Thompson and Gore [Rich Galen]

CNSNews.com ^ | 3/28/07 | Rich Galen

[B Knotts]

FULL DISCLOSURE ALERT: The Lad is Deputy Campaign Manager for John McCain. I, therefore, have a rooting interest in the McCain campaign staying in business for as long as possible. Use that as a filter through which you read the following, a brief chronology:

* On March 11, former Senator and current actor Fred Thompson told Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday, upon being asked if he were "considering running for President in 2008: "I'm giving some thought to it. Going to leave the door open."

* This past Friday night the Mullings Director of Standards & Practices and I were having dinner at our favorite restaurant, Landini's in Old Town when it came to our attention that former Senator Fred Thompson was on premises and was sitting with Republican /'fcber-media-maven Alex Castellanos.

* What's the big deal? How about this: CBS News characterized Castellanos as "a strategist for Mitt Romney."

* Whoa! Check, please!

* Then Monday afternoon I got a call from mega-reporter Susan Page of USA Today asking me what I thought of the just-released USA Today/Gallup poll which showed Thompson's "leaving the door open" had generated a level of support which had him at 12%.

* I'm not that terrific at arithmetic, but I do know that polls tend to add up to 100% so if Thompson had gone from zero to 12 percent it had to come from somewhere.

* Giuliani, it turns out. According to the table on the Gallup web page, three weeks ago the top Republicans were:

Giuliani - 44 McCain - 20 Gingrich - 9 Romney - 8 Tommy Thompson - 2 Brownback - 1

* Fred Thompson was not even listed.

* The new lineup is:

Giuliani - 31 (-13) McCain - 22 (+2) Fred Thompson - 12 (+12) Gingrich - 8 (-1) Romney - 3 (-5) Brownback - 3 (+2) Tommy Thompson - 2 ( - )

* Chuck "I Called You All Here to Tell You I Have Nothing to Tell You" Hagel registers an appropriate asterisk. Again.

* Rudy Giuliani is still popular with the GOP base but he, as I may have written before, will have a growing problem as more people become better acquainted with his official positions and personal background.

* When Giuliani declared he was not in favor of a pardon for Scooter Libby, I suggested to one newspaper that was one more straw on the back of the Conservative camel and it appeared to me that the camel's knees were beginning to buckle.

* Romney, who may well win the first quarter fund-raising sweepstakes, will not be considered a viable candidate for very long if he doesn't make a move in the national polls soon. Being tied with Sam Brownback (R-Ks) is not where his campaign thought it would be at this point.

* McCain, whose campaign has finally gotten out of the starting blocks is statistically unchanged at 22%; more important for him is that Giuliani is being drawn back to the pack. But, McCain's campaign has to begin to make its own destiny and not just be reflective of the activity (plus or minus) of the other major candidates.

* Newt will suffer from a potential Fred Thompson candidacy because Fred may become, in many GOP voters' minds, the alternative to the Big Three (Giuliani, McCain and Romney) which is the position Newt has been holding since the beginning of the campaign.

* On the Democratic side, Hillary still holds a largely unchanged lead over Obama 35% to 22% with Al Gore remaining at 17% and Edwards gaining five percentage points to 14%.

* Gore has not indicated he will enter the race but a worrying stat for the Hillary and Barack campaigns has to be Gallup's point that Gore is viewed favorably by 84% of Democrats -- a full 10 percentage points higher than Clinton.

* If Gore follows Thompson's construct that he is "leaving the door open" for a Presidential run, the Democratic race will turn into a mad scramble probably ending up in a Gore v. Clinton stretch run next February 5.

* The Boston Globe has a piece by the AP's Nedra Pickler, wondering whether there is any substance to the Obama campaign.

* On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: Links to the transcript of Fred Thompson's interview on Fox, the Gallup analysis of this latest poll and the AP piece on Obama. Also a Mullfoto which makes me smile and a Catchy Caption of the Day which will make you wonder.

[fireforeffect]

No, give Rudy some credit.

He has ALWAYS been a Republican. He can not run as a democrat. Even if most of his beliefs are just like democrat beliefs.

Like Zell Miller is a democrat from Georgia, Rudy is a Republican from New York.

[TommyDale]

At least Fred Thompson isn't a cross-dressing female impersonator.

[N. Theknow]

Does anyone have an alternative theory as to why Giuliani would slide 13 points? Was it something he said?

It's the Republicans who feel he can win but also who would vote for him while holding their noses the least of any other candidate aka McCain.

Once another candidate that can win appears that is a breath of fresh air, Rudy is SOL.

[TommyDale]

He has NOT always been a Republican, according to his own mother.

[Josh Painter]

RockinRight wrote: "Imagine a Thompson vs. Gore race. That could be interesting."

Please, Lord. Just grant me this, and I'll never ask for anything else ever again. Amen.

[Josh Painter]

RockinRight wrote: "Imagine a Thompson vs. Gore race. That could be interesting."

