Posted on 06/22/2007 5:59:27 AM PDT by jellybean
A daily round-up of Fred news.
WEBCommentary Contributor
Author: Bruce Walker
Date: June 22, 2007
Anyone who reads my columns regularly knows that I was the first pundit to propose that Fred Thompson is the next Reagan, and I did that back in January 2007. It is a good idea that is getting better all the time. The political savants within the Republican Party, from George Allen to Alfonse D’Amato, are already endorsing a political candidate who has not even yet announced that he is a candidate. The Fred Thompson movement is not simply the biggest, genuine grassroots draft since Ronald Reagan, but in terms of the spontaneity, the Fred Thompson movement easily surpasses the grassroots movement of Ronald Reagan, Dwight Eisenhower or any Republican since, perhaps, Theodore Roosevelt.He is not, of course, Ronald Reagan – no one is and no one ever has been in the history of the Republic – but in terms of his ability to move conservatives without being demonized, Fred Thompson is, in that sense, truly the next Reagan. I believe that his nomination is a foregone conclusion, and that the only real issue remaining is his running mate.
Senator D’Amato thinks that Rudy would be just right. I doubt Rudy would take second place (although I do not doubt that he will support a Thompson nomination – the former New York mayor has been treated with respect and friendship by conservatives, and although Rudy fights hard, he also fights fair and reciprocates loyalty and respect, and he also thinks that terrorists are trying to kill us.)
I have toyed with nominees like Mike Huckabee, articulate and likeable, or Mitt Romney, who would be plenty young enough to run for president in eight years and is a very appealing candidate. Senator McCain would not accept second place and he really is too old to be vice president.
Perhaps Fred Thompson, in selecting his nominee, will do what he has shown an ability to do throughout his non-candidacy: think outside the box. In the war on terrorism, who are we really fighting? Enemies like al-Qaida are hopelessly weaker than American military forces and they do not even attempt to win militarily. What sort of war are we fighting? I can answer that by quoting another famous Republican president, who said “Now we are engaged in a great civil war.” The president, of course, was Abraham Lincoln and the speech from which that quote comes is the Gettysburg Address.
Indeed, we are engaged in a great civil war. Leftists in America are the only enemies, the only traitors, who can cause us to lose this great civil war, a war that we cannot lose. In 1864, Abraham Lincoln, running for re-election did an extraordinary thing, the only president ever to do this: he reached across party lines and selected a pro-Union Democrat to be his running mate.
Might Fred Thompson do that? I think he should consider it, and the obvious candidate would be Senator Lieberman, the Democrat vice presidential candidate eight years ago. Why Joe Lieberman? First, his credentials as a Democrat and as a liberal cannot be questioned except by the looniest of the loony Left. Eight years ago Democrats were moving heaven and earth to make him vice president.
Second, Lieberman supports the war and understands what is at stake. He would be a loyal vice president on national security issues and on the war against global terrorism. Joe nearly lost his Senate seat rather than lose his principles on the war.
Third, Lieberman and Thompson both personify decency and integrity. No one has even seriously challenged the honesty, the moral seriousness, the patriotism or depth of these two senators.
Fourth, Joe Lieberman could genuinely help put states like Connecticut, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and perhaps New York in play. He would also help with Jewish voters in states like Florida and California.
Fifth, the “knock” on Lieberman would be that he is to the Left on domestic issues. This is a bit unfair. Senator Lieberman reached across the aisle and worked with social conservatives on issues like child pornography. When Lieberman was the Democrat nominee in 2000, Republican senators noted that he had worked seriously and thoughtfully with them on social conservative issues.
Sixth, Lieberman would be replaced by a Republican senator if he leaves the Senate and becomes vice president. Right now the balance of power in the Senate hangs by a thread and one more Republican senator could easily return control of the Senate to Republicans.
Seventh and last and most important, Americans are truly sick of partisanship and truly sick of Washington. Joe Lieberman is an independent who is a nominal Democrat. Fred Thompson is a man who left Washington out of disgust with its partisanship and pandering. The man who left Washington and the man who ran for re-election as an independent could present an absolutely devastating theme for a campaign against Democrat nominees who do nothing but carp about Republicans. Every presidential campaign promises to “bring America together.” This ticket really could.
WASHINGTON – Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney dominate the 10-man field for the Republican presidential nomination, with Fred Thompson threatening to roil an unsettled race.Rare circumstances serve as the backdrop.
The sitting Republican president and party standard-bearer, George W. Bush, has abysmal job-performance ratings. Vice President Cheney doesn’t want the job and there’s no natural heir, a significant departure for a party that historically has nominated the next in line.
The result is one of the most fluid GOP races in half a century.
Giuliani, a former New York mayor; McCain, an Arizona senator; and Romney, an ex-governor of Massachusetts, are the strongest contenders. They lead the field in organization, endorsements and money.
