Posted on 03/23/2007 9:17:13 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's directror of strategy sent top supporters a memo 3/22 crowing about a "notable" growth in support for Giuliani since he declared on 2/5.
Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.
Other key bullet points:
Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.
Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.
We've seen some equivocal polling. But our sense is that what Seaborn claim is broadly correct. Giuliani's opponents now say that the mayor's character issues will soften him up and that his cultural liberalism will be the coup de grace. Read the entire memo after the jump.
Growth in Mayor Giuliani’s Ballot Strength
In early 2007, some people said that Mayor Giuliani would not run for President. On February 5th, Mayor Giuliani filed his FEC paperwork and legally declared himself a candidate for the Presidency. He ended this momentous day with an appearance on Hannity & Colmes.
Since the Mayor made his intention to run for President clear, we have seen notable growth in support for our campaign. Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.
The Mayor is Better Known to Conservatives than Some will Acknowledge
Many columnists and pundits question what will happen when Republicans “find out about the Mayor’s views on social issues.” Many of these stories are being generated by the same people that speculated that Mayor Giuliani would never run for President. Over the course of the last month, that question has been dispelled.
A recent Newsweek poll shows Mayor Giuliani with a 25-point lead among Republican and Republican leaning voters and a 30-point lead among social conservatives. Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.
Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.
According to recent analysis by Gallup Poll, Mayor Giuliani receives 47% of the votes among those that attend church “nearly weekly or monthly,” leading his nearest opponent by 28-points. Mayor Giuliani’s ballot share decreases to 31% among those that “attended church weekly” - yet he maintains a 7-point lead over his nearest opponent.
After reviewing other data, I have found similar evidence.
About half of Republican primary voters consider themselves to be “very conservative.” Among those “very conservative” Republican voters, Mayor Giuliani generally maintains a lead.
Another interesting point, about two-thirds of “very conservative” Republican primary voters consider Mayor Giuliani to be a moderate or a liberal. Yet even with these voters, Mayor Giuliani holds a 5-point lead over his nearest competitor.
The fact is - most Republicans believe that Mayor Giuliani is a social moderate or liberal and Mayor Giuliani leads all major candidates in this race (even among “very conservative” Republicans).
There are, of course, some voters that will never vote for Mayor Giuliani, and we know that we will see polls tighten. But the “when voters find out about Rudy’s record the sky will fall” notion is a myth.
Rudy’s positions and record are already known among most Republican primary voters and are factored in to the current polling.
What We Can Expect
Discrediting the commitment of the Mayor to run for President did not work. Telling Republicans that the Mayor’s positions on issues are unacceptable to primary voters does not work either.
As we have seen the next line of attack is aimed at discrediting the Mayor’s character. This attack – while not surprising – should be treated for what it is - cheap and political.
We expect polls to tighten as we move in to spring – such is the nature of the political process. While we are realistic about our expectations going forward, we are also pleased with where we are today and are confident our current support among Republican primary voters is strong.
And 85% of the American CITIZEN public. But they don't matter, it's all about 'winning'!
http://www.cis.org/articles/2006/2006pollrelease.html
Numbers make a difference. One key finding is that when told the scale of immigration (legal and illegal), voters overwhelming thought it was too high. Also when told how much the Senate bill would increase legal immigration voters tended to reject it. This would seem to undermine the argument that voters are only concerned about illegality and not the level of immigration. The level of immigration used in the questions are those widely agreed upon by experts based on government data.
btt
WTG, RUDY!!
Thanks for the great report.
I'm playing tennis tomorrow so am not staying long, but I wanted to say hi and bye, lol.
See ya tomorrow, Hit. Be good now. ;-)
INS deports 3000 people a year. there are 400K illegals in NYC, and the federal government has no intentions of deporting them. this whole "sanctuary city" issue is a red herring. almost every city and county in the US does the same thing - they do not use their local police forces to conduct sweeps of public schools and emergency rooms, looking for illegals. show me any place in the US doing that? here is an interview transcript of Rudy with OReilly where he talks about the realities of running a city with so many illegals, in the face of a federal government that isn't doing anything about it:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2006/08/rudy_on_immigration.html
you want thousands of kids in the streets because their parents are afraid to send them to school? you want thousands of sick people because they are afraid emergency room workers will report them to INS? and then have these same sick people working their jobs in the restaurant industry?
Baloney. 90% of the Hunter folks will stick with Hunter. Though most Hunter fans like Thompson, Newt, Tancredo, Brownback as well. IN other words, we can abide by a conservative.
The folks blowing Thompson's horn are not the Hunter crowd.
the anti-Rudys have a lot emotionally invested in him losing, to the point they fantasize about the strength of some of the other (more preferred) candidates. Wait and see.
It's a red herring issue only because you want it to be....because you deem it so. It's not a moot point to the hundreds of thousands of American workers that can and will do the work "they" are doing....especially the construction work. Take a look in New Bedford and see the lines of Americans that were eager to do the jobs that the federal government made immediately available to them by rounding up the illegals.
