Posted on 03/25/2007 5:17:55 AM PDT by Dog
THE official notification, delivered in secure calls yesterday morning to senior Whitehall figures, was the latest dramatic behind-the-scenes move to get to grips with a crisis that is now engulfing the government.
After a day of shadow-boxing with a notoriously slippery regime, Tony Blair is set to up the ante: the plight of the Shatt al-Arab 15 is officially a crisis and he will need the Cobra team to handle it.
The clutch of VIPs will gather in an operations room several floors below Downing Street as early as this afternoon to plot an escape from a military spat that now threatens to become an international incident.
The decision came just 24 hours after the crew of HMS Cornwall had been caught in the confusion of direct confrontation with Iranian vessels in the searing heat of the Gulf.
As the crew members were surrounded in their two rubber dinghies, the Cornwall's commander, Commodore Nick Lambert, frantically radioed back to his own top brass for instructions.
The response to the inquiry, which had been immediately patched through to Ministry of Defence headquarters in Whitehall, was to hold fire.
The order to show restraint has been observed throughout the forces and the British government in the 48 hours since, but it is unclear how long both sides will be able to maintain control.
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett's first response to the gathering crisis on Friday was to keep to diplomatic conventions. After a hurried phone call to Blair, she immediately summoned Iran's ambassador, Rasoul Movahedian, to her office to explain their behaviour.
After a meeting described by officials as "brisk but polite", Beckett emerged to stress that she was "extremely disturbed" by events.
It was an understated description of the deep concern now gripping the government. Not only was Blair's administration alarmed at the risk to the 15 military personnel, which included at least one woman, but it was in no doubt over Tehran's ability to use their plight to make a wider point.
During a flurry of diplomatic activity in the hours after the snatch, the Iranians' rhetoric repeatedly elevated their action, and the alleged motives of the British, to a multinational affair. It was the eve of a second UN Security Council resolution imposing sanctions over Iran's refusal to halt its programme to enrich uranium. The Shatt al-Arab 15 were, from the start, pawns in a perilous international game.
"It looks like too much of a coincidence," a senior Foreign Office insider confirmed.
The response was a no- nonsense demand for Iran to relent - and Britain freely used the international community to back up its case. Beckett dispatched the UK chargé d'affaires, Kate Smith, to confront the government in Tehran, armed with the insistence that the British sailors had been in Iraqi waters.
In the meantime, Blair made a personal call to European allies, including EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, to secure a public denunciation of the Iranians' actions.
"It was impressed on everyone how important it was to raise the diplomatic temperature, rather than keep a low profile and let them make a song and dance of the situation," one defence official said.
"There is nothing to be gained in provoking a confrontation, because that would be playing into their hands. But neither should we let them have it all their way. We tried that before and we're still trying to get our kit back."
The smaller-scale precedent, the taking of six British marines and two sailors on the same waterway in June 2004, was a painful lesson. The personnel were only returned after they had been paraded blindfold on Iranian television and admitted entering Iranian waters illegally. Three years on, the government is still pressing Iran for the return of its boats and kit, including valuable radar equipment.
The degree of concern felt across Whitehall was demonstrated yesterday, when Movahedian was called back to the Foreign Office, this time to see Beckett's minister, Lord Triesman. The British were clearly attempting to warn off Tehran before it could begin to use the servicemen and women as a significant propaganda tool.
It was, however, a race against time - and through it all, the diplomats and the politicians were acutely aware that Tehran has built a foreign policy on disregarding diplomatic niceties.
Top level COBRA is an acronym for Cabinet Office Briefing Room A, where its meetings are held.
Tony Blair, senior ministers, police and security chiefs all take part. It is called after events such as 9/11, 7/7
and can evoke emergency powers such as suspending Parliament or restricting movement.
"Why were 15 British sailors sitting in dinghies?
How could they become surrounded by Iranian vessels?
Where was their mother ship and why would they allow the Iranians to leave with the sailors?"
