Posted on 05/22/2007 1:18:24 PM PDT by maquiladora
May 22, 2007 Experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal this yearshowing the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong. With the start of the hurricane season upon us, NOAA recommends those in hurricane-prone regions to begin their preparation plans.
"For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007 hurricane activity continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the El Niño/La Niña cycle.
Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when an unexpected El Niño rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water and away from land.
There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Niña will form, and if it does how strong it will be," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that La Niña could form in the next one to three months. If La Niña develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Niña becomes. Even if La Niña does not develop, the conditions associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-normal season."
Bell also noted that pre-season storms, such as Subtropical Storm Andrea in early May, are not an indicator of the hurricane season ahead. "With or without Andrea, NOAA's forecast is for an above normal season." "With expectations for an active season, it is critically important that people who live in East and Gulf coastal areas as well as the Caribbean be prepared," said Bill Proenza, NOAA National Hurricane Center director. "Now is the time to update your hurricane plan, not when the storm is bearing down on you."
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity occurring August through October. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated seasonal forecast in August just prior to the historical peak of the season.
The Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook is an official forecast product of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Instituted in 1998, this outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA National Hurricane Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division and the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. The NOAA National Hurricane Center has hurricane forecasting responsibilities for the Atlantic as well as the East Pacific basins. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA National Hurricane Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center are three of the NOAA National Weather Service's nine NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which provides the United States with first alerts of weather, climate, ocean and space weather events.
NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is celebrating 200 years of science and service to the nation. From the establishment of the Survey of the Coast in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson to the formation of the Weather Bureau and the Commission of Fish and Fisheries in the 1870s, much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA. NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
A hockey goalie has a Red Light and a Siren go off when he screws up. Why do these people get off the hook so easy?
“I think that these guys would be more accurate if they just threw a dart.’
Ever hear of the dartboard portfolio? I think Barrons runs it. And yes, throwing darts at stock listings outperforms professionally recommended portfolios regularly.
I predict drought in the east with mid summer wildfires followed by flooding when two slow moving tropical depression hammers the east coast one after another in mid sept to early oct.
The same goobers predicted the same last hurricane season - and it was one of the quietest on record... So I think you could flip a coin and be AT LEAST as accurate as the NOAA...
I think the problem is that NOAA has become advocates more than scientists.
As Rush would say, “Women, minorities and the poor affected worst.”
Yeah they might risk the boy who cried wolf problem.
Its a hard line for them to walk having to keep people aware.
I don’t know about you, but I’m not domed; I’m doomed!
Yes, I read it, and I think that “domed” will be right up there with “stuned”, don’tcha think?
The people involved in both NOAA's hurricane predictions and the well known Colorado State predictions are actually among the skeptics (sometimes strident) of increased Atlantic Hurricane activity being caused by Global Warming.
Notice there wasn't a single mention of global warming in the entire prediction.
Pretty futile battle having to point this out over and over and over again; would help if people actually studied scientific issues before opining on them.
"Normal" is based on a database a little over 100 years old. (and the people that make the predictions are well aware the database is more inaccurate the farther back in time one goes.)
In the 12 years from 1995 to 2006, total tropical activity was above average in 9 of those 12 years.
The reason why they keep predicting above average activity is because the activity keeps being above average (and usually WELL above average.)
And they're right most of the time.
Famous Outcry overheard 2 days after the levees broke in N.O.
You can bet that some puny little storms will be called hurricanes just to get the numbers up to those predicted.
I've noticed people have trouble keeping the source of various things straight.
The folks that were most frantically hyping the threat of the US being clobbered by major hurricanes in 2006, and generated a huge amount of press with ominous press releases, was the private company AccuWeather, not NOAA.
Want to buy a bridge?
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