traction in national polling, but he is on top in New Hampshire. The first Rasmussen Reports poll in that state finds the former Massachusetts Governor with a nine-point lead in his neighboring state.

McCain’s campaign is in serious trouble. The man once considered the dominant frontrunner had struggled for months. Over the past six weeks, his fervent support for the unpopular immigration reform bill may have been the final straw that doomed his campaign. His poll numbers are now closer to Huckabee and Brownback rather than Thompson and Giuliani. Media reports say the Arizona Senator is running very low on cash and has dramatically reduced his campaign staff. Last week, the Senator himself had to deny reports that he’d be out of the race by September.

While the Senate immigration bill hurt McCain and drove President Bush’s Job Approval to new lows, the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans increased last month. That’s the first monthly increase in Republican identification this year. Democrats continue to be trusted more than Republicans on most key issues, but the GOP has regained parity on national security. Among unaffiliated voters, Republicans are preferred on both national security and immigration.

Senator Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner for the Democratic Presidential nomination. She leads both the national and New Hampshire polls.

Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Republican nominating contest every Tuesday. Results for the Democrats are updated on Mondays.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: electionpresident; fredthompson; giuliani; romney
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Looks like the "Big Four" has turned into the "Big Two"

Go Fred go!

1 posted on 07/03/2007 12:03:06 PM PDT by Neville72
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To: Neville72
Six other candidates--Senator Sam Brownback, Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore—split 4% of the vote.

Ouch, the bottom 6 sharing 4% of the overall support...

2 posted on 07/03/2007 12:04:54 PM PDT by mnehring (Virtus Junxit Mors Non Separabit)
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To: mnehrling
Ouch, the bottom 6 sharing 4% of the overall support...

If there were one more added to their number, the media would be referring to them as the "7 Dwarfs". Maybe McCain will turn out to be #7?

3 posted on 07/03/2007 12:10:57 PM PDT by Sans-Culotte
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To: Neville72

If Giuliani happens to win the nomination, I don’t have a clue what I’ll do in the general election. I cannot vote for a democrat and I cannot vote for Giuliani.

For the first time since I’ve been old enough to vote I might have to leave that space blank.

So, go Fred go!


4 posted on 07/03/2007 12:15:45 PM PDT by Graybeard58 (Remember and pray for SSgt. Matt Maupin - MIA/POW- Iraq since 04/09/04)
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To: Sans-Culotte

I bet he’d be “Grumpy”


5 posted on 07/03/2007 12:17:47 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: Sans-Culotte

Well, we know who Dopey would be (Ron Paul)


6 posted on 07/03/2007 12:18:50 PM PDT by mnehring (Virtus Junxit Mors Non Separabit)
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To: Neville72
I picked up my Fred Thompson bumper stickers and a "The Hunt For FRed November" t-shirt off CafePress.com this past week.

You wouldn't believe the comments I have gotten.

7 posted on 07/03/2007 12:19:03 PM PDT by Stonewall Jackson (The Hunt for FRed November. 11/04/08)
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To: Neville72
Fred Thompson bump to the top (double entendre).

Nice to see McCainiac reaping his rewards.

8 posted on 07/03/2007 12:19:37 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Zimbabwe, leftist success story, the envy of Venezuela)
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To: Stonewall Jackson

Good or bad? Share some!


9 posted on 07/03/2007 12:20:29 PM PDT by Clam Digger (Have a safe & happy 4th!)
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To: Neville72

Stablizing with Fred at #1!


10 posted on 07/03/2007 12:21:53 PM PDT by hardback
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To: Neville72
Thompson’s numbers among the GOP faithful have been moving in the opposite direction. Sixty-four percent (64%) of GOP voters have a favorable opinion of the actor while just 12% have an unfavorable view.

Opposite direction depends on how you look at it right? 64 favorable this week compared to 66 favorable last week.
BUT
12% UNFAVORABLE this week compared to 18% last week.

So what does a 2% decline in favorables versus a 6% decline in UNfavorables mean? Is this "net-positive" news?
11 posted on 07/03/2007 12:23:37 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: Graybeard58

please give me a break.

Giuliani is not an ideal candidate, but at least he is not going to cut and run.

At the end of the day you have to support him just to keep Hillary/Obama/Edwards out.

Think it over.


12 posted on 07/03/2007 12:24:29 PM PDT by Retired Greyhound
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To: mmichaels1970

Statistical noise. Nothing significant about the changes in those numbers.


13 posted on 07/03/2007 12:27:05 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: Graybeard58
I cannot vote for a democrat and I cannot vote for Giuliani.

We have six months and Fred's going in the right direction, I'm upbeat about this, now.

14 posted on 07/03/2007 12:27:51 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Zimbabwe, leftist success story, the envy of Venezuela)
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To: Retired Greyhound
At the end of the day you have to support him just to keep Hillary/Obama/Edwards out.

You might, I don't.

I will not vote for Rudy under any circumstances.

15 posted on 07/03/2007 12:28:58 PM PDT by Graybeard58 (Remember and pray for SSgt. Matt Maupin - MIA/POW- Iraq since 04/09/04)
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To: Clam Digger
I got my bumper stickers about two weeks ago. My comments were more or less:


The ACTOR????

I don't live in the most informed community, but I do my best.
16 posted on 07/03/2007 12:29:26 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: Graybeard58
Let’s hope you don’t have that choice, but IF you do, just ask yourself, our troops are going to have one or the other as their commander in chief, who would you rather have in the proverbial foxhole?
17 posted on 07/03/2007 12:29:37 PM PDT by mnehring (Virtus Junxit Mors Non Separabit)
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To: mnehrling
I cannot vote for anyone who endorses the murder of innocents.

Ultimately, I have to answer to a higher power than the President of the United States.

18 posted on 07/03/2007 12:33:14 PM PDT by Graybeard58 (Remember and pray for SSgt. Matt Maupin - MIA/POW- Iraq since 04/09/04)
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To: Graybeard58
Luckily, we have enough people that think like you we won’t have to worry about having that choice.. if it comes down to it, however, I am different in that I would vote for Rudy (gag) because I would be voting for the overall platform and keeping the Rs means at least one step closer, versus a D platform is one step further away from ending this.
19 posted on 07/03/2007 12:35:20 PM PDT by mnehring (Virtus Junxit Mors Non Separabit)
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To: Neville72
...[McCain's] fervent support for the unpopular immigration reform bill may have been the final straw that doomed his campaign

MAY HAVE BEEN???? Understatement of the day

20 posted on 07/03/2007 12:39:24 PM PDT by Hoffer Rand
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