Posted on 05/08/2007 6:45:04 PM PDT by canuck_conservative
He was just a third-place leader in the Quebec National Assembly. His party was tumbling into the teens in public approval, its independence raison d'etre more popular than the crumbling separatists leading the campaign.
Given those grim circumstances, Andre Boisclair, leader of the Parti Quebecois, could have slipped from national politics with all the rippling impact of an ocean-plunked pebble.
Yet it was the federal Conservatives whose faces were in full beam yesterday, viewing Mr. Boisclair's departure as a potential pick-me-up for their sagging poll fortunes and future election prospects.
"It's an OK day," said a grinning senior government official, trying to suppress his buoyant mood with thoughts of an imminent appointment in a dentist's chair.
It's a lot more than that. The political chain reaction from Mr. Boisclair's resignation is one of those seismic events occurring far below the surface with potentially tidal consequences for the future.
And if it generates a wave, it will be big and Tory blue.
The reason for so much Conservative glee was reflected in the smiling mug of Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe.
With Mr. Boisclair's goodbye, it's a near certainty the Bloc leader will soon say hello from Ottawa. Mr. Duceppe, it would seem, will be coronated the next leader of the PQ.
Why a federal leader would leave the third party of Parliament, now hovering around 28% in provincial polls, to lead Quebec City's bronze podium party, now languishing at 20% in the polls, is one of those decisions that makes sense only in Quebec.
For starters, Mr. Duceppe surely knows his party has peaked. The Bloc's seat count has shifted into numerical reverse, slipping from 54 BQ ridings in 2004 to 45 in 2006.
There's a certain boredom that sets in after an MP like Mr. Duceppe unleashes 17 years of pretend indignation over the coddled province's alleged federal mistreatment.
And Mr. Duceppe has the ironic financial freedom to profit from a shift in capitals, qualifying for what the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation calculates will be an immediate $115,000 pension from the country he aims to divorce.
But the real reason is that the road to the promised land of an independent Quebec runs through provincial politics. Only a Quebec premier can call a referendum and lead the fight to glory. The guy sitting in Ottawa is just the border guard.
Whatever the reason, Mr. Duceppe's move will be good news for the battered provincial wing of the Quebec separatism dodo bird.
He's come a long way since sporting the widely ridiculed cheese factory hairnet of the 2000 campaign. Mr. Duceppe has matured into a solid campaigner and steady performer in the House of Commons with a tight leash on a caucus and no heir apparent challenges to his leadership.
If anybody can take down the quivering minority government of Liberal Jean Charest and restore public confidence in a separatist alternative, it's a reinvigorated PQ under experienced command.
But the move is even better news for Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
So anxious was Mr. Harper to encourage Mr. Duceppe's departure from federal politics, there was a bizarre moment on budget day when the Prime Minister made a rare, if not unprecedented, crossing of the Commons aisle to assure the Bloc leader he had no intention of single-handedly yanking the plug on this Parliament.
The not-so-subtle translation of that exchange was of a Prime Minister giving Mr. Duceppe permission to do a Brutus insertion into Mr. Boisclair's back, the better to create a vacancy he could fill without the worry of leaving his party leaderless in a snap federal election scenario.
Of course, Mr. Duceppe didn't want to speak ill of the dead yesterday, pretending to pay homage to the fallen Mr. Boisclair. But his jovial expression was telegraphing a candidacy that only needs pamphlets and signs to become official.
Even Mr. Harper picked up on the mood in the Commons. "The leader of the Bloc seems a little more energetic today," he noted. Mr. Duceppe was caught on camera with a poorly suppressed smirk on his face.
About the only name being floated as a Duceppe replacement is finance critic Pierre Paquette, described by those who know the economist as a less-charismatic version of the economist Prime Minister.
With the party in inexperienced hands and separatism in hibernation, the natural beneficiary of tumbling Blocs would be the Conservatives.
Of the Bloc's 45 seats in 2006, the Conservatives were runner-up with 36. With Mr. Harper's Quebec-appeasement policies the Conservatives easily could find a dozen or more seats in the Bloc Qubcois rubble.
A made-in-Quebec majority government for Stephen Harper is not entirely out of the question.
OK, OK, we're getting ahead of ourselves. Even so, Canadians may look back on yesterday as a ripple that grew into the tsunami that rearranged the federal landscape.
- Edward Heath
Not sure if you heard it yet, but ....
I don’t entirely understand what went on in the recent elections. There was a huge gap down in the Canadian bond right after the election, from which it still hasn’t recovered. Could you explain why that might have happened.
It can be seen on Jack Chan’s second chart down, here:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID530404&cmd=show[s58115156]&disp=O
This one’s about the provincial election in Quebec, about 2 weeks ago.
The PQ (”Parti Quebecois”), a nationalist provincial party, finished third, its worst showing since 1970, under their new leader Boisclair; so the knives were out for him, and the fact he’s openly gay probably didn’t help.
The BQ (”Bloc Quebecois”) is the federal counterpart to the PQ; its leader (Duceppe) wants to take Boisclair’s job, leaving the the “Ottawa front” leaderless.
IOW, one less serious opponent for Stephen Harper.
BTW, both PQ and BQ are dedicated to their version of Quebec independence, i.e., the break-up of Canada with Canadian taxpayers on the hook for as much as possible.
-
Please send me a FReepmail to get on or off this Canada ping list.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.