Giuliani weighs benefits of Iowa poll

Politico ^ | 5/14/2007 | By: Thomas Beaumont

[Jim Robinson]

Republican Rudy Giuliani has been stuck for weeks on a key decision in his presidential campaign: whether to compete in the Iowa Republican Party's straw poll in Ames this summer.

The former New York City mayor's top Iowa advisers have encouraged him to take part in the year's marquee national GOP event as part of building what Giuliani has said he hopes will be a winning campaign for the leadoff Iowa caucuses in January.

But the final say belongs to Giuliani, who plans to decide in the coming weeks how the event could benefit or cost him.

If he says yes to the straw poll, it will raise the stakes for this closely watched first measure of Iowa support by ensuring the participation of all the better-known candidates in the race. Giuliani's participation also would underscore the significance of the caucuses in the new fast-track presidential nominating schedule.

A decision to take part in the straw poll would also put to its first test Giuliani's oft-stated assertion that he can withstand social conservatives' differences with him on some key social issues, such as his support for abortion rights.

"I think that a candidate creates his or her electorate in many ways, if they are a strong-enough candidate or a powerful-enough candidate," Giuliani said in a recent interview with The Des Moines Register.

If he says no, it will make the straw poll a less meaningful early test of campaign strength in Iowa.

Likewise, should Giuliani pass on the straw poll, it would make less clear Iowa's significance in the heavily front-loaded caucus and primary schedule.

A Giuliani no-show in Ames also could draw more attention to his differences with most Iowa caucusgoers on abortion -- differences that also set him apart from several of his Republican competitors.

[Jim Robinson]

"I can't think of any upside for playing it light, especially if he is still the front-runner at that point," said Charles Jones, a presidential campaign scholar at the Brookings Institution. "For the downside, not facing the toughest issues for Giuliani hurts him on his strong leadership profile."

[kinoxi]

"I think that a candidate creates his or her electorate in many ways, if they are a strong-enough candidate or a powerful-enough candidate," Giuliani said in a recent interview with The Des Moines Register.

Creates? I thought he was running as a representative of his electorate.

[Spiff]

But the final say belongs to Giuliani, who plans to decide in the coming weeks how the event could benefit or cost him.

If he doesn't do Iowa, then he's a chicken**** liberal. If he does, then he's still a liberal and he'll likely lose.

[SWAMPSNIPER]

“I thought he was running as a representative of his electorate”.

---

No, we are expected to change our expectations.

[TommyDale]

I would like to hear him explain why he wouldn’t visit with the farmer and his wife because they didn’t have a net worth of at least $1 million. That caused the Rudybots to perspire.

[Jake The Goose]

"I can't think of any upside for playing it light, especially if he is still the front-runner at that point," said Charles Jones, a presidential campaign scholar at the Brookings Institution. "For the downside, not facing the toughest issues for Giuliani hurts him on his strong leadership profile."

You win or you lose - but you have to play in all the games.

He should get in there and compete - no running - no hiding.

[kinoxi]

I didn’t get the memo. I’ll have to do two extra hours of reeducation ‘treatment’ for that I guess...

[Reagan Man]

Most Iowa Republican caucusgoers oppose abortion rights. In two polls taken for The Register in the weeks leading up to the 2000 caucuses, about 60 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers said abortion should be illegal, with about 30 percent saying it should be legal. The proportions mirror recent national surveys.

60%? Sounds a little on the low end.

[katieanna]

If we do not see measurable victories in Iraq pronto, a republican won’t be able to buy a vote in 2008. If we think 2006 hurt, we won’t even want to watch the election night returns in Now. 08. It doesnt’ matter who the nominee is.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Your boy’s screwed. My advice to you is support a different candidate.

[Jake The Goose]

Nah - I’ll stay with my man until something better comes along.

I don’t see it yet - but it’s possible.

I’m no zealot - I can be swayed - but right now I like the man.

[bcsco]

If Giuliani were as strong as polling showed him to be only a month or more ago, there'd be no question of him competing in Iowa. But with his showing in the first Republican debate, and now with Fred Thompson winning the straw polls in both Wisconsin (neighbor of Iowa to boot) and Vermont, Giuliani has to be second-guessing. This report seems another indication that he is.

Should Giuliani decide not to compete, Iowa could be Giuliani's worst decision yet. For those who are impatient for Fred Thompson to announce, his decision to wait could be his smartest decision yet.

[BusterBear]

If he chickens out when faced with Iowa farmers, how will he stand up to Ahmedinejad? The decision to participate in Iowa should have been a no-brainer for a Presidential candidate who is presenting himself as a “leader” in a democratic country - but there is too much political calculation here and too little principle.

[Paperdoll]

Mayor Giuliani’s hesitation to enter the straw poll signals his possible uncertainty of his acceptance in Iowa. Why else would he not participate?

[samtheman]

I agree with you. Not a zealot, but so far on his side.

I do think he should compete everywhere, however. Regardless of risks.

[Jake The Goose]

Yes indeed - you win or you lose - you never hide.

Fight to win every time - it you lose - congratulate the winner.

If you win - congratulate the losers and take ownership of the win.

[samtheman]

well said

[kinoxi]

Your candidate cannot win, he can only damage the eventual party nominee.

[Jake The Goose]

I can understand your comment that Rudy (might) not win.

Exactly how does he damage the ultimate GOP nominee - you lost me there?

[kinoxi]

Creating an insurmountable schism (abortion, gun control, cross dressing, etc) that the general electorate cannot reconcile. The guy is damaged goods, it’s unfortunate that you cant see it.