What Rudy "did" about illegals in NYC has little to do with what he says he's GOING to do as my President....when he BECOMES the federal government.
you want thousands of kids in the streets because their parents are afraid to send them to school?
No, I want those kids deported, along with their parents.
you want thousands of sick people because they are afraid emergency room workers will report them to INS?
No, I want thousands of sick people deported and the rest of the sick people kept out. Seen the emergence of MDRTB lately? Such a great addition to the American culture.
and then have these same sick people working their jobs in the restaurant industry?
No, I want them DE-FRIGGIN'-PORTED.
Immediately and securely seal the southern border...then the northern border.
Find every illegal we can and kick 'em over the sealed border.
REALLY punish those that hire 'em.
Immediately stop all benefits.
Take away the perks of hiring them (like huge financial and personal freedom measures)....and take away all the benefits that cause the "everything's free in America" mentality that helps bring 'em here.
THEN, we'll need an ASAP Constitutional Amendment stating that only those that're born in America of at least one American citizen are American citizens themselves to end the anchor baby situation.
Yes, I am a ruthless and heartless @%^&!#&...the army made me that way.
ANY one but Rudy, that's who it is.
"Rudy’s positions and record are already known among most Republican primary voters and are factored in to the current polling."
That would show that internally, rudy is pulling the wool over his own followers' eyes. It is not going to be fun slicing this worm.
Trying to turn NYC into a sanctuary city... OR,
His words during a run for the Presidency...
Which one should I believe more...?
***If I were a rudy follower, the answer seems to be "his latest words." If I were a truth seeker, I would hope the light of his own words (see below) would help make the decision.
But as a Duncan Hunter supporter I am choosing not to engage in debate on this Rudy Giuliani thread on Free Republic. As a freeper I am disappointed that there are fans of a liberal presidential candidate trying to push socially liberal views on this socially conservative forum. In particular, I have noticed that the Rudy G fans do not answer posts questioning the qualitative substance of their candidate, or the posts are met merely with insults. And in short, I have noticed that rudy followers are simply rude.
The 2 polls on Free Republic put forth an obvious SOCON (only Hunter fits that description given) versus a SOLIB (it certainly fits rudy).
http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/poll?poll=171
http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/poll?poll=172
Rudy splits the base.
I have noticed time and again that rudy supporters rudely send up the false dilemma of "who would you vote for, Hildebeast or Rudy". This particularly impolite at this early of a point in the primary cycle. Since this is a socon forum (not even a GOP forum), it is very impolite to ask double-bind questions, especially this early in the race.
Since team rudy is so fond of its own false dilemma, I would expect them to answer this false dilemma.
My contention: If rudy gets the nomination, he splits the base, possibly splits the republican party, and loses the election.
Rudy followers’ contention: If Hunter gets it, he wins the base and loses the election.
Hypothetical to answer the rudy followers’ hypothetical. Both sides losing to Hillary.
Side A: The solib republican splits the base. The MSM turns on him the moment he is nominated. Hillary wins. Republican party is split.
Side B: The socon republican wins the nomination, loses to hildebeast in a tough fight. Republicans are united against the hillary presidency.
Which candidate is best for the republican party, Side A or Side B?
Win-Win false dilemma:
Side A: Solib wins presidency by ignoring the socon base and permanently splitting the republican party.
Side B: SoCon wins presidency by (obviously) relying on the socon base.
Which candidate is best for the republican party, Side A or Side B?
Here's 2 more cases to round out this Pascal's wager for politics. The win-lose scenarios.
Hunterbot contention: Hunter wins, Rudy loses.
Hunter is a socon who unites the base. His cross platform issues attract wide swaths of democrats looking for someone who would support our military across the board, stay true on WOT and security issues like the border and militia/gun ownership, and even strikes a balance on the protectionism-fair trade-open border/free trade continuum. Hunter would proceed from uniting the base to attracting a large contingent of crossover votes and beat Hildebeast, never once relying on the MSM to do anything but what it has done in the past.
Rudy, on the other hand, splits the base. As soon as he would win the nomination, the MSM would turn on him just as they turned on the last liberal candidate with high poll numbers, and we end up with a split base, a president Hillary, and a fractured republican party.
Which candidate is better for the republican party, side A (rudy) or side B (Hunter)?
Rudybot contention: Rudy wins, Hunter Loses.
Even though he's an acknowledged solib, Giuliani is the only candidate who can beat Hillary. He polls highest, so he wins the nomination and would beat Hildebeast in the general election. Hunter would lose the general to Hildebeast due to name recognition factors and a seeming contention that socons are yesterday's news. Rudy pulls the republican party leftward the same way aRINOld is doing in California. A Hunter loss would mean a united republican party against Hildebeast; a rudy win could mean the end of the republican party similar to what happened to the Whigs over the social issues of their day.
