Posted on 06/27/2007 5:39:39 AM PDT by jhpigott
WAR PREPARATIONS AND WAR STRATEGY IN THE MIDDLE EAST by J. R. Nyquist
The Syrian army has been mobilized and is digging defensive positions. Syrian military leaders have been meeting with Iranian military leaders to coordinate war preparations. The Russians and Chinese have been sending significant arms shipments to Syria, including advanced MiG-31 fighters, Chinese-made C-802 anti-ship missiles, Metis-M and Kornet anti-tank missiles (used to stop the Israeli offensive in Lebanon last year), and sophisticated anti-air missiles. A new generation of Russian weapons, fielded after the “collapse” of the Soviet Union, have strengthened Syria’s overall military position. It is not that Syria can defeat Israel in a ground war. It is a question of improved attrition capabilities. The Israeli military has a low tolerance for attrition.
The Syrians seem to expect an attack on their country. The Syrian government is allegedly moving sensitive state archives out of Damascus. Rockets are being sent to the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. What is going on? Is a major terrorist strike being contemplated against Israel? Will this strike involve chemical, biological or nuclear weapons? Will this strike implicate Syria? Without a simultaneous Egyptian attack on Israel from the south, Syria cannot successfully make war on Israel from the north. And yet, Syria feels that war is coming. It’s as if the Syrians know something is going to happen. Some analysts believe the Syrians and Iranians are reacting to the U.S. troop surge in Iraq. There is talk of a new clandestine U.S. strategy of tilting against Iran and Syria, of favoring Sunni groups in Iraq. The Syrians and Iranians are allies, and might be worried about an American air campaign against them. The best strategy, in reaction, would be to begin a war against Israel. The Americans must not be perceived as working directly with the Israelis against a Muslim or Arab country. Such a perception might seriously erode America’s standing with Arab allies, and further hinder the Bush administration’s effort in Iraq.
Iran and Syria may be militarily weak compared to Israel and the United States, but political cracks have appeared on the U.S. side. Washington may prove helpless. The Middle East is a powder keg, ready to explode. The Israelis and the Americans want peace. But every olive branch has proved a snare. The Syrians and their Iranian allies want blood. And blood they shall have. The Bush administration says the Syrians are “fueling the war in Iraq.” The Iranians are doing the same. These regional powers seek to benefit from America’s Iraq invasion, and they expect to expand their power when America inevitably retreats. Debka File has reported on the sudden and intensive coordination between Iranian and Syrian military leaders. Two high-ranking Iranian military delegations visited Damascus recently to coordinate plans for a future Middle East war. The Syrians and Iranians intend to “intensify their terrorist operations against U.S. and British troops.”
Iran and Syria have a mutual defense pact. Both are being supplied with Russian and Chinese weapons, and both are expecting a war by the end of summer. How will the war start? Perhaps it will begin with an American preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Perhaps the troop surge has convinced them of Bush’s aggressive intentions. But the troop surge has proved disappointing. More likely, the Syrians and Iranians think that Bush is politically crippled and incapable of a major offensive. If the Bush administration were consistent and logical, and completely contemptuous of public opinion, then an attack on Syria and Iraq could occur. Some have argued that President Bush is actively preparing for a wider war in the Middle East. But this is doubtful.
The strategy of Iran and Syria, like the strategy of Muslim terrorists, is manipulated by Moscow and Beijing. It is Moscow’s timetable that carries the most weight. Moscow supplies the needed weapons, and the intelligence assessments. According to the late Alexander Litvinenko, a former KGB officer assassinated by Russian operatives last November, Moscow wants America to be bogged down in a Middle East war. Top leaders in al Qaeda are Russian agents. The Russians trained many terrorist leaders in Gaza and the West Bank. And Russia is well served by growing violence in Lebanon. Middle East conflict keeps oil prices high, and that makes money for oil-rich Russia. The American economy is thereby weakened.
War is a good thing for powers that seek to exploit trouble.
It’s war then.
ping
Good article, but the author ignores the South American portion of Russian strategy....
Hugo hasn’t been visiting Iran and Syria and Moscow every few months because he likes the off-season rates.....
Those who glibly dismiss Hugo as an ineffectual buffoon (inclucing, sadly, many here on FR) are missing the point....
sounds like a mish mash of BS and rumour to me.
russia controls al qaeda? I dont think so
ping
this Nyquist guy is a bit of a nut when it comes to Russia. He still thinks its 1982 and the Russians are going to invade Western Europe. However, i think his read on Iran and Syria are pretty good
Russian Arms Help Chavez Launch Guerrilla Warfare Against USA
The Intelligence Daily ^ | June 26, 2007
Posted on 06/26/2007 1:43:02 PM EDT by Fennie
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1856602/posts
I think Russia/USSR is and has been a strong enabler of ME/Arab Terror...from the KGB training provided in Moscow to Arafat and many other terrorist. USSR never hesitated to support our enemies in Central America/Korea/Vietnam... and continue to brazingly do so in IRan & Syria.
Thanks to the piss poor leadership in the US we have arrived at the perfect storm...Catch up on your research with some history of the MidEast + terrorism + Russia + PLO + Nasser + the 6 Day War + Suez Canal...
LGF has a thread discussing this. Seems some believe we are on the precipice of a real WWIV.
http://www.the-american-interest.com/ai2/article.cfm?Id=289&MId=14
Clausewitz :
In affairs so dangerous as war, false ideas proceeding from kindness of heart are precisely the worst. . . . The fact that slaughter is a horrifying spectacle must make us take war more seriously, but not provide an excuse for gradually blunting our swords in the name of humanity. Sooner or later someone will come along with a sharp sword and hack off our arms.
War is a fact of the human social condition neither man wishes were so. Sun-Tzu, concerned with war on the highest strategic level, affirms that the greatest warrior is one who calculates so well that he never needs to fight.
At least we are alreadp in position.
” He still thinks its 1982 and the Russians are going to invade Western Europe. “
So, unfortunately, does Putin....
1967 all over again ?
That was my first thought. If Syria keeps this up, Israel will strike first as they did in 1967. Purely for defensive reasons of course.
And what's with Iran acting all uppity with their nuclear program? Don't they know that only Israel is allowed to have nuclear weapons? This creates "stability", as evidenced by today's peace in the Middle East.
Besides, Israel can't exercise the Sampson Option (as they threatened the U.S. with doing in 1973) if other countries can retaliate in kind. Hmmmm. Israel may have to (gasp) actually sit down and negotiate a peace! The horror!
I agree. He's extremely dangerous, much more so even than Castro because he's better connected on the international level and has serious territorial expansion goals within Latin America. Not to mention the goals of the many Iranians who are in his government.
You don’t even understand what the “Sampson Option” even is ... how can anyone take you seriously?
I bet you don't even know that Isreal threatened Kissinger and Nixon with using it in order to get the military supplies they needed during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
“That was my first thought. If Syria keeps this up, Israel will strike first as they did in 1967. Purely for defensive reasons of course.
And what’s with Iran acting all uppity with their nuclear program? Don’t they know that only Israel is allowed to have nuclear weapons? This creates “stability”, as evidenced by today’s peace in the Middle East.
Besides, Israel can’t exercise the Sampson Option (as they threatened the U.S. with doing in 1973) if other countries can retaliate in kind. Hmmmm. Israel may have to (gasp) actually sit down and negotiate a peace! The horror!”
Maybe they will, maybe the will not. I don’t claim that Israel is perfect; far from it. But to suggest that Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, etc. have purely peaceful intents borders on asinine
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