But Thompson, the former Tennessee senator and “Law & Order” actor, casts an enormous shadow and placed a close third behind Giuliani and McCain in a recent Associated Press-Ipsos poll. All but certain to enter the race, he’s become a favorite of conservatives who are underwhelmed with the current field.
Underdog candidates – former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and five other long shots – are looking to catch fire in certain states.
The Iraq war, immigration, terrorism and abortion are the hottest issues.
To win, a candidate must collect a majority of delegates – 1,255 to be exact. That number, like the date of each state’s contest and the delegate allotments, is in flux. Voting begins in January. Here’s an early look at the race:
IOWA
•Jan. 14 (32 delegates)
Romney has emerged as the one to beat, and his strategy calls for winning the caucuses to ride a momentum wave to New Hampshire. Unknown here before 2007, he’s spent $1 million in TV ads and direct mail to introduce himself, visited 11 times and hired veteran operatives. McCain is vigorously campaigning here after skipping Iowa in 2000 and has built an organization that rivals Romney’s. McCain, 70, is trying to overcome his unpopular support for immigration legislation, the perception that he is yesterday’s candidate and doubts that he’ll be a loyal Republican. Giuliani has sent mixed signals about how hard he plans to compete here. His support for abortion rights and gay rights alienates some conservatives. Both Giuliani and McCain bowed out of a high-profile straw poll in August. Thompson could find success in Iowa. Lesser-knowns pinning their hopes on the state haven’t broken through. Brownback may have the best chance and is courting the religious right.
NEVADA
•Jan. 19 (33 delegates)
The state presents a new dynamic for Republican hopefuls, given that it recently decided to hold its Republican caucuses earlier than in past years. Giuliani, McCain and Romney are trying to determine how hard to compete in Nevada; the focus has been elsewhere. Nevertheless, all three have raised money here and rank well in surveys. So does Thompson. From neighboring Arizona, McCain may have the best chance to capture Nevada. He’s a frequent visitor, and he can readily address Western topics such as water rights, American Indian issues, property rights, energy development and immigration. Nevada ranks in the top five of states with the most Mormons and, as a member of that faith, Romney could benefit. But McCain isn’t ceding any ground and has dispatched Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., a Mormon and an ally, to campaign in Nevada. Giuliani has scooped up some high-profile endorsements. One unknown is how the immigration issue plays in the Hispanic-heavy state.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
•Jan. 22 (32 delegates)
The state should be McCain’s to lose, given that the senator bested Bush here by 18 percentage points in 2000. He is universally known and has an existing network of backers. But he’s fighting the notion that he’s different from the rebel the state once embraced, and he’s facing a serious challenge from Romney. The Bostonian has a vacation home here and is well known as the GOP governor of liberal Massachusetts. His $1 million in TV ads have focused on a conservative message as he runs to the right of his rivals. Another Northeasterner, Giuliani, also has appeal here, with his moderate-to-liberal record. Independents are a wild card. In the last contested GOP primary eight years ago, they voted en masse in the GOP primary and helped McCain win. This time, the state is trending Democratic and independents could choose to participate in the star-studded Democratic contest. None of the long-shots is gaining steam.
FLORIDA
•Jan. 29 (112 delegates)
The early advantage goes to Giuliani. The delegate-rich Sunshine State has a Republican electorate most amenable to his moderate-to-liberal views and plenty of retired New Yorkers. Giuliani, who has a double-digit lead in state surveys, has focused on solidifying support and building an organization here, perhaps more so than anywhere else. Giuliani also is a celebrity who attracts cash, and strong fundraising is crucial with Florida’s expensive media markets. Romney is giving chase to Giuliani and has the support of several allies to popular former Gov. Jeb Bush. McCain, too, is a regular in Florida, and campaigned for current Gov. Charlie Crist last fall. Three variables loom large: the influence of the strong-polling Thompson, how immigration plays in the Cuban and Haitian bastions and the fallout of the state’s decision to move up the primary in violation of party rules. The GOP says states that cross it will lose half their delegates.
SOUTH CAROLINA
•Feb. 2 (46 delegates)
The Southern state is ripe for Thompson to bigfoot the top-tier contenders who are locked in a three-way race but haven’t won over influential conservatives. A state survey shows the all-but-declared candidate essentially tied with Giuliani. McCain’s state campaign is a powerhouse in organization and endorsements, but his unpopular immigration stance and lingering resentment from a bitter 2000 race complicate his quest. He counts the state’s popular Sen. Lindsey Graham as a close friend and adviser. Romney has a strong presence and has spent money on TV ads and direct mail. But his Mormon faith is an obstacle in a state heavily populated by Christian evangelicals. Giuliani is popular with moderates along the coast; conservatives elsewhere don’t like his support for abortion rights and gun control. Huckabee is a possible dark horse, given his credentials as a Southern Baptist preacher and former governor. But some voters aren’t convinced he can win in November. Enter Thompson, a Tennessean with a right-leaning Senate résumé.
