FRENCH ELECTION UPDATE :: Sarkozy Stable, Bayrou Falls to 19% in France

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research ^ | March 26, 2007 | Angus Reid Global Monitor

[Cincinna]

- Nicolas Sarkozy is holding on to the top position in the French presidential race, according to a tracking poll by Ipsos released by SFR and Le Point. 30 per cent of respondents would support the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in next month’s election.

Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 25.5 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 19 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 13.5 per cent.

Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Arlette Laguiller of Workers’ Struggle (LO), farmer-activist José Bové, Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT), and Gérard Schivardi of the Worker’s Party (PT).

Sarkozy currently serves as France’s interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds a six-point advantage over Royal. In addition, Bayrou leads Sarkozy by six points.

Yesterday, excerpts from a book written by Royal, which details her life and views, were released by several media outlets. The PS candidate writes: "I was born into a right-wing milieu. I do not share (the right’s) social pessimism, its respect for the established disorder, its veneration for laissez-faire economics. It was in leftist politics that I discovered the desire for emancipation and fraternity."

The UMP’s Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

Mar. 24 Mar. 17 Mar. 14

Nicolas Sarkozy 30% 29.5% 28.5%

Ségolène Royal 25.5% 25% 24%

François Bayrou 19% 21% 23%

Jean-Marie Le Pen 13.5% 12.5% 13.5%

Olivier Besancenot 3% 3.5% 3%

Marie-George Buffet 2% 2% 2.5%

Arlette Laguiller 2% 2% 2%

José Bové 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Philippe de Villiers 1% 1.5% 0.5%

Dominique Voynet 1% 0.5% 1%

Frédéric Nihous 1% 0.5% 0.5%

Gérardi Schivardi 0.5% 0.5% --

Run-Off Scenarios

Sarkozy v. Royal

Mar. 24 Mar. 17 Mar. 14

Nicolas Sarkozy 53% 52% 53%

Ségolène Royal 47% 48% 47%

Sarkozy v. Bayrou

Mar. 24

François Bayrou 53%

Nicolas Sarkozy 47%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point Methodology: Interviews with 1,245 French adults, conducted from Mar. 22 to Mar. 24, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

[Cincinna]

A tip of the hat to http://frenchelection2007.blogspot.com/ for this analysis in English of the race.

Note: This site is good, and updated frequently. There is, however, a somewhat anti-American tone to many of the posts, as well as a pro-Bayrou bias.

A clear and absent danger?

On the day when Nicolas Sarkozy steps down as Interior Minister in order to pursue his election campaign full time, he is likely much less worried than several weeks ago, when UDF candidate Francois Bayrou appeared ready to defeat Segolene Royal in the first round, and then demolish him in the second.

Yet while still present, the threat of Bayrou has noticeably receded. In fact, Sarkozy is likely now turning his sights once again on his socialist challenger, as a new LH2 poll shows them equal in the first round, and seperated by a mere 2% point margin in the second. Although Bayrou is much higher than his original 8% last fall, he is only hovering around 20%, more than the margin of error away from Royal. And if in mid-April he has still not caught Royal, it is probable that his support will further dwindle.

That being said, there is still a month to go in this campaign. Segolene Royal has shown her first signs of steady advancement against Sarkozy, unlike several times before when she would quickly bounce up and then fall down again. If this sustains it will be much harder for Bayrou to gain traction, but being the center candidate, he could also gain votes from Sarkozy if he were to stumble. He is certainly not down and out, but Bayrou will have to learn that it's the tortoise, not the hare, who wins elections.

SARKO SITE http://sarkozy.fr/home/

[Cincinna]

WHO IS SEGOLENE ROYAL?

If Ségolène Royal becomes president, she will be the first woman to lead France since Joan of Arc.

There have been other powerful French women: Edith Cresson, whose tenure as prime minister in 1991 lasted a few months (her faux-pas included branding the British a bunch of homosexuals and the Japanese ants), and Simone Veil, a former minister and president of the European parliament, famous for legalising abortion in France.

But is the country ready for its Madame la Présidente?

The French are intrigued by the glamorous 53 year-old they call the "gazelle" of French politics. She has built an image as a modern, strong-headed woman who battled sexism in and outside the family to reach the top in politics, while raising a large family.

Born in Dakar, the capital of Senegal, Marie-Ségolène - one of eight children - had a staunchly Catholic childhood. Her father, Jacques, was a devout and disciplinarian artillery officer, who, she maintains, considered women as inferior beings.

She successfully took him to court aged 19 for refusing to pay university maintenance fees, and has fought for women's rights ever since.

She went on to win a place in the prestigious Sciences Politiques university in Paris, and later the Ecole Nationale d'Administration, which grooms the country's top civil servants, where she met the jovial but fiercely intelligent François Hollande who is father of her four children and leader of the Socialist Party.

The couple rose quickly through the political hierarchy during the Mitterrand presidency: she became an adviser at the Elysée palace at the age of 29, a parliamentary deputy at 35 and a government minister at 38.

