Posted on 03/25/2007 5:17:55 AM PDT by Dog
THE official notification, delivered in secure calls yesterday morning to senior Whitehall figures, was the latest dramatic behind-the-scenes move to get to grips with a crisis that is now engulfing the government.
After a day of shadow-boxing with a notoriously slippery regime, Tony Blair is set to up the ante: the plight of the Shatt al-Arab 15 is officially a crisis and he will need the Cobra team to handle it.
The clutch of VIPs will gather in an operations room several floors below Downing Street as early as this afternoon to plot an escape from a military spat that now threatens to become an international incident.
The decision came just 24 hours after the crew of HMS Cornwall had been caught in the confusion of direct confrontation with Iranian vessels in the searing heat of the Gulf.
As the crew members were surrounded in their two rubber dinghies, the Cornwall's commander, Commodore Nick Lambert, frantically radioed back to his own top brass for instructions.
The response to the inquiry, which had been immediately patched through to Ministry of Defence headquarters in Whitehall, was to hold fire.
The order to show restraint has been observed throughout the forces and the British government in the 48 hours since, but it is unclear how long both sides will be able to maintain control.
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett's first response to the gathering crisis on Friday was to keep to diplomatic conventions. After a hurried phone call to Blair, she immediately summoned Iran's ambassador, Rasoul Movahedian, to her office to explain their behaviour.
After a meeting described by officials as "brisk but polite", Beckett emerged to stress that she was "extremely disturbed" by events.
It was an understated description of the deep concern now gripping the government. Not only was Blair's administration alarmed at the risk to the 15 military personnel, which included at least one woman, but it was in no doubt over Tehran's ability to use their plight to make a wider point.
During a flurry of diplomatic activity in the hours after the snatch, the Iranians' rhetoric repeatedly elevated their action, and the alleged motives of the British, to a multinational affair. It was the eve of a second UN Security Council resolution imposing sanctions over Iran's refusal to halt its programme to enrich uranium. The Shatt al-Arab 15 were, from the start, pawns in a perilous international game.
"It looks like too much of a coincidence," a senior Foreign Office insider confirmed.
The response was a no- nonsense demand for Iran to relent - and Britain freely used the international community to back up its case. Beckett dispatched the UK chargé d'affaires, Kate Smith, to confront the government in Tehran, armed with the insistence that the British sailors had been in Iraqi waters.
In the meantime, Blair made a personal call to European allies, including EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, to secure a public denunciation of the Iranians' actions.
"It was impressed on everyone how important it was to raise the diplomatic temperature, rather than keep a low profile and let them make a song and dance of the situation," one defence official said.
"There is nothing to be gained in provoking a confrontation, because that would be playing into their hands. But neither should we let them have it all their way. We tried that before and we're still trying to get our kit back."
The smaller-scale precedent, the taking of six British marines and two sailors on the same waterway in June 2004, was a painful lesson. The personnel were only returned after they had been paraded blindfold on Iranian television and admitted entering Iranian waters illegally. Three years on, the government is still pressing Iran for the return of its boats and kit, including valuable radar equipment.
The degree of concern felt across Whitehall was demonstrated yesterday, when Movahedian was called back to the Foreign Office, this time to see Beckett's minister, Lord Triesman. The British were clearly attempting to warn off Tehran before it could begin to use the servicemen and women as a significant propaganda tool.
It was, however, a race against time - and through it all, the diplomats and the politicians were acutely aware that Tehran has built a foreign policy on disregarding diplomatic niceties.
Top level COBRA is an acronym for Cabinet Office Briefing Room A, where its meetings are held.
Tony Blair, senior ministers, police and security chiefs all take part. It is called after events such as 9/11, 7/7
and can evoke emergency powers such as suspending Parliament or restricting movement.
Because Iran was able to keep the equipment. I'm not dissing the Brits, I have only admiration and respect for your military. It's counting coup. They hit you and took something of yours. You only got part of it back. PLEASE don't be offended. It's how ISLAMOSTS - have I told you that Islamists are just as brain damaged as any other Democrat - think?