MEGA TUESDAY
•Feb. 5 (at least 831 delegates)
It’s all about momentum and money on Mega Tuesday; candidates will need heavy doses of both to compete in more than a dozen states holding contests. Retail politicking will give way to ultra-expensive TV advertising. More than 50 percent of the GOP delegates will have been chosen when voting ends on what amounts to a national primary day. If Giuliani survives earlier states, he could be a force given the roster of Northeastern states where he has ties and delegate-rich states where he could have appeal – California (173), New York (102), New Jersey (52) and Connecticut (30). The Giuliani camp has suggested the rapid-succession primary calendar may dilute the importance of leadoff states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Thus, he also has been spending time in Feb. 5 states and paying particular attention to California. There, and in some other states, candidates can win delegates congressional district by congressional district, and they may try to cherry pick the districts offering the most delegates. McCain and Romney contend the compressed calendar makes early states even more important. Even so, they, too, have ventured to California and are establishing operations in other Mega Tuesday states. Romney was born and raised in Michigan, and he’s angling to triumph there. McCain won the state in 2000 and wants a repeat. Thompson’s Tennessee and nearby Georgia also vote that day. Arkansas, where Huckabee was governor for 10 1/2 years, is on the roster as well.
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From The Corner http://corner.nationalreview.com/
Late-Start Disadvantages Be Damned? [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Heads to Tennessee next week, then South Carolina, then New Hampshire (his first trip there as a potential presidential candidate).
I was in D.C. earlier this week, making some conservative rounds, and there really is Fred fever in the air — especially among some social conservatives, based on a very unscientific survey. Even a lot of those who are firmly in trust-but-verify mode are intrigued and excited by the prospect. Yesterday’s CAIR commentary I think is a good example of what it’s about — he’s confident enough to take on who needs to be taken on and calls it as he sees it. (One blogger’s reax: “The fact that Fred Thompson understands CAIR and questions its comings and goings is enough for me, thank you.”) If he does this on the trail, as a candidate, he could prove to be unstoppable in the primaries.
And we know he’s a better performer than Hillary.
06/22 06:59 AM
The Daily FRead is here!
Thank you for posting this. :)
| State | Rank | Source | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 1st 2nd [Guiliani] 2nd [Guiliani] |
Rasmussen USA Today/Gallup Harris |
6/19 6/19 6/14 |
| CA | 2nd (tie) [Guiliani, McCain] | Survey USA | 6/4 |
| FL | 2nd [Guiliani] 2nd [Guiliani] 1st |
Strategic Vision Insider Advanatge Datmar |
6/21 6/11 5/23 |
| IA | 2nd [Romney] 2nd [Romney] |
Mason Dixon Public Policy Polling |
6/19 6/4 |
| NC | 1st | Public Policy Polling | 6/7 |
| NH | 4th [Romney, McCain, Guiliani] 4th [Romney, McCain, Guiliani] 4th [Romney, McCain, Guiliani] |
University of New Hampshire Survey Center Mason Dixon Franklin Pierce College |
6/12 6/8 6/6 |
| NV | 3rd [Romney, Guiliani] 1st |
American Research Group Citizen Outreach/Battle Born News |
6/21 6/19 |
| SC | 1st 1st |
Mason Dixon Public Policy Polling |
6/17 6/4 |
| WA | 3rd [Guiliani, McCain] | Survey USA | 5/3 |
Thanks for doing this ... BTW, I note there appears to be someone missing from the “top tier”. Must be down on the border.
What if Iowa and New Hampshire both had parties, and nobody came?With no offense to my friends in those two states, I'm compelled to report that some Republican presidential candidates are toying with the idea of skipping the historic first two contests in the race for the GOP nomination. Former Mass Gov. Mitt Romney has put to good use the early support - especially money - he's enjoyed from many among the Republican "old establishment," including plenty of longtime Bush supporters.
Romney has flooded Iowa with TV campaign commercials. He's also put together a strong organizational team on the ground there.
Partly in recognition of this, top Romney rivals Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain have now withdrawn from the nonbinding "straw poll" vote scheduled for later this summer in Ames, Iowa.
Both men's polling numbers have dropped in Iowa. Plus, the Bush White House has hired away Giuliani's top political coordinator in Iowa.
Then there's the matter of Fred Thompson. The latest polling in Iowa shows Romney leading, with Giuliani and Thompson tied for second place. Thompson's sudden spike in the polls has been meteoric, following his comparatively modest statement that he would establish a presidential exploratory committee, as they're called. He isn't officially a candidate yet, and he hasn't been actively campaigning in Iowa or New Hampshire. The strategic wild card for all of these candidates is Florida's decision to move up its primary to Jan. 29. In response, South Carolina likely will hold its primary earlier, too.