In 2004 she was elected president of the Poitou-Charentes region, in western France, from under the nose of Jean-Pierre Raffarin, then prime minister of the Gaullist right.

She used the region as a testing ground for her grass-roots approach, carving out policies aimed at improving voters' daily lives, such as saving the environment, improving schools, promoting opportunities for working women, and creating facilities for the disabled.

Although she rejected her father's values, embracing the bohemian Left, she clearly inherited his controlling streak. She caused uproar - and confusion - in 2006 when she suggested military-style training for juvenile delinquents.

Despite her warm smile, her opponents call her brittle, divisive and dictatorial: in a book just released by a former assistant, she is described as an "ambitious, calculating and authoritarian woman, who will stop at nothing to reach the highest office of State."

She would argue that all the same adjectives apply to her male rivals except that in their case they are called qualities.

Her bid for the presidency began early last year when she seized the headlines by campaigning with Chile's socialist presidential candidate, Michelle Bachelet, who went on to win he country's elections, becoming Chile's first woman president.

Her bid drew sneers from Socialist heavyweights: "Who will look after the children?" said Laurent Fabius, a former prime minister. "The presidential race is not a beauty contest," said Jack Lang, another prominent Socialist.

Such comments would cost them dear, as she trounced Mr Fabius and another older male rival from the Socialist old-guard, known as "les éléphants," in primaries last November.

Part of the appeal of "Ségo", as she is known, is as a relatively fresh face in French politics. Before last year, she had held junior ministerial posts for the environment, school education and family affairs. Ms Royal shot to national and international stardom for outflanking traditional socialist party barons and their followers by appealing directly to the wider electorate.

Her trump card is "participatory democracy," encouraging ordinary citizens to suggest how France should be run to hundreds of local committees. To this end, she has arranged 5,000 debates around the country and a website has been launched run by her supporters (including her oldest son), called "Desires for the Future" or Future Desires.

She has promised to publish the best ideas to harness French "collective intelligence." The project has created a real buzz on the blogosphere.

But while the debates appear to have been well-received on the ground, detractors of "participatory democracy" say it is a sham. One paper, l'Express, called it a "marketing ploy giving those in power a catch-all alibi to backtrack."

Ms Royal sought to provide a first "synthesis" of her findings in early February, but that the process is to be ongoing. One political analyst summed up her approach as that of Italy against France in last year's football World Cup, suggesting that Ms Royal is clearly hoping to cling on with little substance and win on penalties.

Many in her own party say they felt obliged to vote for her because she was the only candidate with any hope of pulling in as many votes as her right-wing opposite number, Nicolas Sarkozy, and as such could unite different factions of the French Left whose division in the 2002 elections played in favour of Jean-Marie Le Pen.

But many traditional left-wingers find her hard to accept, particularly since she questioned the merits of the 35-hour week introduced by the previous Socialist government.

They disparagingly accuse her of being a Blairite - she once said she admired his approach to health, education and poverty reduction. But if anything, her chief rival, right-wing favourite Nicolas Sarkozy has more in common with the British Prime Minister.

She has recently tried to win over the left-wing doubters by casting herself as a victim of right-wing "oligarchs" - big business and media - and champion of the workers against ruthless, unbridlled capitalist barons.

"We are fighting a hard Right, without principles, without virtue, an arrogant Right which... never varies on its aim: the defence of its privileges."

Ségolène's appeal as a 'gazelle' against 'les éléphants' comes with a down side. She faces persistent claims that she is a lightweight who lacks the political experience for the top job have been bolstered by her numerous gaffes, particularly on international affairs.

She said for example, that Iran should not have access to a civilian nuclear power programme, while the international community has only targeted its military nuclear ambitions.

In the past few months, she has appeared to endorse a Lebanese Hizbollah leader's remarks comparing Israel to Nazi Germany and attacking American "lunacy," praised China's notoriously expeditious justice system for being "quicker" and more efficient than France's, and seemingly supported independence for Quebec.

She also alienated traditionally left-wing teachers by suggesting they didn't spend enough time in classes.

Such trip-ups coupled with her refusal to outline detailed policy have dented her popularity to the benefit of Mr Sarkozy - some are saying that she will never recover. But, as political analysts are fond of repeating, the French presidential elections are won or lost in the last 15 days.

FROM THE SUBLIME TO THE RIDICULOUS : French identity crisis in tussle for national vote

By Henry Samuel in Paris

French elections coverage in fullFrench national identity was thrust to the heart of the presidential campaign yesterday, as Right and Left clashed over the Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal's controversial call for every household to own a tricolour flag and for all to learn the national anthem by heart.

The tussle over what it means to be French and which candidate best lays claim to the issue has gathered pace since Miss Royal shocked fellow Left-wingers by ordering La Marseillaise to be played at the end of her public meetings last week, supplanting the Internationale - the traditional Socialist anthem.

Originally a revolutionary song, La Marseillaise is today more associated with the Right. Critics on the Left suggested that Miss Royal's move was intended to court the far-Right vote claimed by the National Front's Jean-Marie Le Pen.

