Welcome to Mediterranean Scotland in 5 years time?

NEWS.scotsman.com ^ | Thu 5 Apr 2007 | Eben Harrel

[jsh3180]

WHILE the international community readies itself for gradual global warming over the next century, a growing number of scientists are beginning to worry that climate change might come much sooner - and be much more catastrophic - than previously thought.

They point out that, in the past, climate change has not been gradual. Europe's climate has switched from arctic to tropical in three to five years and, they warn, it can happen again.

Fred Pearce, of the New Scientist, has spent the past two years speaking to climate experts who are studying the possibility of "type 2" climate change - abrupt, catastrophic and irreversible. He will present his findings as part of the Edinburgh International Science Festival today.

The scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which will present a long-awaited report into the slow but serious effects of global warming tomorrow, have focused on "type 1" predictions based on already observable warming patterns.

But many climate experts say this method of modelling ignores the possibility of "tipping points" at which the climate suddenly spirals out of control.

"The IPCC is a very conservative body. It assumes that global warming will follow an already observable pattern - that it will be a straight line on a graph," Mr Pearce said. "But there are many scientists who are increasingly worried about a sudden and catastrophic acceleration that could happen at any time."

Sudden "type 2" climate change will happen through a series of "positive feedback" cycles, in which each stage of warming sets off another, like cascading dominoes.

Mr Pearce spells out one scenario: the melting of the Arctic Ocean ice increases polar warming, triggering sea-temperature rises that dry out the Amazonian rainforest, leading to forest fires, releasing more carbon, stimulating further warming, reducing snow-cover on permafrost in Siberia, allowing it to melt and release methane, which in turn causes enough warming to release frozen methane hydrates from below the oceans.

Such extreme warming then leads to the melting of at least one of the world's three major icecaps. Hundreds of coastal cities are swallowed by rising sea levels.

Millions of climate refugees are displaced by rising sea levels, failing crops, water shortages and extreme weather.

A team of scientists recently polled colleagues about "type 2" climate change and are preparing to publish the data.

Tim Lenton, an Earth System Scientist at University of East Anglia, said the results were scary: "We found that almost every scientist listed several non-linear changes as real possibilities.

"The fact that scientific experts are even considering this suggests the severity of the issue. We all think we can adapt to smooth change, but step-change is much different."

• Fred Pearce will discuss his book, The Last Generation: How Nature Will Take Her Revenge for Climate Change at Reid Concert Hall today at 6pm. Orange groves in the Highlands, bananas by the west coast lochs and warm winter cruises. The shape of things to come?

THE year is 2040, and the English are pouring across Hadrian's Wall.

Rising tides in the North Sea have overwhelmed the Thames Barrier and, with the city wiped out, rich Londoners are heading for the hills. Especially the Scottish hills, where the climate is remarkably like that of the Dordogne of a few decades ago.

It wasn't supposed to be like this. Climate change, they said at the start of the 21st century, would be nasty but gradual and fairly predictable. It has turned out to be much more sudden and brutal.

Climate scientists in 2040 stand discredited. Not because they were too alarmist, but because they failed to warn the world of what was to come.

Europe is in a bad way. The south of the continent - Spain, Italy and Greece - is the new Sahara desert. The French vineyards are dead. The first tropical hurricane hit Devon in 2037, obliterating Plymouth.

But climate chaos is global. Refugees fleeing floods and storms, droughts and searing heat have become an unstoppable force. There is guerrilla warfare on the US-Canadian border. The Chinese invaded Siberia after the South China Sea flooded the homes of 70 million people in the world's largest megacity, Shanghai.

Triggered by the catastrophic collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, sea-level rise has proved to be ten times faster than expected. The tides have engulfed Lagos and Bangkok, Sydney and New Orleans.

And there was the unfortunate case of the Sizewell nuclear power station on the English east coast. Dodgy dykes let the sea into the reactor. The rest of Suffolk may have disappeared beneath the waves before the radiation clears.

Wildlife has been on the move, too. There are great white sharks off Blackpool and malarial mosquitoes in the Channel Islands. Polar bears have become extinct as the Arctic ice ran out, but brown bears are marauding US suburbs in search of food.

Killer bees have invaded home counties hives and a family of baby crocodiles released into the Thames took to the warmer waters and started preying on otters.

As crops dry in the fields or are washed away by salty tides, the global economy has been in deepening recession since 2035. The revered economist Nicholas Stern, who forecast just this back in 2006, quietly says "I told you so" from his Highland retreat.

Many blame all this on India. The world's largest economy refused to join an emergency effort, launched by the US in 2020, to ban all burning of coal and oil. But in truth the die was cast before then. The 2020 vision just came too late. Nature is taking her revenge.

Half a century ago, the oceans and soils and rainforests of the world soaked up half of the world's man-made emissions of carbon dioxide. Everyone assumed they would continue this vital task. But in 2040 they are releasing more than they absorb. The Amazon rainforest is engulfed in flames and driving a new surge in global warming. Climate change is accelerating, and is literally unstoppable - whatever humans do.

