Will Rudy make us real? - Importance of state primary could rest on Giuliani

Ventura County Star ^ | March 28, 2007 | Timm Herdt

[Cincinatus' Wife]

With considerable frequency, given that the boss is a megamillionaire celebrity with a resort home in Idaho, A-list invitations everywhere and a private plane at his beck and call, the staff of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger issues one-sentence advisories to the press Sunday nights or Monday mornings: "The governor has returned to the state."

For the next 10 months, those who work for a few other politicians might have to adopt that routine as well. Rudy Giuliani's staff, for instance, or Hillary Clinton's, or John Edwards', or Barrack Obama's or John McCain's.

They, too, will return to California again and again and again.

The prospect of receiving all this attention from the likely next president of the United States (whoever he or she may be) has many observers in the state giddy with a sense of inflated civic pride that one might ordinarily expect of, say, Kansans excited about a visit from the secretary of agriculture.

It's as if they don't remember how, for his eight years in the White House, Bill Clinton behaved as if he were an adopted son.

Still, the idea of having influence in the making of a president can be heady, especially to the current crop of term-limited legislators who weren't around during the Clinton years and now suddenly find themselves being courted by people who could possibly score them some pretty decent invitations to an inaugural ball Jan. 20, 2009.

But will these new suitors still love us in December?

A good case can be made that, by then, they will have returned to their first loves — Iowans and New Hampshirites, knowing that, if they can woo them, the rest of the country will fall in line. After all, those states will be picking winners in January, while Californians will have to remain coy until Feb. 5.

At a conference last week in Sacramento, some political experts told the Californians in the crowd what they didn't want to hear: that California, mighty as it is, will still be a wallflower at the presidential primary dance.

But what if, mused Roger Simon, chief political columnist for the online political magazine Politico, the world's most famous New York Yankees fan decided to bet his candidacy on cleaning up on what some are calling Super-Duper Tuesday?

That day is Feb. 5, the day when California, New York and at least a dozen other states will hold their primaries.

What if Rudy Giuliani decides to keep his powder dry until then?

The reason he might, Simon explained, goes like this: The Iowa Republican Caucus is typically dominated by anti-abortion activists, and since Giuliani is pro-choice he might decide it's better to more or less ignore Iowa than to compete and lose.

New Hampshire might be tainted by the presence of a neighbor in the GOP field, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. In South Carolina, cultural conservatives rule the roost — and the twice-divorced Giuliani, who went to stay at the home of a gay friend after his second wife kicked him out of the New York mayor's mansion, doesn't exactly qualify.

So what if Giuliani decided, rather than to fight against the odds in the early states, to idle his campaign at first and then kick it into gear Feb. 5? He will surely win New York. If he could add California that night for a bicoastal large-state sweep, he might be the one candidate who could shun the conventional primary strategy.

"Rudy Giuliani has a chance to put California in play that way," Simon said. "Your best hope is if that's the way Giuliani goes."

There is evidence to suggest that could, in fact, be the Giuliani game plan. He was the only major GOP candidate to attend the state Republican Party convention last month, and he's been back twice since.

Sunday in Orange County, he gave a videotaped interview to Jon Fleischman, the publisher of the California-based conservative political blog the Flash Report.

"I love campaigning here," he gushed to Fleischman.

Social conservatives, of course, have in the past dominated Republican primaries in California as well. But Giuliani has a couple things going for him in California that he doesn't have in, say, South Carolina. He has the devoted and enthusiastic support of his longtime friend Bill Simon, which gives him credibility among California conservatives. And because of Schwarzenegger, conservatives in this state have learned a pragmatic lesson: They like to win, even if it means they have to grumble about a few policy disagreements.

And at the moment, a lot of California conservatives believe Giuliani can win. There's a very good chance that if he decides to base his nominating strategy on tipping his NYFD baseball cap at California Republicans, they'll swoon.

— Timm Herdt is chief of The Star's state bureau. His e-mail address is therdt@VenturaCountyStar.com.

[Coldwater Creek]

I lived in So.California for 26 years!

[LASVEGASBRETT]

I have Giuliani getting 306 votes and Hillary getting 232