Posted on 06/14/2007 6:16:04 AM PDT by radar101
Yesterday, a GOP aide, who is one of my sources in the Senate, gave me the rundown on what's happening with the Senate immigration bill (this is the same person who I talked to last week about the bill).
First off, it does look like the Senate immigration bill is coming back. The conventional wisdom seems to be that it's going to be brought up right before the July 4th break, so that the Senate Republican leadership can try to use that as leverage to get votes (in other words, "vote for the bill or we'll have to waste your vacation time until you do").
This is despite the fact that the conservative leaders of the anti-amnesty movement are refusing to cooperate, and won't give Mitch McConnell a list of amendments that they want considered. My source tells me that the reason for this is that the game has now been rigged. McConnell is essentially promising to bring the amendments up in exchange for cloture votes, but he's publicly saying that they will strip any problematic amendments out in committee.
In other words, if the bill gets through the Senate and the House, the Democrats and the open borders Republicans will work together when the bills have to be reconciled in committee to strip out any amendments that the "grand bargainers" don't like. Therefore, at this point, it doesn't matter what amendments pass, because any tough enforcement provisions that slip through will be rendered toothless when the bills are reconciled.
My source also noted that the cloture vote to end debate will be the "real" vote on the bill because if debate is closed off, the bill is sure to pass. Then, what will happen is that the votes for the bill will be counted, and a few Senators who are afraid that their election prospects will be jeopardized by a "yes" vote, will be allowed to vote against the bill. This enables those Senators to tell their constituents that they voted against the bill, but it will still allow them to collect campaign contributions from lobbyists who have a better understanding of how things work, and know that the bill couldn't have been passed without their support. Put another way, they get to reap the rewards of supporting amnesty while telling the voters in their home states that they opposed the bill.
My source also let me know that the White House and the Senate leadership, and Trent Lott in particular, are pushing very hard for this bill.
I asked my source to speculate on why Lott was pushing so hard, and he said that Lott may be naive enough to think that this bill might help John McCain's presidential campaign. He told me that despite McCain's dip in the polls since the bill hit the news, it was hard to miss the fact that the biggest supporters of this bill in the Senate, Jon Kyl, Trent Lott, and Lindsey Graham, are all solidly behind McCain in '08.
Before we finished up, I asked my source what he thought the prospects of passage were. He stated that it was a toss up, but that the pro-amnesty side had the momentum. I asked how that could possibly be given the outpouring of anger against this bill, and he told me that a lot of moderates were afraid of being called racists by people like Michael Chertoff, Luis Gutierrez, and Fred Barnes. He also noted that the Senate has a very insulated, clubhouse like atmosphere, and that a lot of these pro-amnesty Senators seem to be more worried about getting the President or Trent Lott mad at them than enraging the voters in their states. In addition, he told me that he thinks a lot of these Senators have "drunk the DC Kool-Aid", and believe that they're better off passing a bad bill, even one that won't ultimately become law if, as expected, the House kills it, so that they can at least tell the voters in 2008 that they did something about immigration.
PS #1: I asked my source what his boss thought the fallout from this bill would be. He advised me that his boss, and some of his boss's conservative colleagues in the Senate, believe that this bill could gin up so much outrage on the right that it could lead to the GOP having an even worse year in 2008 than they did in 2006. As is, conservatives are disillusioned and unmotivated, and he thinks this bill will make things much worse if it passes the Senate.
PS #2: Another question I had for my source was whether he thought Harry Reid wanted this bill to pass. He replied that he thought Rush Limbaugh was right, and that Harry Reid would prefer to see this bill go away. As evidence for that, he pointed to Reid bringing Byron Dorgan's killer Amendment back three times. He also said that if Reid had really wanted the bill to pass, he would have kept it on the floor for another 2-3 days. At this point though, he said that Reid is probably content to let it come back because after the President's high profile lobbying, he can pin the blame for the bill on Republicans.
Recently I ran across a graph of voter turnout in the 19th century. It went from about 20 percent in the early years to about 80 percent toward 1850.
Which leads me to believe that apathy will prevail until the crisis is knocking at the front door.
Presumably we're not at the crisis stage yet.
Keep up the good fight people. Keep calling, faxing and e-mailing. We will not allow this country to be sold out to Mexico. If this bill passes, you will see another civil war within 10 years for sure but the elites could care less as they live in gated communities.
Semper Fi’
Jarhead
We can put aside past differences....we have to!
You've made a very powerful statement. Personally I've been a registered Republican for 30 years. And, yes, I am also mad.
