Poll: Thompson Pulls Giuliani Votes

USA Today and Gallup offer their latest in polling for both parties in the extended presidential primary race, and a couple of changes have raised eyebrows. First, even the rumor of a bid by Fred Thompson has dented Rudy Giuliani's momentum, while John McCain's decline in support appears to have leveled off:

"On the Republican side, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson shook up the field with his announcement that he would consider getting into the presidential race. Thompson is familiar as the actor who plays District Attorney Arthur Branch on NBC's Law and Order. Chosen by 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, Thompson is third in the Republican field. He trails former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, at 31%, and Arizona Sen. John McCain, at 22%. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich is at 8%."

"Thompson's support seems to come largely from voters who had supported Giuliani. In the USA TODAY poll taken March 2-4, Giuliani's standing had been 13 percentage points higher, at 44%. McCain's support had been 2 points lower then."

"What does this mean? Conservatives who have supported Giuliani for his leadership and electability -- and plenty of them have -- would desert Rudy if a credible, consistent conservative entered the race... Thompson['s]... eight years in the Senate have left a more credible sense of consistency and center-right politics than Giuliani brings to the race. And according to the Post's blog The Sleuth, Thompson has begun seriously considering a run -- and has met with GOP powerhouse advisor Ed Gillespie."

Romney fared poorly in this poll... That has to be disappointing, especially since Hugh Hewitt's political biography and Romney's appearance at CPAC should have set the stage for a significant boost. Has Thompson's potential disrupted Romney's momentum as well? Possibly.

To illustrate, there's the often mentioned Ronald Reagan comparison. Reagan's career went from LaLa Land to Sacramento to Washington.

There is a great book out called "The Education of Ronald Reagan" that focuses on the very important transition period in Reagan's life: when he signed on to be GE's spokesman (GE Theater and later Death Valley Days on Sunday evenings) and ambassador of good will with the GE factories. His Hollywood career was cooling down so he really went to work on this GE assignment. As he would travel all over the country visiting GE plants and the regions surrounding those plants, he was starting to see the real America and to learn the attributes and strengths of capitalism. It was in this time period that he started to reject FDR's New Dealism and to adopt the Hayak, Henry Hazlitt concepts of the economy. He also could see the destructive nature of American unions during this period (he had been the President of Screen Actor's Guild and he had negotiated with the communist leaders who were trying to take over that industry).

These VERY important years evolved into Reagan taking up an active role in the Goldwater campaign and then giving "The Speech" on October 27, 1964. This was the same speech (modified, updated, edited, etc. over the years) that he had been giving on the "mashed potato" circuit for years but it took the country by storm. Two years later: he wins the governors race in California.

THEN, in the interim from his Governor's days to his second run for the presidency in 1980, he was giving his 3 minute radio essays -- that he wrote "in his own hand". He was a one-man think-tank doing this work and all those important conservative principles became emblazoned into his brain. When he stood up to talk about his principles -- he didn't have to search.

So that's the rest of the story... Unfortunately, there is no comparable out there. I just know that Fred isn't the real deal and he hasn't labored at this to have the deeply set principles that a Reagan had. And he's never been an administrator (Governor, President of the Screen Actor's Guild, Mayor, CEO). Yes, I've heard him do some Paul Harvey spots but I wonder who writes those.

BTW, my tag line refers to a speech by GE Executive Lem Boulware who was Reagan's mentor at GE. The speech ("Salvation is not Free") was made before the Harvard Business School graduating class of 1947, I believe, and it is recognized as the seedlings for Reagan's "Time For Choosing Speech" in 1964.

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