Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[gathersnomoss]

Jeff didn't ask me. Will someone please look up conservative?

[philman_36]

What a shame. What you're saying, basically, is that money buys the Presidency.
How low we've sunk if that is the case.

[Gracey]

Hannity has a poll on his site


http://www.hannity.com/index/sitepoll-results-action/poll.198

[cowdog77]

Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans
_________________________________
"Not with this conservative Republican."

Nor this one.

[Marine Inspector]

Hmm, the informal office poll among all the Conservative and Libertarians here where I work reveal ZERO (0) support for Rudy McRomney, yes, all three.

Same results here in my office.

[MACVSOG68]

My point is, RINO Rudy will do just as much damage as HRC.

And my point is that the only group I can think of off hand that will not particularly benefit politically from either of those two is the social right. And for me, that's a good thing, as many parts of their agenda do not belong in the campaign, nor in the law.

It's still 10 months out from the primaries. The field is by no means set, and the choices are not Clinton or Giuliani.

I agree with you completely on that. I would say that Clinton is in greater danger because of her negatives than Giuliani, who right now is the most popular person in America. But, yes, if other candidates can put together something other than a local or regional organization and raise the tens of millions of dollars needed, there is time left. But that person has to get past the top three, none of whom is acceptable to the social right. So outside of Fred Thompson, I'm not sure who else could do it.

We should be insisting that the RNC put forward the best candidate for our country, and that candidate is in no way RINO Rudy.

that's exactly what the primaries are for. As for "WE", there is a large split in our Party right now, so there is no "WE". I ask only that everyone work for their choice, and after February, "WE" all finally come together to defeat Hillary, or Obama, or Gore.

[dforest]

Hillary's FBI files are the most overrated source of power I can recall. They are a great myth but only that.

How do you know?

People like Rudy always have secrets. Guaranteed. Rudy is their dream come true. If they can only get us to go for it.

Suit yourself, I am not buying, ever.

[KATIE-O]

It's worth precisely as much as any other individual on this board.

At least I can look at my self in the mirror in the morning knowing that I will not support that POS Giuliani. He may be your hero, but he's just another Clintoon as far as his record goes.

If he wins and puts pro abortion judges on the SCOTUS, will you be proud of yourself then?

Sure you will, remember, win at ANY cost, right?

That sounds more like the philosophy of the left.



And you sound like the typical liberal Kos-Tard flamer. I didn't call your candidate a POS, nutwad!! You people are sickening!

[InfraRed]

Your problem is finding someone who can BEAT him. And that is a HUGE problem.

Unfortunately, that statement does bare truth at the moment. However, the fat lady is not yet singing.

Particularly since those you would prefer have NO following to speak of, are complete unknowns, nutcases or hated.

No following? You brought up FR polls earlier, so here's a taste of your own medicine:

Rudy vs Fred
Fred Thompson 	65.9% 		4,165
Rudy Giuliani 	19.3% 		1,219

Rudy vs Newt
Newt Gingrich 	60.5% 		3,478
Rudy Giuliani 	24.3% 		1,395

Rudy vs Duncan
Duncan Hunter 	59.3% 		3,058
Rudy Giuliani 	28.6% 		1,474

Bonus:
Rudy vs McCain
*Note: Rudy does better here, but it's still bad... 49.6% will NOT vote for Rudy!
Rudy Giuliani 	47.0% 		2,208
Write-in 	19.7% 		924
Third party 	13.2% 		618
Stay home 	9.3% 		435
John McCain 	5.3% 		248
Undecided 	3.5% 		163
Leave blank 	2.1% 		99
               100.1% 		4,695

[philman_36]

Just in case you missed your own words...
Principle might matter to Freepers, but it matters little to the big money folks. They took a financial beating backing social conservatives in 2006, so they are going for a different kind of horse this time. The polls suggest that Giuliani is a thoroughbred who can win in the fall, and the money wants to back a winner more than anything else.
A Presidency, bought and paid for by the big money folks.
And don't forget, "the money" will want that horse to pay off once he wins too. You ought to ask yourself...What's the price to be paid?

[Pox]

You're full of shi'ite, IMO.

It's still 10 months out from the primaries, and you've swallowed the liberal MSM koolaid wholesale. Anything can happen between now and then, and your insistence that you have an insider's point of view I do not believe.

Instead of blindly following what the MSM liberals want, which is one of the Rudy McRomney 3, why not put our efforts into convincing Mr. Thompson that he would be the best candidate the Republicans could field, as in encourage him to run.

Hitlery can be beaten easily by Mr. Thompson, and I'm going on record now as stating that Giuliani will not win the election, and having him as the ticket will be a disaster for the country in another way, win or lose.

Giuliani will not encourage conservatives to get out and vote come election day. That translates to the dims picking up even more seats in the House and Senate. Get it?

You RINO Rudy supporters need to step back from the abyss and see what your line of reasoning has in store for this country come election day. Disaster is the theme.

[Howlin]

Gee whiz, a FR poll as evidence Rudy can be beaten?

FGS, get real.

[Pox]

See my post #291.

I see that I must have hit the target since I'm starting to get some real good flak heading my way!

[Redcloak]

Kinda amazing who's sitting at home on a weekend, huh?

[justshutupandtakeit]

Rudy's stances are no mystery. His accomplishments have been listed over and over as you know. These you ignore to concentrate upon the laws he served under and pretenses that he would govern the nation like he did NYC. This is consistent with your tendency to underestimate his ability, his appeal and his intelligence. Add to that the great love of insulting those who support him and you don't get a winning combination.

[MACVSOG68]

Hillary's FBI files are the most overrated source of power I can recall. They are a great myth but only that.

That's true, and even conservative sources have substantiated that. But it sure did sound good at the time.

[papasmurf]

They didn't call me. You?

:O)

P

[justshutupandtakeit]

How do I know? Because those files have been blamed for more things than Karl Rove including tooth decay and flatulence.

"Rudy is their dream come true." Who is "they"?

[justshutupandtakeit]

"...money buys the Presidency." Hillary will have more to spend than Rudy and she won't even get close.

[massadvj]

What a shame. What you're saying, basically, is that money buys the Presidency. How low we've sunk if that is the case.

It's been the case since the American Revolution, my friend. This country was established not by peasants with pitchforks,or even religious zealots, but by merchants mad about their taxes. They respected God enough to put His name on our money, but their politics were mainly motivated by money and remain so to this day.