Please, Lord. Just grant me this, and I'll never ask for anything else ever again. Amen.

[freedomfiter2]

He has ALWAYS been a Republican. He can not run as a democrat. Even if most of his beliefs are just like democrat beliefs.


He supported Dems for statewide races and overwhelmingly appointed Dems while he was in office. The Dems have less to dislike about a Giuliani run than the Republicans do.

[Sig Sauer P220]

Imagine a Thompson vs. Gore race.

That could be interesting.


Yep, a 2-time Vandy grad school flunky (Gore - only because "daddy" pulled strings)
vs
A Vandy law school graduate (Thompson)

[hosepipe]

[ Thompson would eat Gore's lunch,iMo. ]

But Gore is a Dung Beetle..

[marsapan]

Oh geez.

:)

[massadvj]

If Gore follows Thompson's construct that he is "leaving the door open" for a Presidential run, the Democratic race will turn into a mad scramble probably ending up in a Gore v. Clinton stretch run next February 5.

In Gore's case there may well be a vacuum to fill by the time Hillary and Obama tear each other to shreds. In Thompson's case, there will not be for several reasons:

Giuliani's popularity is driven by his electability and crossover appeal, not his posititions on issues;

Giuliani is campaigning like a tireless bulldog. Thompson is campaigning like he expects to be coronated. Conservatives respect hard work;

Thompson cannot raise $100 million. Gore can.

Thompson is nowhere near the heavyweight (other than physically) within his party that Gore is.

In the end you'll find that Thompson's candidacy is a conservative wet dream. It makes them feel nice, but it will accomplish nothing. This race will come down to Giuliani versus McCain, and who wins will depend on whether the majority of social conservatives decide to go to McCain or Giuliani. In the end, I think Giuliani's better chances of success in November 08 will pull him over the top.

[NoBullZone]

> Does anyone have an alternative theory as to why Giuliani would slide 13 points?

I think he has it spot on. I think there are a considerable number of folks like me who feel the Hildebeast must be defeated at (almost)any cost. Giuliani is strong on national security and crime reduction, despite the considerable baggage he carries, and runs strong against the Beast. AT THIS POINT, I am very unsure that any of the announced pubs could defeat Clinton or Gore. But I feel Thompson CAN and he shares Rudy's strong points without the attendant baggage. And, fair or not, he has through his acting created a persona in the public mind that he is tough, thoughtful, able to make tough decisions.

[B Knotts]

Giuliani has never had much of a chance to survive the early primaries. He is too far from where most GOP primary voters are on too many issues. Were he to somehow win the nomination, he'd split the party and spawn a third party, ensuring a Democrat win.

His early numbers have all been name ID, which can only take him so far.

[Josh Painter]

All conservatives need to know about Hizzoner:

What kind of Republican? Is [Giuliani], for instance, a Reagan Republican? [Giuliani] pauses before answering: "I'm a Republican."

--Village Voice, January 24, 1989

End of story.

[massadvj]

Giuliani has never had much of a chance to survive the early primaries

Ahnold Schwartzenegger moved in and saved him by moving California to January. He will take that handily with the help of Ahnold's machine, and that will give him quite a bit of momentum. The party has set the system up so that no one without $100 milion can win. Thompson knows it. He won't run.

[skutter]

I wonder if Thompson is waiting to make his decision based upon the progress of the McCain and Romney campaigns due to the following reasons:

He is good friends with McCain and if McCain realizes his campaign isn't going anywhere, he would back out and support a Thompson run.

If Romney's campaign also becomes stagnant, he could potentially throw his support and fundrasising behind Thompson as well.

Due to egos, both may not be very likely; however, if either cadidate comes to the realization they cannot beat Giuliani, they may begin to 'campaign' for Thompson's VP nod.

[Graymatter]

I have to agree unless there's some evidence otherwise. In the 3 weeks between the Rudy at 44 poll and the Rudy at 31 poll, a bull entered his china shop. "Fredinand." :)
True, people are waking up to Giuliani's unconservative positions, but they don't all wake up in such numbers in the same short span of time. 13 points could be a crash in progress.

[massadvj]

As I say, electability is the wind driving his sails. You can attack him all you like on policy, but it will not stick. Until or unless you can produce a conservative who can win in November '08, criticism will run off Giuliani like water off a duck.

Did you see Giiuliani with that gavel opening the NASDAQ this morning, solidifying his hold on the money, campaigning with the tireless energy of a tenacious bulldog? What was Thompson doing today? Waiting for the serfs to grovel some more. You are certainly doing it well, I must say.

[riverdawg]

"... keep telling yourself that Thompson can [beat Hillary and Obama] and you'll have 4 years of Hillary to realize how wrong that is."

Hillary's negative ratings are so high that, at present, either Rudy, Mitt, Thompson or McCain would likely beat her in the general election. Only Newt would offer a close contest, because his negative ratings are almost as high as hers.

[TheKidster]

You know you're right, the Zell Miller comparison is an excellent one!