To candidates perhaps already boxed out by Romney's early money in Iowa and his name-ID advantage in New Hampshire it's getting tempting to shift their intense focus to Florida and South Carolina.
Complicating matters, Florida, the state with the primary that will crown an early front runner just prior to the mega-state "Super Tuesday," has just made its already expensive primary campaign even more so.
On June 15, the Florida Legislature placed on the Jan. 29 presidential primary ballot a high-stakes proposed state constitutional amendment that would radically alter the way homestead property taxes are assessed.
This likely will cause a jolt in voter turnout for the Republican presidential primary. That probably means that running an effective presidential primary campaign there will now be even more expensive than ever. Gary Reese explains the dynamics of the intriguing situation in Florida at www.southernpoliticalreport.com.
It's quickly becoming more and more apparent that an earlier-than-ever primary campaign season means earlier-than-ever efforts by serious candidates to adequately staff their campaigns, conduct polling and touch all the other bases required to have a shot at winning these critical states. Now it's become not just a question of strategy, but of resources to implement that strategy.
Some campaigns are quietly wondering whether it will be time and money well spent to trudge through Iowa and New Hampshire for months of speaking to small gatherings of caucus members or voters, when South Carolina and Florida may decide who is the viable candidate heading into Super Tuesday.
Some GOP campaign strategists noticed Romney's boast that he's winning Iowa and New Hampshire. They wonder whether they should concede those states to Romney and focus their own efforts on bigger states where they are more competitive. Such radical chance-taking rarely happens. It looks too much like throwing in the towel. John McCain, for example, is slipping in the polls. He can only bow out of Iowa and New Hampshire if, say, front runner Giuliani does it first.
Giuliani and Thompson both may have compelling reasons to let Romney celebrate hollow victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. Witness the fact that Giuliani bagged the Iowa straw poll, and that he leads in the polls in both South Carolina and Florida. If one major candidate pulls out of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, others might follow.
Thompson especially seems capable of anything. If his poll numbers keep rising at the rate they have in recent weeks, he alone might be able to give Romney a genuine fight in Iowa. On the other hand, TV actor Thompson knows his Drama 101. He might just be the alpha hound dog that leads the pack in staking out South Carolina and Florida with a big, "Welcome South, y'all."
E-mail political columnist and former state Rep. Matt Towery at mtowery@insideradvantage.com.
You overlook or discount Newt. He will probably announce in September along with Fred. Newt is brilliant, very knowledgeable about history and politics, and he knows the ropes around Washington. He would be the perfect running mate for Fred.
I'm glad you like it. It's hard to gage how much interest there is for this format. I'll continue doing it as long as people are interested.
I’d rather see Newt as some sort of advisor or perhaps a Cabinet member.
Re: IA/NH
My thought is that these early states are either the beginning of Mitt’s campaign (breaking him out of 10% nationally).
Or, the End of Fred’s campaign (sewing up the nomination).
I got this in an Email this morning...
Dear Friends,
Just heard Great news!!! Senator Thompson will be making a swing through Nashville, Tuesday, June 26...then on to South Carolina and New Hampshire.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful for him to be greeted with a real Tennessee welcome so that anyone following his swing through these states will get the message (loud and clear) that this is a Favorite Son Tennesseans are proud to see moving toward the White House!
Details:
Lands at Mercury Air
Tuesday, June 26, 9:45 a.m.
Directions to Mercury Air — I 40E to Exit 216 B which is Donelson Pike, South (one exit past International Airport Exit). At first red light, turn right on Hangar Lane. Remain right. Mercury Air is on the right at 635 Hangar Lane. (Right, right, right...don’t you like the sound of that.)
Please, pass this along to anyone who might like to join us on Tuesday.
I also see him in that roll but he would be closer and have more stroke as VP plus he would be the head man in the Senate. He would also be a good President if the occasion arose.
"People have been asking about the next "Rally". It looks like this is it and Fred will be there.
Come greet Fred Thompson and show him we are proud to see him moving towards the White House!"
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
9:15AM
Mercury Air Center, Nashville International Airport
635 Hangar Lane, Nashville TN 37217
Donuts & Coffee provided, along with the chance to meet Fred!
Directions:
From I-40
take Donelson Pike, Exit 216, toward the Airport (south) Then right onto Hangar Lane - then stay to the right at the fork
Mercury Air Center, Nashville International Airport
635 Hangar Lane, Nashville TN 37217
I think Newt has already said he probably won’t be running. As I recall he said it’s now only about a 20% chance that he will.
Thanks for posting the chart. Looks like everyone is holding steady for now.
Straw poll, conducted via email. Not worth including in the summaries.
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