Posted on 06/24/2007 12:49:44 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
How did Sen. John McCain, the onetime front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, come to this? New polls this week showed support for him plummeting in two key early-voting states. Tied for fifth place in Iowa, with 6 percent. Falling to fourth place in South Carolina, with 7 percent. Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted both polls of likely Republican voters, which had error margins of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
This after an ongoing Senate debate on immigration that highlights McCain's opposition to his party's base on a hot-button issue, and the informal entry into the race of former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who shot ahead of the Arizona senator in state polls and several national surveys.
In a new Mason-Dixon poll released today, Thompson has 25 percent support among Republicans who are considered likely to attend the Nevada nominating caucus, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 20 percent and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 17 percent. McCain is fourth with 8 percent.
McCain campaign skeptical
McCain also is trying to recover from disappointing first-quarter fundraising, which prompted a reshuffling of his finance operation.
"McCain's campaign has sunk like a rock," said Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "Fundamentally, Republicans do not trust him and they don't like him."
A McCain spokesman dismissed the polls and said the campaign's organization in the states surveyed was strong enough to ride out the "peaks and valleys" of a long campaign.
"Mason-Dixon polling in Iowa and South Carolina in no way resembles any other polling done by anyone in either of those two states," spokesman Danny Diaz said. "It in no way reflects reality."
That's unlikely; Mason-Dixon polls of key states in 2004 and 2006 proved to be remarkably close to the elections' final results.
"I can see how the McCain campaign would be disappointed in these numbers," said Larry Harris, principal at Mason-Dixon. "But just look at our track record on accuracy."
The health of McCain's campaign will get another measure in 10 days, with the end of second-quarter fundraising. McCain had said he hoped to improve on his third-place finish in the first quarter, when he raised $13 million.
Diaz wouldn't say how much the campaign has raised so far or what its goal is. But McCain has dropped most public campaigning this month to focus on fundraising in private meetings around the nation.
Voters drifting away
"We expect to do better than we did last quarter," Diaz said. "We'll have the resources we need to run the campaign."
McCain was perceived as the Republican front-runner for much of the past two years, and the 2000-campaign insurgent systematically wooed party regulars this time around in his drive to succeed President Bush. Yet he apparently hasn't captured the imagination of many Republican voters.
"I cannot think of anything that's going to keep McCain current or new," said Don Aiesi, a political scientist at Furman University in Greenville, S.C. "What's new that he's saying that will keep a base constituency together? … You can't get anywhere if you're perceived to be in single digits."
Supporting Bush hurt
Immigration also helps remind Republican voters of their other disagreements with McCain, the so-called "loose cannon" who championed campaign-finance revisions that many conservatives oppose and criticized some Christian conservative leaders in 2000 as "agents of intolerance."
Even McCain's embrace of the Iraq war may be backfiring. While Republicans are more supportive of the war than Democrats are, recent polls show that they're growing weary of the Bush administration's approach. More than any other Republican candidate, McCain has tied himself to Bush's troop-surge strategy as the key to success in Iraq.
That's all helped to dampen enthusiasm for McCain's campaign, opening the door for Thompson, whose presence near the top of polls coincides with McCain's drop.
There are still seven months before the voting starts. McCain partisans note that the hottest Republican candidates are all over television: Romney with paid ads in Iowa and New Hampshire; Thompson with free media nationwide due to his long flirtation with running and his celebrity status.
>>A McCain spokesman dismissed the polls and said the campaign’s organization in the states surveyed was strong enough to ride out the “peaks and valleys” of a long campaign.<<
More like falling off a cliff than “peaks and valleys.” Bush and McCain have burned their bridges.
It still troubles me that 90% of his support is now Thompson’s.... That’s one albatross Fred does NOT need.
Just say NO to Illegal Alien Amnesty!! Keep calling!! It’s NOT OVER!!
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Falling off of a cliff is right. And I can’t imagine his attacks on Romney are helping him, either. Quite frankly, he’s just coming across as bitter and out-of-touch.
If McCain was going to go after someone, he should have sent the thunder down on Giuliani, who was already getting it from the media. Attacking Romney, who is running on a more conservative platform than McCain, wasn’t and isn’t going to get him anywhere.
I’m of course addressing the minor quibbles. McCain’s biggest downfall is his support for amnesty. That alone will exterminate him, though he might get some life support courtesy of businesses who like slave labor.
It still amazes me how Fred always comes out of any given poll either first or second when he's not even official yet. It only proves that America wants change alright, but not the way the dems think it does. McCain, I don't think you stand a chance any more.
I don't agree with the article on that statement at all. I think they are dead wrong on that one.
McCaniac has always been bitter, rude, and contentious,
and it is best that he goes down the tube.
We do not need a hothead like him.
“It still troubles me that 90% of his support is now Thompson’s..”
I’m not. It’s just another red flag.
My take on Fred....
As far as amnesty for illegal aliens goes...like Bush, he says he’s against it, but in the same breath says more specifically...
“there’s no good solution”, and he says
“then we’ll talk about what to do about other (illegal aliens)”, and he says
we have to “figure out some way to make some differentiation between the kind of people that we have here” (illegal aliens), and continues by saying
“certainly no amnesty or nothing blanket like that”
and his position on amnesty could not be more questionable when he says, ““You’re going to have to, in some way, work out a deal where they (illegal aliens) can have some aspirations of citizenship”.”
Smacks of amnesty to me.
When he says here is that since he believes there is no good solution, he won’t give all illegals ‘blanket’ amnesty, but we will have to settle for a solution that will differentiate between what ‘kind’ of illegal aliens are here and ‘those’ will be given aspirations of citizenship, a deal, which is amnesty.
