Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[Elyse]

Most of my "conservative" family and co-workers love Rudy.

A couple of months ago, I would have been rudytooting with the best, except that when he seemed to be serious about running, I started researching him, as I would any candidate I was seriously considering voting for, sans rose colored glasses.

My conservative family and friends thought that Rudy was a conservative Republican, as I did, and they would be in love with him right now, if I hadn't passed on my research results.

When people view Rudy outside the 9/11 aura I think a lot of them will be changing their views about supporting and voting for him, too.

[KATIE-O]

My issues with Rudy revolve around the social issues. . .

and his 'history'. If Rudy manages to get the nomination, there's a great deal of dirty laundry he's going to have to deal with. The Dems won't show the least bit of mercy, of course. I truly think that is what would cause Rudy to lose the general election.

If he does get the nomination, I would vote for him in the general election. But I do think he'll lose.




In a perfect world Rudy would be pro-life, all the way. He would be pro-gun without any reservations. He will still win the nomination because the Republican party is growing up and realizing that placing this litmus test on every candidate is a losing proposition. America is a moderate nation, instead of a very conservative country. Rudy will win the Independent vote and the Moderate Democrat vote as well as the Conservative vote. He has promised to nominate conservative judges, continue with tax cuts and not to promote "an abortion agenda," (as though he ever had one.) He will not advocate amending the 2nd Amendment. These are all scare tactics from Rudy haters who are also willing to turn the White House over to the corrupt duo, Bill and Hill, or Barack Obama or the Breck Boy by voting for a loser who happens to be in lock step with their litmus test.

[motzman]

I see you're from Indiana, so I'll assume you've never seen Rudy debate or conduct a press conference with hostile media.

Rudy will cream any of your pretend candidates.

Were you a fan of the Donald Rumsfeld press conferences? Rudy makes Rumsfeld look like an amatuer.

And that 'aint wishful thinking.

Funny thing is, though, in 2009 when Rudy's doing a presser with the White House Press Corpse, I bet many of you rabid-Rudy haters are going to be cheering the loudest at the smackdowns Rudy will administer to the talking head hosebags.

[wagglebee]

Great Find!

[Calpernia]

I feel like a Who on Horton's dust speck.

I'm am here! I am here! I am here!

[Calpernia]

bump!

[Calpernia]

bump! :)

[KATIE-O]

1. "National" polls count for nothing. If they did, Colin Powell would be President.

If Colin Powell ran, he would be President.



NOT IN A MILLION YEARS!!!!

[massadvj]

Giuliani is more divisive than any other candidate that I can remember since Perot.

Only within the Republican party. Not with the public at large. The polls are not wrong. Giuliani gets almost 50 percent of the vote in a general election before he spends a dime. It would take tens of millions of dollars just to match him in name recognition, and no other candidate except McCain has that kind of warchest at the moment. McCain already has the name recognition, but his high negatives make him a nonstarter.

The smart money in the party is already betting Giuliani. Rudy is quietly, steadily accumulating the strongest financial backing, brain power and endorsement base the party can offer. It is all over but the shouting, a fact that Thompson will soon come to realize and Gingrich has already concluded.

[Pox]

No less classy than your repeated pimping of Rudy G. nonstop on this forum as if you were his secret lover, IMO.

If Fred Thompson decides to run I do hope we will see the same exuberance from you concerning his eventual front-runner status for the Republican nomination, but for some reason I doubt it.

[TommyDale]

Please note that there has been no comment from the Julie-Annie people about post #35. Anyone else hear the crickets?

[cookcounty]

"And wouldn't you say that you consider Thompson a 'realistic candidate' because he is an actor?

I think you're confused about Thompson in putting him down as "an actor".

Acting is a late-in-life hobby for Thompson. Born in rural Alabama, he put himself through private college by working as a bicycle repairman and selling shoes, he got his law degree with honors, served as Asst US Attorney, Special Counsel at the Watergate hearings, went back to private law practice, ran for the Senate against a well-connected veteran of the Congress with twice as much money and cleaned his clock 61-39% statewide. He supported 90% of the conservative issues, often with great articulation.

He authored the failed Term Limits Constitutional Amendment (which would have limited him to two terms).

He ran for a second term and won by and cloobbered his opponent by an even wider margin than his first race. He did not run for a third term because it would have put him over the 12-year limit he had proposed for Senaotors (His first term was to fill in the vacated seat of Al Gore, and consequently of only 2 years, 1 month duration). He was Senator for 8 years, 1 month, not 6 years. By the time of the election, Hillary and Edwards will still have less Senate experience than Thompson and Obama will still be looking for a beach towel to dry his ears

So what if he became an actor at the age of 50? He's articulate and knows how to connect with people. You can have all the perfect position papers you want, if you don't have that connectability, you're just playing bean-bag.

So you can work for Giuliani, whom you agree with 20% of the time (admittedly on few but very important issues) or Romney who agrees with you 50% of the time (depending on the week) or Thompson, whom you agree with 80-90% of the time, speaks well, and has a history of powerful political victory. Why is this hard?

[wagglebee]

The ONLY way you can ever get a truly scientific poll is when the person doing the polling has NO CLUE what sort of results you are looking for and no personal preference himself.

There have been way to many polls that have proven to be very wrong. And as I've said many times before, if "frontrunner status" was all it's cracked up to be, then how come Mo Udall, Scoop Jackson, Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown and Howard Dean were never nominated?

[dynachrome]

That is a frightening poll, even if a slanted one.
Call yourself "conservative" and support the likes of Rudy?

[servantboy777]

Not this conservative

[JohnnyZ]

Most voters look first and foremost for someone who aptly articulates what they are looking for.

Yeah. Bob Dole, Al Gore, George W. Bush, John F'n Kerry. Articulate. Charming. Right....

[Pox]

It is all over but the shouting

It most certainly is not over, and in fact hasn't actually begun aside from announcements and endorsements. Gingrich must realize that he has absolutely no chance of winning the election, which is why you will not see him run, IMO.

Fred Thompson will bounce RINO Rudy right out of the ring if he decides to run, IMO. And Republicans better hope that he runs, otherwise we will be stuck with the the male Republican version of HRC.

[wagglebee]

Your brilliant research of late may even force me to rethink my opinion of blonds! :-)

[TommyDale]

"...Obama will still be looking for a beach towel to dry his ears"

That would be one huge beach towel, too!

[nickcarraway]

It's amazing that Giuliani has changed everything about the U.S. Last time I checked, about 20 states had voted against homosexual marriage, but now you are telling me that the U.S. is for homosexual marriage. As far as I know, Giuliani is to the left of the majority of U.S. citizens on every social issue, but that has magically changed?