Ah, but Scotland, independent and basking in its new warm climate, is on to a winner. Winter cruises of the islands are attracting the rich and famous. The country is self-sufficient in vines and wheat and oranges. Sunflowers spread across the Borders. They are even thinking of growing bananas beside the secluded lochs of the west coast.

Downsides? Well, the ski slopes went some times ago, along with a few bird species that found it too hot in the Highlands. But if the new Border guards can keep out the English - and the rest of the world - then Scotland looks increasingly like the last Eden.

[Joe 6-pack]

"Climate refugees"? Has anyone heard this term used before? We may have a new global warming term.

Here in the south, we call them "Snowbirds."

[sionnsar]

Dodgy dykes let the sea into the reactor.

Best keep them dykes away from the reactor. Especially the bull dykes.

[wbill]

The IPCC is a very conservative body

Compared to what? Greenpeace? PETA? Those idiots that chain themselves to trees and worship Mother Gaia??

No bias here. Say Three "Hail AlGore"s and move along.

[napscoordinator]

Well let’s see. The last time this happened were their cars, people and everything else that caused this? I believe the answer would be no. So if it happens again perhaps it is a natural occurance and supposed to happen. What is so difficult to understand about this?

[napscoordinator]

By the way, I am not doing anything for the environment, I am just going to buy carbon credits...that is the in thing for the “real” people. UGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[doodad]

And halfbacks.

[BobS]

"But many climate experts say this method of modelling ignores the possibility of "tipping points" at which the climate suddenly spirals out of control."

That's when women take their clothes off.

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

I’ve heard the Scotsman is a liberal rag and pimp for every leftist cause there is.

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

Europe's climate has switched from arctic to tropical in three to five years and, they warn, it can happen again.

Long before the Industrial Era, apparently, so why are they panicking?

[Zon]

The following graphs show that Earth is in a brief period of global warming called an interglacial. The longer time spans, the deep troughs are glacial periods. The line that runs across the graphs is the temperature in 1950 and listed as "0" on the left axis.

As can be seen in Figure 1-5, Earth appears ready to move toward another ice age in the cycle.

I'm more concerned with sustaining global warming to offset global cooling and the next ice age. 

Ice Ages & Astronomical Causes
Brief Introduction to the History of Climate
by Richard A. Muller

Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle

This first graph looks bad, doesn't it -- steeper upward temperature trend. Horizontal red line is temperature at 1950.

Figure 1-1 Global warming

The second graph shows today's temperature isn't out of the norm. Horizontal blue line is temperature at 1950.

Figure 1-2 Climate of the last 2400 years

The next graph shows a downtrend in temperatures from 8,000 years ago to today. The down trend is steeper in the recent 2,000 years. From left to right the upper spikes have lower highs while the lower spikes have lower lows. (The same effect can be seen in Figure 1-2, above.) 

Figure 1-3 Climate of the last 12,000 years

This graph shows that agriculture and  stationary societies emerged 8,000 years ago during a time frame when global temperature was much higher than normal, or average.

Figure 1-4 Climate of the last 100,000 years

The next graph shows that the recent 8,000 years was one of five brief hot spikes when glaciers were at minimums. With much longer troughs when glacials (ice ages) were the norm most of the time.

Figure 1-5 Climate for the last 420 kyr, from Vostok ice

The graph below is reversed. That is, the left side is present day and the right side is 3 million years ago. It shows a 3 million year down trend toward widening extremes in the temperature cycle.

Figure 1-6 Climate for the last 3 million years

The final graph shows CO2 lagging temperature change -- not leading it.

Figure 1-7 CO2 and temperature for the last 450 kyr

When man can cause meaningful global warming yesterday would be a good time to begin thwarting the next ice age.

The Great Global Warming Swindle 

[Zon]

As glaciers melt off Greenland it raises upward from the weight reduction. I wonder how other larger land masses covered in ice respond to their ice melting off.

[eddie willers]

There is guerrilla warfare on the US-Canadian border.

Yeah....like they can stop us. :o)

[raybbr]

Long before the Industrial Era, apparently, so why are they panicking?

Yep. When I ask people who panic about GW why the glaciers have been melting for the last 11 thousand years what that has to do with CO2 emissions I get this blank stare.

[Lazamataz]

WHILE the international community readies itself for gradual global warming over the next century, a growing number of scientists are beginning to worry that climate change might come much sooner - and be much more catastrophic - than previously thought.

Thank God! Can we be 100% sure that this CATASTROPHE will kill absolutely everyone?

Because if there is the slightest doubt, I'm leaving my car running overnight.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

 

[SteamShovel]

But there are many scientists who are increasingly worried about a sudden and catastrophic acceleration that could happen at any time.

It is embarassing to be living in times when so many people are so gullable that science has become chicken little.