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Poll Vaulting: Romney Takes the Lead in Michigan; Giuliani and McCain Fall Off Dramatically
2008 Central ^

Posted on 05/12/2007 2:39:39 PM PDT by CheyennePress

Continuing a week of not-so-good news for Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney in the latest ARG poll is ahead by a statistically insignificant two points over John McCain.

One can see how precipitous a fall this is for Giuliani. He lost over 11 points from the last poll, in February. But that’s childs play compared to John McCain, who fell from 35% in the February poll to only 22% now. The only two to go up in polling were Romney and Fred Thompson. Thompson entered the poll with a support figure of 8%. Romney, on the other - but he’s in a fight with Romney now and probably will be soon in the early primary states.

This is the kind of news that the Romney campaign needed with Fred Thompson gearing up to enhand, jumped up all the way from 8% to 24%.

Now clearly, this is evidence of Romney gaining ground over time. The lengthy time between the polls - 3 months - makes generalizations a little harder than in most cases. But it is clear that Romney’s extremely hard work in the state is paying off. Giuliani should be less surpised - the entrance of Thompson everywhere has had a similar effect on his poll numbers.

McCain should be more worried. This is Mitt Romney gaining ground at his expense, nothing else. It’s hard to pin down what has hurt McCain - it’s been a long three months ter the race.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: election2008; elections; mitt; romney
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American Research Group: http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/mirep8-703.shtml
1 posted on 05/12/2007 2:39:45 PM PDT by CheyennePress
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To: CheyennePress
It’s hard to pin down what has hurt McCain . . .

How about blatant disrespect for the first amendment (McCain-Feingold CFR)?

2 posted on 05/12/2007 2:45:18 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Are there any men left in Washington? Or are there only cowards? Ahmad Shah Massoud)
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To: CheyennePress

I’m not a Romney supporter but I think I could hold my nose and vote for him if it came down to that. Now if only Rudy and McCain would drop out so some of the conservatives could move up there would be a real race.


3 posted on 05/12/2007 2:46:14 PM PDT by cripplecreek (Greed is NOT a conservative ideal.)
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To: AmericanMade1776; bcbuster; bethtopaz; Bluestateredman; Capt. Cox; cardinal4; carton253; cgk; ...

Mitt Ping!
4 posted on 05/12/2007 2:46:49 PM PDT by CheyennePress
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To: cripplecreek

Move up like Duncan Hunter


5 posted on 05/12/2007 2:49:17 PM PDT by tiger-one (The night has a thousand eyes)
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To: tiger-one

That would make a real presidential race especially in the rust belt.


6 posted on 05/12/2007 2:51:17 PM PDT by cripplecreek (Greed is NOT a conservative ideal.)
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To: CheyennePress

Anything that knocks out Rudy and McCain early is a good thing.


7 posted on 05/12/2007 2:54:10 PM PDT by oneofmany (The Democrat party IS the 5th column)
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To: CheyennePress

His father was a good CEO at Rambler/AMC and a good Governor and Michiganders remember.


8 posted on 05/12/2007 3:08:03 PM PDT by Mikey_1962 (If you build it, they won't come...)
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To: CheyennePress
The poll shows 15% undecided and 7% for Newt Gingrich. I no longer believe that Newt Gingrich is going to run, so the total of undecideds plus Gingrich supporters puts that combination in second place. I'm glad to see Giuliani and McCain sinking in the polls. I'd like to see Duncan Hunter and maybe Jim Gilmore rising in the polls.

Undoubtedly, Mitt Romney has advantages in Michigan because his family was there and was prominent in politics for so long. If the Jeb Bush connection gives him Florida and his family connection gives him Michigan, he'll undoubtedly be in the race on February 6, the day after the super primary. At this point in the game, each of the Republicans has to be hoping to remain competitive after the super primary. Anyone who is still competitive at that time has a chance to work out a win in the states that hold primaries after that date.

Bill

9 posted on 05/12/2007 3:11:05 PM PDT by WFTR (Liberty isn't for cowards)
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To: cripplecreek
You bet. As McCain, and Rudy slide, Hunter will move up. Fred T. is waiting too long to announce, and if he does, who knows what he will bring. Then Mitt will be a bigger target than he is now, and he will slide off the stage.
10 posted on 05/12/2007 3:27:37 PM PDT by tiger-one (The night has a thousand eyes)
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To: Vigilanteman

I would really like to see McClame drop out and see how the polls line up between Mitt, Rudy, and Fred T.


11 posted on 05/12/2007 3:51:00 PM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
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To: tiger-one
I think a little reality needs to set in here. Duncan Hunter isn't going to "move" anywhere. He's at his 2-3% and that will be it.

The only one who has a chance to beat Rudy or Romney is Fred Thompson, and the four-way pie between R, R, McCain and Thompson is the race. I wish MCrazy would get out, because his support, whever it's coming from, hasn't moved at all in months.

12 posted on 05/12/2007 3:53:32 PM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
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To: Vigilanteman

Besides being a Manchurian nut job?


13 posted on 05/12/2007 4:02:43 PM PDT by Joe Boucher
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To: CheyennePress

Isn’t it Great Go Mitt!:)


14 posted on 05/12/2007 4:05:03 PM PDT by restornu (As I have Love you Love One To Another By This Shall Men know Ye Are My Disciples!)
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To: LS

The reality is Fred is not running, it may change but it will too late.


15 posted on 05/12/2007 4:05:18 PM PDT by tiger-one (The night has a thousand eyes)
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To: tiger-one

Well, for all intents and purposes, neither is Hunter. He doesn’t have money, national organization, or any of the necessities to actually mount a campaign.


16 posted on 05/12/2007 4:17:55 PM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; Kuksool; Unmarked Package; ElkGroveDan; goldstategop; LdSentinal; ...

Romney continues to benefit from his debate performance. Also, older voters in Michigan remember his father, who was a pretty good governor during the 1960’s.


17 posted on 05/12/2007 4:30:00 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (If the GOP were to stop worshiping Free Trade as if it were a religion, they'd win every election)
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To: LS

Romney’s the man!


18 posted on 05/12/2007 5:39:51 PM PDT by claudiustg (I curse you, Rudy of the Giuliani!)
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To: claudiustg

19 posted on 05/12/2007 5:50:58 PM PDT by LFOD777 (In 2006, Washington spent $2.7 Trillion and ran a $248 billion budget deficit.)
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To: Mikey_1962

Mitt Romney commercials are already showing up periodically here in Cali, and they’re actually very good.

Romney comes across better in action, than in the still photos. Quite a lot better, actually.

His campaign needs to keep up the early commercials. They’re good, and he’s starting to look like a good prospect.

I like him, so far.


20 posted on 05/12/2007 5:54:50 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (Mr. President: PARDON NACHO AND JOSE!)
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