But Miss Royal, who is trying to catch up with the Right-wing frontrunner Nicolas Sarkozy in voting intentions ahead of next month's elections, insisted that there was a clear distinction between "the nation, of which one must be proud, and nationalism", and that the symbols of the republic should not be left to the Right or extreme Right.

"A head of state should encourage every French person to be proud to belong to the nation," she said on Sunday.

Despite their reputation for fierce, at times arrogant, pride in the nation, the French do not have the same flag-waving culture as in Britain: during the football World Cup, for example, the sale of tricolour flags enjoys nothing like the success of the cross of Saint George.

Overt patriotism is seen as a vulgar, American obsession by many. Mr Sarkozy, in particular, has said he wants to change this preconception.

Raising flagging Gallic pride is seen as a key electoral issue in a country suffering from a prolonged bout of self-doubt. Persistently high unemployment, sluggish growth and burgeoning state deficits are sapping national morale, and there is a general feeling that globalisation will only make matters worse.

In her electoral book, Maintenant, published today, Miss Royal likens herself to Joan of Arc, a symbol of nationality hijacked by the far Right in recent years.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Y'know, when ladies start thinking of themselves as Joan of Arc, it's usually 'bout the time they're ready for the nervous hospital.

[happinesswithoutpeace]

Go Sarko, Go!

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #2

So at the moment, the situation is stable. So far, so good.

[Lurker]

She has promised to publish the best ideas to harness French "collective intelligence."

So it'll be what...about 3 pages or so?

L

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #6

I think she refers to endless chattering overeducated French leftists unleash on all French media. That is what constitutes French "collective intelligence."

Believe me, French is really good at chattering.

[Savage Beast]

"If Ségolène Royal becomes president, she will be the first woman to lead France since Joan of Arc."

And with that, any similarity between her and Joan ends.

[SamuraiScot]

And with that, any similarity between her and Joan ends.

Yes, there's a distinction between holiness and Hillary-ness.

[SunkenCiv]

If Ségolène Royal becomes president, she will be the first woman to lead France since Joan of Arc.

Funny, but I don't remember a "Queen Joan of France". :')

[SunkenCiv]

Sarkozy criticizes Islam in oral exam
Sabah

France's Minister of Internal Affairs and the presidential candidate of the ruling party UMP, Nicholas Sarkozy took an oral exam at channel TF1 on Monday evening. Sarkozy responded to the questions of 100 French people during two hours and was accused of discrimination once again. Sarkozy responded: "I am not a racist. But if you are living in France, you need to abide by the rules. You can not strangle sheep or be a polygamist here."

[SunkenCiv]

Only in France, a Scandal for Policy Wonks [ Segolene Royal vs teachers union ]
TIME Magazine | Wednesday, November 15, 2006 | James Graff
Posted on 11/16/2006 12:35:29 AM EST by SunkenCiv
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1739424/posts

[SunkenCiv]

The book, Segolene Royal, Ombre et Lumiere (Shadow and Light), which is due out on Thursday, portrays Royal as cold, selfish, irascible and alternately lightweight and authoritarian in her political dealings. However, the insights it promises into her character -- for instance, when she is forced to choose between caring for a son with appendicitis and hosting President Jacques Chirac in her home town -- are somewhat clouded by the fact that Pathouot now works for two MPs in Sarkozy's UMP party. The Royal camp condemns the claims in the book as politically motivated "stupidities". Pathouot, who has fought a 10- year legal battle with her former employer over an allegedly unpaid salary, says that she has always had centre-right sympathies but denies setting out to undermine Royal in the build-up to voting at the end of April.

Royal hit by former aide's revelations -- John Follain
http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/commentary/commentaryother.asp?file=februarycommentary112007.xml

[SunkenCiv]

French Socialists in torment as rebel Royal steals the limelight
Susan Bell in Paris
June 6, 2006

The French Socialist party was struggling to finalise its manifesto for next year's presidential and national elections... Expected to propose a longer working week, the manifesto was due to be adopted last night before being debated and put to the vote by 200,000 party members on 22 June... Last week, Ms Royal's suggestions that national service be reintroduced and that young delinquents be "placed within a military framework" for their first offence triggered accusations from within her own party that she was copying the rhetoric of the hardline interior minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, her likely challenger on the centre-right. On Monday, Ms Royal dared to attack the pillar of modern French Socialist doctrine - the 35-hour working week, saying on her website it had created too much flexibility and blaming it for worsening the situation of the poorest workers... Ms Royal remains the strong favourite among Socialist supporters, with 68 per cent saying they want her to stand as their party's candidate for president in 2007.

[eleni121]

All I need to know is that Sarko wins!

BTW---When is this election over?

[George W. Bush]

Go Sarko.

I think the revelations about Miss World Communism and her tax shielding didn't go down well. And the UDF guy went up like a ballon and is coming down as fast.

Prez Sarko. Cool.

[Cincinna]

Thanks for the links. They give more interesting insights into Royal, her character and her program.

But given she is a card carrying Socialist, what more do we really need to know?

[SunkenCiv]

I think the election will be close, but only Sarkozy would be able to form a coalition strong enough to run the government for a reasonable time.