So out of the 4 cases, Hunter wins 3 of them. And out of ALL 4 CASES, Free Republic and the republican party is better off with Duncan Hunter than Rudy as the candidate. This social liberal candidate is simply not healthy for the republican party nor for FR. And rudy followers are proving to be very impolite freepers.
Duncan Hunter's campaign website
http://www.gohunter08.com/
Sam Hunter: Duncan Hunter's Ambassador to Free Republic
3/13/2007
Posted on 03/13/2007 10:11:39 AM PDT by Ultra Sonic 007
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1800187/posts
Sam has been answering questions, unlike the crickets we hear on rudy threads.
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Rudy Giuliani video on YouTube: "I would like to run on the Democratic line "
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1793570/posts
Video of Rudy Giuliani in his own words
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVBtPIrEleM
Transcript of video below.
Will the real Rudy show up at CPAC?
Culture of life:
ABC clip:
George Will: "Do you think Roe v Wade was good constitutional law?"
Rudy Giuliani: "Yes I believe, I believe it is."
Cnn Clip December 2, 1999:
Announcer: "Giuliani was then asked whether he supports a ban on what critics call partial birth abortions, something Bush strongly supports."
Rudy Giuliani : "No, I have not supported that, and I don't see my position on that changing."
Immigration
CNN clip:
Announcer: "Back in 1996, mayor Giuliani went to federal court to challenge new federal laws requiring the city to inform the federal government about illegal immigrants."
Rudy Giuliani: "There isn't a mayor or a public official in this country that's more strongly pro immigrant than I am. Including disagreeing with President Clinton when he signed an anti-immigration legislation about two or three years ago."
Gun control:
CNN clip
Rudy Giuliani: "I'm in favor of gun control"
Meet The Press:
Tim Russert: "How about registration of all handguns?"
Rudy Giuliani: "You know I'm in favor of that. I've been on your show many times."
Gay Rights:
CNN Clip:
Announcer: "As mayor he supported civil unions, and extending health and other benefits to gay couples."
ABC Clip: "I supported domestic partnership legislation and signed it"
Meet The Press:
Tim Russert: "So should gay people be openly allowed to serve?"
Rudy Giuliani: "I think people should be judged on the merits. And there should not be a specific focus on someone's sexual orientation."
First Amendment:
ABC Clip
Cokie Roberts: "Would you vote in the senate in favor of Mccain / Feingold?"
Rudy Giuliani: "Yes, I'm a big supporter of Mccain / Feingold. I have been for a long time."
Party Loyalty:
ABC Clip:
Rudy Giuliani: "Frankly George, I'd like to run on all the lines. I'd like to run on the liberal line, the conservative line, I'd like to run on the democratic line if I could figure out how to do it."
Conservative Values:
Meet The Press:
Tim Russert: "Whether it's gays in the military, gun control, campaign finance, late term abortion - you and Hillary Clinton are in sync on those issues."
Rudy Giuliani: "Well then maybe the other side should stop the 'He's part of the vast right wing conspiracy'."
Welcome To CPAC, Rudy!
End clip.
I’m pro-choice. I’m pro-gay rights, Giuliani said. He was then asked whether he supports a ban on what critics call partial-birth abortions. “No, I have not supported that, and I don’t see my position on that changing,” he responded. Source: CNN.com, “Inside Politics” Dec 2, 1999 http://www.ontheissues.org/2008/Rudy_Giuliani_Abortion.htm
ANDERSON COOPER 360 DEGREES (November 14, 2006)
RUDY GIULIANI (R), FORMER MAYOR OF NEW YORK CITY: I'm pro- choice. I'm pro-gay rights.KING: Giuliani supports a woman's right to an abortion, and back in 1999, he opposed a federal ban on late-term abortions.
GIULIANI: No, I have not supported that, and I don't see my position on that changing.
KING: Immigration could be another presidential landmine. Back in 1996, Mayor Giuliani went to federal court to challenge new federal laws requiring the city to inform the federal government about illegal immigrants.
JEFFREY: He took the side of illegal immigrants in New York City against the Republican Congress.
KING: Giuliani opposes same-sex marriage but as mayor, he supported civil unions and extending health and other benefits to gay couples. He also supported the assault weapons ban and other gun control measures opposed by the National Rifle Association.
GIULIANI: I'm in favor of gun control. I'm pro-choice.
Republican Big-Wigs Support Pro-Abortion Event in NY
Pro-abortion Governor George Pataki and New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who also supports unrestricted abortion, are co-chairs of the 2000 Choice Award Presentation to be held on May 30 at the St. Regis Hotel in New York City. The event is sponsored by the Republican Pro-Choice Coalition, a group that is campaigning for the removal of the pro-life plank from the Republican National Platform.
http://www.nationalreview.com/murdock/murdock200503010743.asp
Bump
If we're the ragers, what are the Rudyphiles?
The catchers?
I can't believe so many people think Rudy can win in Nov 08. Will not happen. Gay marriage, dead babies and gun laws will not float in the south. Wake up people, all the dems have to do is win one state that Bush won and it's all over. Rudy is a deal breaker for the south.
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