They've done it to us before too, you'll recall.
>Guennie we are all wondering why.<
Ah, but the Shadow knows. I doubt that the Iranians would be drawing a line in the sand unless they have all their ducks in a row. I fear some blood must flow in America and the UK before thing is over.
Mr Blair showed his true colors after 9/11/01, a fact which has earned him a permanent place in my heart, though I still often disagree with some of his policies. In fact it's hard to keep the screen from getting blurry, remembering the way he tirelessly traveled the globe, drumming up support for an internationsl retaliatory attack on Afghanistan.
Mister Blair knows that International Law is solidly on his side. Imanutlessjobber and his accomplices the mad mullahs are in a more than precarious position.
I see what you mean. Don't worry, I'm not offended :-) Blair's involvement in this incident (and the manner of his language) suggest to me that the current situation may take longer to resolve. I don't think that the Iranians will be able to extract anything from the British government, but they might keep the equipment again!
Lets hope that the UK and US will be able to look back on such incidents ten years from now living in far more peaceful world!
Thank you for your kind words. I think Mr. Blair will be judged well in the history books for his stand in the War on Terror. I sometimes forget that he is the leader of the party of the left in the UK! (Though his domestic policies often remind me! :-)) I'll never forget where I was on 9/11 and my heart went out to the US people, as did those of my mates.
Has anyone considered the impact of a naval blockade? Starve them out. The Iranian populace would only have the mullahs to blame.
I dont think the Brits are poofters at all. In fact, I think the Iranians and indeed the world might be underestimating the UK. Ignore the negativity, America hasnt exactly been stalwart either-Sadr City is still standing, Qaddafi is still breathing and Somalia is still a hell hole. The Brits have stood with America time and time again. I think its time America stood with Britain for a change..
Best solution! Take the island and declare it a Territorial Protectorate. Joint USA/UK protection. ................ FRegards
Cheers mate, I appreciate the sentiment. :-)The U.S. and Britain have always been there for each other- and long may it continue!
They do know that. That's why they want nukes. They figure they can do what they want with impunity once they have them - and they might be right.
Iran does not have the ability to produce a "WWIII".
The longer Iran gets away with these things, the stronger it will become and the higher the cost in blood to bring to an end. And sooner or later we will have to bring it to an end. Our only choice is when.
What has the Brits and the U.S. nervous is that turning this into a military confrontation will quickly lead to the Straits of Hormuz being blockaded by the Iranians.
It would take a coordinated effort of sea and land military actions (clearing the mines and invading the land for a buffer zone of protection) to accomplish this. If you want to include China and Russia on the list, then the international outcry would be "huge". The No Blood for Oil crowd would have its field day, too.
Despite the blather from the Brits, there are no half measures here. It's either let it play out like 2004, or go in all the way.
A naval blockade of all Iranian shipping is the way to go, but we have to be ready for all the shit that will come raining down with it.
"A naval blockade of all Iranian shipping is the way to go, but we have to be ready for all the shit that will come raining down with it."
I think just the 'usual suspects' would put up much of a protest. Oil prices would take a hit for awhile but.......
I don't think it would last long. Iran crumbles without their refined oil products that they have to import. I think the mullahs would have to worry more that the West.
uk, you will like this:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=5e7_1174537550
It is a good site to bookmark too, if you don't have it already.
And yes, they may keep the equipment.
I'm sure that your strong post will really frighten the Iranians now.
Your statements notwithstanding, your government will do nothing that even hints of force, so why be there?
*****Except for the Germans, Russians & Japanese, the casualty rate during WWII was nothing compared to WWI. For example, the UK lost 1m vs 350k; France 1.4 vs 250K. In fact, while the US lost 350k in WWII over a much longer & wider global scale, we lost 55k in less than 6 mos of fighting in WWI.****
Considering that the UK was not a very populous country per sq. mile to being with - losing 350K in the 2WW after losing one million in the 1stWW - approx. 20years apart - is a demographic disaster.
I would be happy to pay $4 a gallon for 6 months to crush the Iranian economy.
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