Fred is non specific about border security, amnesty for a non-specific number of non-specified group of illegal aliens....add NAFTA and CFR along with the endorsement by George P Bush and other Bush teamers, too many red flags and so I question question whether or not he is the OBL/NAU candidate because don’t think for one stinking moment that those &*$%#) OBLers don’t have one. They do.
FredHeads:
TransTexas Corridorer and GWBer, Jerry Patterson, who claims he didn’t even know FT, but played a big role in his push to the front. He says FT is not just running “to be President”.
No?
“I’ve never craved the job of president, but I want to do some things that only a president can do.” FT
Really? And with who’s advice and assistance?...
GWBer and Federal Reserver, Larry Lindsey
GWBer and Federalist Society, David McIntosh
GWBer and OBLer, Ed Gillespie
Chamber of Commercer, John Khachigian “The star power clearly works with new audiences, if you haven’t seen it before’” It surely does.
I’m sure that’s just the tip of the iceberg, but with folks from Fed. Reserve, Federalist Society, TTC, and Chambers of Commerce...again, one might begin to wonder if Fred Thompson isn’t the OBL’s Candidate for 2008.
Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, shame on me.
If the dems nominate Hillary, Gore, Obama or Edwards; Fred Thompson is a s good as inaugurated president.
It still troubles me that 90% of his support is now Thompson’s.... That’s one albatross Fred does NOT need.
Fred and John have the same grades on various votes. Why would you think that they wouldn’t have the same supporters. I think they are pretty much the same except that at this time Fred seems a little more stable. Both have divorces, both are old, both were Senators, etc...
If the dems nominate Hillary, Gore, Obama or Edwards; Fred Thompson is a s good as inaugurated president.
Than God Bless America because we will need it.
Some talking head annalist predicted that all the dems that didn't vote last election will turn out this time for Hitlory and she will win the presidency. He may be right about that which is why we need a strong republican turn out as well. People who don’t pay attention to whats going on and don’t vote need to move out of this country.
“It still troubles me that 90% of his support is now Thompson’s..”
I’m not. It’s just another red flag.
My take on Fred....
As far as amnesty for illegal aliens goes...like Bush, he says he’s against it, but in the same breath says more specifically...
“there’s no good solution”, and he says
“then we’ll talk about what to do about other (illegal aliens)”, and he says
we have to “figure out some way to make some differentiation between the kind of people that we have here” (illegal aliens), and continues by saying
“certainly no amnesty or nothing blanket like that”
and his position on amnesty could not be more questionable when he says, ““You’re going to have to, in some way, work out a deal where they (illegal aliens) can have some aspirations of citizenship”.”
Smacks of amnesty to me.
When he says here is that since he believes there is no good solution, he won’t give all illegals ‘blanket’ amnesty, but we will have to settle for a solution that will differentiate between what ‘kind’ of illegal aliens are here and ‘those’ will be given aspirations of citizenship, a deal, which is amnesty.
Fred is non specific about border security, amnesty for a non-specific number of non-specified group of illegal aliens....add NAFTA and CFR along with the endorsement by George P Bush and other Bush teamers, too many red flags and so I question question whether or not he is the OBL/NAU candidate because don’t think for one stinking moment that those &*$%#) OBLers don’t have one. They do.
FredHeads:
TransTexas Corridorer and GWBer, Jerry Patterson, who claims he didn’t even know FT, but played a big role in his push to the front. He says FT is not just running “to be President”.
No?
“I’ve never craved the job of president, but I want to do some things that only a president can do.” FT
Really? And with who’s advice and assistance?...
GWBer and Federal Reserver, Larry Lindsey
GWBer and Federalist Society, David McIntosh
GWBer and OBLer, Ed Gillespie
Chamber of Commercer, John Khachigian “The star power clearly works with new audiences, if you haven’t seen it before’” It surely does.
I’m sure that’s just the tip of the iceberg, but with folks from Fed. Reserve, Federalist Society, TTC, and Chambers of Commerce...again, connect the dots.
Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, shame on me.
I’m all for Hunter...but I don’t think I could vote for a Thompson/Hunter ticket. Too many red flags on Fred.
The Arizona Star may want some boosterism for their hometown boy, so let's educate them.
1. McCain was never the frontrunner, that was a media invention.
2. McCain never had a chance in hell to win the GOP nomination. He could've won the Media nomination, but never the GOP.3. McCain has had 6 years of Limbaugh parodies out there, that's the GOP base of voters.
4. GOP voters have seen McCain again and again attack them, attack the President, attack the GOP to kiss up to the media friends. GOP voters hate the MSM. Bad move John.
5. The McCain-Kennedy Amnesty Bill simply puts the spotlight on everything about McCain that GOP voters despise and it is GOP voters, who decide, who gets the nomination, not the leftwing media.
OK, Arizona Star, get the picture? I wrote McCain years ago to give up any thought of the GOP nomination, he would never get it. This Shamensty is the final nail in McCain's political career. If he runs for re-election, he'll have a primary challenger and McCain will lose in the primary. McCain is too arrogant to withdraw, so that's what's going to happen. McCain, the totalitarian maverick will finally be out. McCainism and the McCain-wannabes Lindsey Grahamnesty and Chuck Hagel are going down too. Good riddance.
McCain, great POW, crummy politician. Duke Cunningham, great pilot, indeed an ace, fell to temptation and is in prison.
The wheels are comming off the Straightjacket Express.
Go home, Johnny, go home. We knew you as well as we ever would desire. Go home, Johnny, go home and retire.
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