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A Civil War No One Wants (Pakistan)
Strategypage ^ | 7/3/07

Posted on 07/03/2007 7:35:12 AM PDT by Valin

Pakistan is facing a civil war between the military (representing about ten percent of the population), the Islamic militants (about 30 percent) and the secular political parties (60 percent). The military groups are the most disciplined, and are well funded by a military business empire (an outgrowth of military foundations established to provide pensions and such for veterans). The Islamic militants are the most poor and ill educated, with most of their supporters in the tribal areas. The political parties are crippled by partisanship and corruption, but are currently more united and focused by a desire to avoid a religious dictatorship, or a military one. The Islamic militants are trying to use terror to take over. The political parties use large demonstrations and strikes. The military has police and troops. No one wants a civil war, but everyone wants to run the country.

July 1, 2007: Police in southwest Pakistan have arrested eight members of a gang that supplied explosives, detonators and remote control devices for Taliban and Islamic terrorist bombs. The gang gathered the material from underground and legitimate sources in the more populous Punjab province, then sold it to Taliban groups along the Afghan border, and Islamic terrorists throughout the country. The gang members used to belong to an Islamic radical group, but found the bomb materials business a more lucrative endeavor. Suicide bomb attacks, mostly in neighboring Afghanistan, have increased enormously over there last three years. In 2005, there were only 25 attacks. Last year there were 140, and, so far this year, 2007 was shaping up to be even worse. But with the destruction of this gang, will cut off bomb making supplies, for a while at least. But as long as the Taliban have the cash, someone else will step up to sell them the weapons they want.

June 30, 2007: Pakistan faces a crises as thousands of Islamic militants in the "Red Mosque" complex in the capital, defy the government. The mosque is now under siege, but the militants threaten to use suicide bombers, protected by human shields (the youngest students of the mosque religious school) to break out. The leaders of the mosque are calling for jihad against the government, and the establishment of a religious dictatorship in Pakistan.

June 28, 2007: China is not happy with the way Islamic militants recently treated Chinese staff and customers at a massage parlor in the capital. The Pakistani government said it would improve security, especially against attacks by Islamic militants offended by the "immoral customs of infidel Chinese". China is Pakistan's largest, and most reliable, supplier of weapons.

June 27, 2007: Three Islamic terrorists died when the roadside bomb they were planting along the Afghan border, exploded prematurely. The road was used by the army for regular patrols. In eastern India, Maoists rebels attacked railroad stations, and other railroad property.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: pakistan

1 posted on 07/03/2007 7:35:14 AM PDT by Valin
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To: Valin
All I can say is that if it starts I hope we have a set of keys to the nuke bunker they have there. If not then I say we preemptively strike the site over and over and over until nothing but glowing dust is left there, pay some reparations to whoever is left standing and call it a day.
2 posted on 07/03/2007 7:52:27 AM PDT by Abathar (Proudly catching hell for posting without reading the article since 2004)
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To: Valin

Things are going to heck in a hand basket over there this morning.


3 posted on 07/03/2007 8:00:57 AM PDT by armymarinemom (My sons freed Iraqi and Afghan Honor Roll students.)
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To: armymarinemom

Link? Thanks


4 posted on 07/03/2007 8:07:14 AM PDT by Valin (History takes time. It is not an instant thing.)
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To: Valin

I guess i’m pulling for Musharraf here, only because of his western ties and because there are nukes involved.

However, American troops should have been able to roll in here a long time ago.


5 posted on 07/03/2007 8:13:58 AM PDT by Retired Greyhound
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To: Valin

7-11 is deeply saddened


6 posted on 07/03/2007 8:19:58 AM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Happiness is a down sleeping bag)
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To: armymarinemom; Valin; Abathar; SandRat; NormsRevenge; Grampa Dave; SierraWasp; blam; SunkenCiv; ...

Somebody,....get the keys to the Nukes....


7 posted on 07/03/2007 8:31:35 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The DemonicRATS believe ....that the best decisions are always made after the fact.)
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To: Abathar

South Africa had nukes. When they saw the writing on the wall they disarmed themselves of nukes. Pakistan will do the same. (Or our future world history will be somewhat limited.)


8 posted on 07/03/2007 8:40:10 AM PDT by RightWhale (It's Brecht's donkey, not mine)
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To: Valin
June 27, 2007: Three Islamic terrorists died when the roadside bomb they were planting along the Afghan border, exploded prematurely.

I guess someone had to be on the bottom of the 'Making Roadside Bombs 101' class.

9 posted on 07/03/2007 8:59:49 AM PDT by Inquisitive1 (I know nothing except the fact of my ignorance - Socrates)
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To: Abathar
"All I can say is that if it starts I hope we have a set of keys to the nuke bunker they have there. If not then I say we preemptively strike the site over and over and over until nothing but glowing dust is left there, pay some reparations to whoever is left standing and call it a day."

We'd have to hurry just to beat the Indians to the first punch.

10 posted on 07/03/2007 10:15:22 AM PDT by blam (Secure the border and enforce the law)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
The political parties are crippled by partisanship and corruption, but are currently more united and focused by a desire to avoid a religious dictatorship, or a military one. The Islamic militants are trying to use terror to take over. The political parties use large demonstrations and strikes. The military has police and troops. No one wants a civil war, but everyone wants to run the country.
Hey, I don't wanna. ;') The political parties (other than the pro-theocracy parties, which don't seem to be mentioned in the excerpt, hmm, wonder why?) will fall behind the gov't in order to rub out the Islamic terrorist groups, and of course, the gov't will also continue to rub out the nationalist splinter movements that are here and there. Should be fun to watch (from a safe distance).
11 posted on 07/03/2007 10:25:01 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Time heals all wounds, particularly when they're not yours. Profile updated June 28, 2007.)
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To: blam
If anything would bring the factions together there would be for Indian to stick their nose in it. Asking Russia to do it would be ridiculous, who else but us would there be that has the stones to do it?
12 posted on 07/03/2007 10:41:19 AM PDT by Abathar (Proudly catching hell for posting without reading the article since 2004)
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To: Abathar
"If anything would bring the factions together there would be for Indian to stick their nose in it."

This is the biggest single threat to India. They will not ask for permission from anyone. Our satellite sensors will detect action after it is underway.

13 posted on 07/03/2007 10:45:23 AM PDT by blam (Secure the border and enforce the law)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
"June 28, 2007: China is not happy with the way Islamic militants recently treated Chinese staff and customers at a massage parlor in the capital."
Boy. That is really rare. heheh.
14 posted on 07/04/2007 7:15:52 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Hunter in 2008)
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To: RightWhale

Who in Pakistan will do the same???The military(of which Musharraf is just a figurehead) & the Islamists feed off each other,while wider discontent & anger spread throughout Pakistan on a variety of counts,which most Westerners have not strained to understand.Pakistan is heading for implosion,but most likely not the kind that most people expect.


15 posted on 07/05/2007 7:35:10 PM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
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To: sukhoi-30mki
implosion,but most likely not the kind that most people expect

Easy to say what it won't. Hard to say what it will.

16 posted on 07/06/2007 7:31:09 AM PDT by RightWhale (It's Brecht's donkey, not mine)
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