Posted on 04/24/2007 4:24:56 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
Taiwan says it would win war with China
By Annie Huang, Associated Press Writer | April 24, 2007
TAIPEI, Taiwan --A computer simulation projected that China could land forces on rival Taiwan, but they would be repulsed after two weeks of fierce fighting and harsh losses to both sides, Taiwan's military said Tuesday.
The complex simulation involved a scenario of China invading the island, 100 miles off its coast, in 2012.
Taiwan and China split amid civil war in 1949, but Beijing considers Taiwan Chinese territory. The computer scenario was based on China's repeated threats to attack if Taiwan ever tries to formalize its de facto independence.
The military released its findings from the simulation to reporters on Tuesday.
In the simulation, Chinese ships ferry forces to the island, backed by heavy missile barrages and pinpoint airstrikes on Taiwanese military bases and other strategic facilities.
The "invaders" establish beachheads along Taiwan's west coast, though their arrival is delayed for several days by Taiwanese missile strikes on mainland military bases, and by Taiwanese navy counterattacks.
(Excerpt) Read more at boston.com ...
It's done all the time - US does it all the time. US Naval War College ran a massive wargame every year during the 80s simulating global war with the Soviets.
Upcoming ships like the DDG-100 and the CG(X) are having crucial design decisions tested by playing them in wargames against possible opponents.
And before the computer era wargaming was common - Germans did tons of it, US and Japan constantly played wargames in the 20s and 30s fighting each other.
Do it well and it's very educational - do it incorrectly (like the Japanese before Midway) and you can screw yourself.
The only problem is, China could do it one year, and then after a year, come back and do it again.
I’d actually sort of welcome a Chinese attack on Taiwan for that very reason - failure would likely bring down the whole ChiCom regime.
Umm...no. They'd lose most of their navy, all of their amphib shipping, and most of their modern aircraft in one attempt.
It's far more realistic than the clueless pants-wetting panic and frantic overhype of the PRC military with no recognition of its weaknesses and the EXTREME difficulty of conducting opposed seaborne invasions, you get from the Bill Gertz's of the world and quite a few self-proclaimed experts on here.
>>They couldn’t afford the humiliation of defeat. They’d be in it to win no matter what the cost.<<
I can see it now...
“Yes, Mr. President, but our simulations assured us the Chinese would quit within two weeks.”
Computer simulations notwithstanding, this sounds more like a not-so-subtle message to Beijing that if they try invading, it is going to cost them dearly.
If tensions were to dramatically increase, it would not surprise me if Taipei announced that they too, have joined the nuclear weapons club, and are not afraid to use them if necessary.
In fact, that might be the only message that the ChiComs would understand. They might doubt U.S. resolve and miscalculate, but if their ‘renegade’ province (as they view Taiwan) tells them that they risk being nuked if they attack, they know to take it seriously.
I have been to Egypt and seen what a few thousand people can do when they put their mind to it. I doubt we could even imagine what the Chinese could do with several Billion people.
I’m of the opinion that their Navy could be significantly rebuilt in a year. Maybe not to the level that it was before, but enough to overwhelm on the second try.
You don't know anything about modern naval shipbuilding, then.
Ive been to Taiwan a couple of times. I can tell you that they have known for 60 years that war will come with the mainland someday. Unless China nukes the island out of the Ocean they will find subduing the place to be very bloody and costly. The problems we had with tunnels in Viet Nam will pale to what the Chinese will meet. Taiwan has all kinds of things ready to put in play when the PRC launches. Taiwan would be China’s Viet Nam if they try to take it over.
Allow me to point out to you that a “modern” navy was not required at Dunkirk. Likewise, the PT boats of WWII and the marine river craft of Vietnam were not very “modern”. Thousands of little craft carrying platoons across 110 miles is certainly very doable and actually very difficult to defend against if you do not control the air.
Combine that with a few larger naval craft, helicopters for both attack, rescue and transport and airplanes for paratroopers and amphibious assault, and you can build a LOW tech, high number reasonable chance of success in a short period of time. Remember, Victor/Liberty ships in WWII were being completed in 60 days.
It also about if Taiwan is fully recognized as independent, Tibet and East Turkmenistan (Xijiang/Uighurstan), along with Inner Mongolia could either become independent, or in the case of Inner Mongolia join with Mongolia. It would also make the Communist government appear weak, and could incite uprisings and stronger protests than has been seen in Communist China.
And success could stifle dissent at home against that regime, and solidify the "ChiCom" government's control over the country.
Yup, they would loose face.
It's like us with Iraq!
Exactly.
A forgotten by product of the Southeast Asian War.
What battle experience does the PLA have, aside from running over students in Tinnamen Square ?
Zero.
And I don't believe the Chinese have won a naval battle of any kind for something like 500+ years.
A mainland D-Day invasion of China would have several critical elements:
1) Major attacks on the United States ports of Bremerton, Washington and San Diego, to impair the US Pacific Fleet, yet not obviously attacks by China. Possibly a third attack on the east coast.
2) A very large fifth column already in place and prepared to act in Taiwan.
3) A very large flotilla of military and commercial ships able to cross the Taiwan Strait.
4) A massive missile barrage concentrating on airfields and military bases.
5) Occupation of Taiwan’s major cities, which would make the mainland forces almost impossible to dislodge by the US.
The casualty assumption for mainland forces could be as high as 90%, assuming that survival of 10% of their forces would be enough to “win” a beachhead. (A similar assumption was made for the Normandy D-Day).
Every Chinese embassy around the world would go into full diplomatic efforts to proclaim that “China is now reunified, and any attack against any part of it is aggressive war by the United States.”
N.B.: While this would generally be the mainland plan of operations, I do not assert that it would work.
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