Poor military planning.
Lack of cover and backup for boarding parties and their vessels.
Lack of existing standing orders REQUIRING the senior on-scene commander to protect his folks in whatever manner necessary.
Lack of a reaction plan to prevent enemy access to their port facilities after commiting this kind of aggression by destruction of those facilities if necessary.
Inexcusable lack of planning on the part of military leadership, especially since this exact same thing has happened before in the same waters.
I'd say that nails it square on...
lessons unlearned.
jw
Well, he goes on and on about chest thumping, yahoos and "having others fight the war" while he never gives any reason why we should not go after the Iranian regime. His is the policy of appeasement and weakness. You cannot negotiate or reason with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He will have to be addressed militarily and will probably have to be taken out.
What does Blair do?
Kiss Iranian arse?
Perhaps Blair should ask for a pair from the Iron Lady.
..... or a handful of well-place cruise missiles could torch a good portion of Iran's refining capacity, which would remind the Mullahs of how quickly and easily they can be returned to the 7th century. Iran's economy is already teetering, and they are desperate for more refining capacity (they have to import at least 40% of their refined petroleum products). Take out just 1 or 2 or 3 of Iran's 10 key refineries (and/or supporting pipelines) and they are immediately plunged into economic catastrophe...... major shortages and inflation, etc. The main danger (besides wimpy liberal "opinion" with much wailing and gnashing of teeth) is that it could swing the Iranian population toward a nationalist rallying cry with the loathsome Mullahocracy, which is currently immensely unpopular. Even Stalin was able to make himself a lot more popular (though the catastrophes for the USSR in summer 1941 were largely his fault) by using nationalism against the enemy.
Senior naval leadership involved in preparing or approving operational or contingency plans in that part of the world should have been "retired" by Saturday evening.
Just checked BBC and other British newspapers this evening for news on the kidnapping of these British sailors. It is absolutely amazing that you could read these papers and never know that this has happened unless you go to read some fine print. It seems that the British are so turned off on the war that they could care less about these servicemen. The Telegram one of the more conservative newspapers did have a story but even there they mentioned that never again should their nation be involved in trying to bring democracy to a part of the world that is not going to accept same and warned about any efforts to do the same for Iran.
Thought that readers on this website should know what is going on in the land of our chief ally. I personally believe that most of the rhetoric supporting this war came from Tony Blair not the US. If anything, GWB was bamboozled into to the attack on Saddam by the high flying idealism of Blair and now that ally is going to disappear from the scene within months leaving the US holding the bag.
"Just checked BBC and other British newspapers this evening for news on the kidnapping of these British sailors. It is absolutely amazing that you could read these papers and never know that this has happened unless you go to read some fine print. It seems that the British are so turned off on the war that they could care less about these servicemen."
A good leftist would call this supporting the troops. At least they are not burning them in effigy.
Don't dare question their patriotism.
These people (Rosie and her ilk) are nuts. The other thing that I find hard to understand is how Rosie, a failed, has-been comedienne, can somehow consider herself an expert on foreign policy. And to make it even more frightening, she apparently has an audience that believes her...
You'd never know this crisis was going on at all if you read the US press; the only place I'm seeing anything about it is here on FR, where people are gleaning little scraps from various sources.
As for Blair, I doubt that he talked GWB into anything with regard to Iraq. But whether he did or not, I honestly don't think the US would indulge in such idealistic plans again: no more attempting to conquer a country without any civilian damage, no more attempting to bring the blessings of democracy before the conquered citizens have a nice long period under martial law until they settle down, etc. And no more foggy ideas about Islam as a "religion of peace."
Don't confuse yourself. Bombing Iran would not be Iraq Part 2. It would be a merciless air campaign. Not a boot on the ground would ever be needed after we got through with them via sea and sky.
Roger that. It's "Tales of the Arabian Knights" over there. Always has been.
That would send a "message" as the political imbeciles are wont to repeatedly say.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.