Posted on 03/23/2007 9:17:13 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's directror of strategy sent top supporters a memo 3/22 crowing about a "notable" growth in support for Giuliani since he declared on 2/5.
Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.
Other key bullet points:
Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.
Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.
We've seen some equivocal polling. But our sense is that what Seaborn claim is broadly correct. Giuliani's opponents now say that the mayor's character issues will soften him up and that his cultural liberalism will be the coup de grace. Read the entire memo after the jump.
Growth in Mayor Giuliani’s Ballot Strength
In early 2007, some people said that Mayor Giuliani would not run for President. On February 5th, Mayor Giuliani filed his FEC paperwork and legally declared himself a candidate for the Presidency. He ended this momentous day with an appearance on Hannity & Colmes.
Since the Mayor made his intention to run for President clear, we have seen notable growth in support for our campaign. Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.
The Mayor is Better Known to Conservatives than Some will Acknowledge
Many columnists and pundits question what will happen when Republicans “find out about the Mayor’s views on social issues.” Many of these stories are being generated by the same people that speculated that Mayor Giuliani would never run for President. Over the course of the last month, that question has been dispelled.
A recent Newsweek poll shows Mayor Giuliani with a 25-point lead among Republican and Republican leaning voters and a 30-point lead among social conservatives. Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.
Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.
According to recent analysis by Gallup Poll, Mayor Giuliani receives 47% of the votes among those that attend church “nearly weekly or monthly,” leading his nearest opponent by 28-points. Mayor Giuliani’s ballot share decreases to 31% among those that “attended church weekly” - yet he maintains a 7-point lead over his nearest opponent.
After reviewing other data, I have found similar evidence.
About half of Republican primary voters consider themselves to be “very conservative.” Among those “very conservative” Republican voters, Mayor Giuliani generally maintains a lead.
Another interesting point, about two-thirds of “very conservative” Republican primary voters consider Mayor Giuliani to be a moderate or a liberal. Yet even with these voters, Mayor Giuliani holds a 5-point lead over his nearest competitor.
The fact is - most Republicans believe that Mayor Giuliani is a social moderate or liberal and Mayor Giuliani leads all major candidates in this race (even among “very conservative” Republicans).
There are, of course, some voters that will never vote for Mayor Giuliani, and we know that we will see polls tighten. But the “when voters find out about Rudy’s record the sky will fall” notion is a myth.
Rudy’s positions and record are already known among most Republican primary voters and are factored in to the current polling.
What We Can Expect
Discrediting the commitment of the Mayor to run for President did not work. Telling Republicans that the Mayor’s positions on issues are unacceptable to primary voters does not work either.
As we have seen the next line of attack is aimed at discrediting the Mayor’s character. This attack – while not surprising – should be treated for what it is - cheap and political.
We expect polls to tighten as we move in to spring – such is the nature of the political process. While we are realistic about our expectations going forward, we are also pleased with where we are today and are confident our current support among Republican primary voters is strong.
There is the "STOP RUDY" ping list. I'll go way out on a limb and say that those folks have defined themselves as anti-Rudy.
There are groupS of individuals who feel that other, truly conservative candidates offer a better choice.
Those folks I would classify as pro-Thompson or pro-Romney or pro-McCain, etc.
Question is whether people are more defined by their support of a candidate or their opposition to a candidate and how reasonable are the arguments pro and con. IMHO it's a more positive message to be seen as a supporter than as a mere naysayer. "STOP RUDY" isn't an option on a ballot.
Sounds like there are plenty of social conservatives who think for themselves, and realize there are HUGE issues at steak, not just unsolveable social issues.
Who's the guy who's doing the flip-flopping?
He should be easy to spot.
Conservatives want a TRUE conservative choice, not just brand recognition.
I'll even admit that even I don't have a favorite candidate, yet.
Thank God the convention IS OVER A YEAR AWAY.
However, I don't like a lot of Rudy's social positions. In many cases (abortion, illegal immigration, guns, et al) HE'S PART OF THE PROBLEM.
I'll do my part to ensure that a true conservative candidate is nominated. TRUE CONSERVATIVES have a history of actually getting elected. If we get Rudy, I'm gonna have to hold my nose and pray for the health of every justice on the USSC, conservative or liberal. Since I like to look at past performance instead of words, there's a good chance he'll continue the trend of appointing liberal judges.
Time is a cruel mistress, that she is. Mistakes, bad decisions...all of it will come back to haunt you one day.
But I also recall FReepers nipping at John Kerry for "flip-flopping"...guess it's okay if a Republican does it during the run-up to an election.
Exactly, that's why it must be accomplished RIGHT NOW!
I'd rather get info on Rudy from Rudy's official website. Any idea what site he's using right now? The joinrudy2008 site doesn't even list immigration as an issue.
Thats the site. You can write the site and ask them to put the issue up there. The site just got re-vamped yesterday so they are still in the process of adding stuff.
Looks like they all have done it except for Duncan Hunter from what I can see of his record.
Thanks for the ping to this outstanding news!! I can see this is sending the ragers over the edge into full blown hysteria :-)
Did some diggin' on my own and the Rudy of 1996 loses my vote:
I know "Executive Order 124" offends some people. They ask, "Why should we pay to provide services for illegal immigrants?"
The answer is, "It's not only to protect them, but to protect the rest of society, as well."
New York City is defending "Executive Order 124" in court because there are times when undocumented immigrants must have a degree of protection in order to avail themselves of crucial services. For example, parents fearful of being deported may not send their children to public schools. If they don't, a potential 60,000, 70,000, 80,000 undocumented children could remain hidden in apartments or be turned out in the streets. Not only would these children suffer irreversible damage, they could end up doing damage to the rest of society as well.
Similarly, illegal and undocumented immigrants should be able to seek medical help without the threat of being reported, possibly deported. While these people are sick, they're just as sick and just as contagious as citizens. They could possibly become a danger to public health if they were not able to seek health care services.
And I'm sure everyone can understand the practicality of wanting undocumented immigrants to feel comfortable reporting criminals to the police. Reporting criminals protects all people, citizens and non-citizens alike.
Fully disagree with all the above.....as I don't give a flying Democrat's arse how "comforatble" "they" "feel". If he agrees with the McCain/Kennedy model, he further loses my vote.
That's fine - to each his own.
The only one who agrees with you on immigration would be Duncan Hunter.
There are a few Rudy fans starting to spin stuff about Thompson.
Thanks for posting!
BS ping.
He'd be good as the 2nd guy on Rudy's ticket. :)
You better go buy a Schwinn charlie.
They're like parents in denial of the antics of a disfunctional brat child. "Not my boy!!"
There is a perfect example of how out of touch he is with crime, 3rd world corrupt cultures and human nature. They don't report crime because the criminals operate out of the illegal alien community, often related to each other or under the thumb of a drug cartel and smugglers. They aren't going to rat out their own, it's a tribal thing. Not unlike voting for whatever is thrown at us just because it has an R beside it's name.
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