McConnell 202/224-2541
Lott 202/224-6253
Kyl 202/224-4521
Brownback 202/224-6521
Burr 202/224-3154
Chambliss 202/224-3521
Cornyn 202/224-2934
Hutchison 202/224-5922
Isakson 202/224-3643
Warner 202/224-2023
Webb 202/224-4024
I need help here guys, I’ve not been up on the news these past few weeks, I actually thought that this bill was gone. What/why are all of these big picture Republicans supporting this bill? What have I missed? AND why is Bush so hell bent on it? I must admit, I have not read the fine print, but I don’t get it.
Gordon hasn’t changed his stripes much in the past few years. Money rules according to him. “He who has the gold makes the rules”
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a384c76f17bfe.htm
TOWN HALL MEETING WITH U.S. SENATOR GORDON SMITH, R-OR. 12/6/99
Hah. I've lived in those environments before in the third world.
It's not so bad if you have a a walled courtyard, lockable front gates, lockable front doors, a trained guard dog, and an armed security guy for the nighttime.
In one place we had a college student (ex Army) near the front gate with a little bunk and his bookshelves. It would make quite a racket to breach the gate, and he kept a loaded AK-47 next to his little cubby hole.
Later we rented a townhouse, also with the gates and courtyard walls but no guard.
The inevitable finally happened one 3AM, three kids hopped my next-door neighbor's wall (also my landlord) and on to his balcony to make way for the motorcycles they wanted. Sadly for them, there was a policeman renting a room in the house, the two teen sons were champion martial artists, and they had a professionally-trained (but very sweet) German Shepard guard dog. It was a sad evening for those kids.
After the noisy pummeling of all three (I could hear it from my bedroom), and the snarling of the dog, they were hogtied with bailing wire and left under supervision in the courtyard until the police rolled in at about 9AM.
Welcome to the third world. You get used to it. (Too bad, the neighborhood guys never let me join them on the frequent neighborhod patrols with a flashlight and a big club, because I was a foreigner and they didn't want me to get into trouble).
Anyway I do anticipate stepped-up neighborhood watches if this abomination is passed.
Gosh, I don't see why not. I have some relatives in Aberdeenshire, Dad loved to visit when his health was better.
...When the Biblical David encountered Goliath..(the 9 foot giant of a man!)....
..he ran toward him in battle!!....ran to meet him at the battle line!
David, a mere lad...
..but he was clever, and God was with him...
He slew this giant...
We must overcome our fear, and pray we can slay this giant amnesty bill!!!!!!!
Those men in the Senate....they're just men....mere men....
..those power hungry companies....composed of mere men...
...We have a mighty God...
..If HE is for us, who can be against us!
I don't share your optimism here...I'd LOVE to see that happen, but unfortunately, it's going to take some...bad stuff happening...before John Q. Public wakes up.
We have to continue on the offensive until this bill is dead. We cannot let up — you are right they are just men and about time for some to learn they work for us once they take office and have to answer to us the taxpayer.
I hope Lindsay Graham will wipe that inane guffaw from his snout when he sees his pathetic 2008 election results.
I just posted a thread where Sen Inhofe on 8 June thought the bill was dead as well. Makes no sense to me why this bill is seeing the light of day and why the President and Karl Rove his henchman are twisting arms. It makes our borders and our Country less secure.
I see great times ahead for the electric fence and barbed wire business.
Whatever they do down in Nogales and Yuma is what we'll be doing all across America.
There's always a buck to be made. While wages will be depressed in certain industries and real estate values destroyed in come communities, the growth in regional planning and security services will make many rich.
I was in Lima 15 mos ago during the CIRA 2006 debate and was making mental notes of how the overall physical/political structure worked. Our host pointed out the massive squatter shantytowns and the processes by which private property was first stolen and then legalized with eventual representation.
As always, the more intelligent make out like bandits; like a chess game, they foresee the various moves and plan accordingly. That's why I won't feel too badly if the dimwitted Democrats push this through. It will be they themselves who will feel the brunt of reality while I enjoy my own little slice of paradise at their expense.
Well, yeah. It'll take some creepy scratching at the windows before the bars go up.
I know! I’m the same way. I don’t know if Bush has something up his sleeve, they say that now, Reid is wanting the bill to die and he’s trying to stop it. There has got to be something that I missed for all of these big time Republicans to be so supportive of it. I guess that they are smarter than me.
What a hunky dory way to live.......boy oh boy oh boy.
My frustration is pretty high at watching MY country being sold out.
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