Posted on 05/03/2007 7:42:33 AM PDT by AFPhys
Quinnipiac has a new poll out on the 2008 Presidential Race. Note that the survey began Wednesday, April 25, the day before the Democrats held their first debate in Orangeburg, SC, and finished on Tuesday, May 1. On the Democratic side, both Clinton and Obama have taken a bit of a slide but still lead the rest of the pack, while Edwards got a solid bump:
Democrats
Clinton 32 (-6 points versus last month's poll)
Obama 18 (-5)
Gore 14 (+3)
Edwards 12 (+6)
Richardson 3 (+1)
Biden 2 (+1)
Undecided 15 (+13)
For the Republicans, Giuliani took a pretty significant tumble which looks to have been almost entirely due to Fred Thompson's appearance, because the rest of the field remained pretty close to static:
Republicans
Giuliani 27 (-13 points versus last month's poll)
McCain 19 (+1)
F. Thompson 14 (first time polled)
Gingrich 8 (-2)
Romney 8 (+1)
Undecided 16 (+1)
Head-to-Head Match Ups
Giuliani 49 - Clinton 40
Giuliani 44 - Obama 41
Giuliani 48 - Gore 41
McCain 46 - Clinton 41
McCain 42 - Obama 42
McCain 47 - Gore 41
F. Thompson 39 - Clinton 46
F. Thompson 34 - Obama 47
F. Thompson 37 - Gore 47
Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings
Giuliani 53/24 (+29)
Obama 46/18 (+28)
McCain 49/26 (+23)
Edwards 46/25 (+21)
F. Thompson 26/9 (+17)
Gore 49/41 (+8)
Romney 17/16 (+1)
Clinton 44/46 (-2)
Other numbers from the poll worth a mention: Democrats lead the generic ballot question by 9 points (43/34); 57% responded that Iraq is the "most important issue for the next President to deal with;" President Bush's job approval is at 35%; Congress' job approval is slightly higher at 39%; and the Supreme Court's job approval is at 58%.
Romney sneaks up a bit, but not importantly.
The Rudy supporters refuse to acknowledge it, but when you consider the unknown numbers, Fred’s numbers in the general matchups are WAY better than Rudy’s. Even if the unknowns go 2-1 against him, he still wins across the board.
Hitlery isn’t doing too well.
Meanwhile, it will be very intresting to see what factor an official announcement by Fred makes. Money has it he is announcing tomorrow at the Lincoln dinner then on Letterman (Leno?) that night. We'll see.
He's my man if he's in. If not, I'm for whoever beats Hillary.
Yeah, he's a bit of a sneaker, kind of like Gollum. And, like Gollum/Smeagol, he spends a lot of time arguing with himself about his beliefs (or lack thereof), his past, and his favorite color.
FWIW, He said the other night on Hannity that he wouldn't announce until June.
Utterly amazing there are so many Gorons out there, isn't it?
Well, I think the head-to-heads are a bit troubling for Thompson, but somehow I believe that they’re OK given the time until the elections. This is really way too early to do much more than preliminary estimating of chances.
LOL... Spitboy keeps harpin' that she 'won' the debate. The DBM is so in the bag for her that they can't help but lay it on thicker and thicker.
Fred can’t keep pushing this back. There are realities of campaiging in the 21st century, and delaying only reinforces the charge (by many Republicans) that Fred really doesn’t have the “fire in the belly” to run. I think that’s inaccurate, but the longer he waits, the truer it becomes.
What’s noteworthy about the democrats is that Gore (who is not running - har, har) is up to 14% - only a small margin behind the “aknowledged wonderboy by the media” Obama!
For a Quinnipiac poll, the Hillary camp cannot be happy. Great numbers for Fred...
What breaks me up is this: 35% of the public has ever heard of Fred Thompson; 9 % dislike him. But he polls THIRTY-NINE percent against Hillary.
IOW, a lot of Merkins are answering, “I don’t know who he is, but if he’s running against Hillary, I’ll vote for him.”
Yes, that is odd. Usually, someone will be undecided at best.
You think that being within 10 points when 65% have no opinion of you is troubling?
Who’s doing the cherry-picking? We know Giuliani is winning in general, but your chart deceptively suggests he’s making a clean sweep. The truth is Giuliani is losing in Iowa, he’s losing in New Hampshire, and he’s losing in South Carolina.
He’s winning where no-one has heard the other candidates. He’s losing where the battle has been joined.
These are important numbers - I want to see Fred Thompson match these numbers (now or eventually).
Then we know we have an option to Rudy's existing strength.
Conservative GOP strength is meaningless - if we cannot win the general election.
>> Fred can’t keep pushing this back. There are realities of campaiging in the 21st century, and delaying only reinforces the charge (by many Republicans) that Fred really doesn’t have the “fire in the belly” to run. I think that’s inaccurate, but the longer he waits, the truer it becomes. <<
...until people see that he has fire in the belly. I think most people paying attention to such things (about 5% of the general public, tops) completely expect that he’s keeping his powder dry.
Well,, let take a look at those states - Electoral Votes:
New Hampshire = 4 Votes Iowa = 7 Votes S.C. = 8 Votes
Now where is has a clear and solid lead:
CA. = 55 Votes PA. = 21 Votes Ohio = 20 Votes
And your point is?
I agree with you, dangus.
As I wrote during the past week or so, I believe, “even if FredT announces in JANUARY, he will easily obtain the Republican nomination. In fact, it may well be that the later he announces, the better.”
I agree with you 100%
Fred would be a Tremendous candidate - but he’s gotta get in the game.
Reason? - there has to be one - no one delays for no reason.
Keep in mind - it’s not just the need to raise money - you HAVE to have an organization - State by State.
He’s not running for city council.
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