Scientists question climate tinkering (A 'cheesy' take on Global Warming and "fixing" it)

AP on Yahoo ^ | 3/18/07 | Seth Borenstein - ap

[NormsRevenge]

WASHINGTON - When climate scientist Andrew Weaver considers the idea of tinkering with Earth's air, water or sunlight to fight global warming, he remembers the lessons of a favorite children's book.

In the book, a cheese-loving king's castle is infested with mice. So the king brings in cats to get rid of the mice. Then the castle's overrun with cats, so he brings in dogs to get rid of them, then lions to get rid of the dogs, elephants to get rid of the lions, and finally, mice to get rid of the elephants.

That scenario in "The King, the Mice and the Cheese," by Nancy and Eric Gurney, should give scientists pause before taking extreme measures to mess with Mother Nature, says Weaver of the University of Victoria.

However, in recent months, several scientists are considering doing just that.

They are exploring global warming solutions that sound wholly far-fetched, including giant artificial "trees" that would filter carbon dioxide out of the air, a bizarre "solar shade" created by a trillion flying saucers that lower Earth's temperature, and a scheme that mimics a volcano by spewing light-reflecting sulfates high in the sky.

These are costly projects of last resort — in case Earth's citizens don't cut back fast enough on greenhouse gas emissions and the worst of the climate predictions appear not too far away. Unfortunately, the solutions could cause problems of their own — beyond their exorbitant costs — including making the arid Middle East even drier and polluting the air enough to increase respiratory illnesses.

Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said mankind already has harmed Earth's climate inadvertently, so it's foolish to think that people can now fix it with a few drastic measures.

But at Trenberth's same Boulder, Colo., research center, climate scientist Tom Wigley is exploring that mock volcano idea.

"It's the lesser of two evils here (the other being doing nothing)," Wigley said. "Whatever we do, there are bad consequences, but you have to judge the relative badness of all the consequences."

Studying the concept of how volcanic pollutants could lessen global warming — the Earth was slightly cooler after the eruption of a Philippine volcano 16 years ago — was brought to the forefront of scientific debate last summer by Nobel Laureate Paul Crutzen.

"It was meant to startle the policymakers," said Crutzen, of Germany's Max Planck Institute for Chemistry. "If they don't take action much more strongly than they have in the past, then in the end, we have to do experiments like this."

In the past, scientists and others have avoided talking publicly about these ideas, known as "geoengineering," even though the concept was first raised in 1965. They worried that the hope of a quick technological fix to global warming would prevent politicians and the public from making the real energy sacrifices that they say are necessary to slow climate change.

David Keith, a University of Calgary engineering professor and one of the world's experts in geoengineering, says that just because tinkering with the air, water and sunlight are possible, they should not be substitutes for cutting emissions just because "we've been politically weak-kneed."

Instead, he said, such options should be researched as an "insurance policy" in case global warming is even worse than forecast. And that prospect has caused climate scientists to talk about the issue more openly in recent months.

There is also a chance that discussion of such radical ideas as a volcano or sun shade could shock the world into acting to reduce fossil fuel emissions, Keith said.

However, White House science adviser Jack Marburger, said spending money on geoengineering doesn't make sense. The federal government, which spends about $2 billion on climate change science, invests nearly all of its research on energy sources that produce fewer or no greenhouse gas emissions.

"I don't think it's scientifically feasible at this time to consider a plan like that (geoengineering)," Marburger told The Associated Press. "The real urgency is to reduce carbon dioxide."

In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change looked at geoengineering as part of its report on how to lessen global warming. It found some promise, worried about unexpected side effects, legal and ethical implications, and concluded that "unlike other strategies, geoengineering addresses the symptoms rather than the causes of climate change."

Even proponents of geoengineering research are wary.

"We are playing with fire here," Keith said. "Those of us suggesting we do something are suggesting it with real nervousness."

___

Associated Press Special Correspondent Charles J. Hanley in New York contributed to this report.

[NormsRevenge]

A man walks past an advertisement for a climate change exhibition outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels March 14, 2007. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir (BELGIUM)

[NormsRevenge]

Ash from erupting Mount Pinatubo blocks the midday sun as Filipino tribesmen in Tarlac, north of Manila, cover their faces and flee villages near the volcano in this June 22, 1991, file photo. When Pinatubo erupted 16 years ago it cooled the Earth for about a year because the sulfate particles in the upper atmosphere reflected some sunlight. Several leading scientists, from Nobel Laureate Paul Crutzen to the late nuclear cold warrior Edward Teller, have proposed doing the same artificially to offset global warming. (AP Photo/Itsuo Inouye, File)

[Pox]

This is what worries me the most about the global warming farce. Although it is most likely caused by the Sun and perhaps some human activity (like pavement and cities which retain heat unlike your average non developed countryside), these retards will think of something incredibly stupid to do in the name of saving us all and end up killing the bulk of humanity off.

[Dallas59]

While Oppressive Socialist European governments (our Socialist gov too) think of how to limit the progress of their subjects and keep them from progressing...

[OrioleFan]

Back when I was in FFA in Virginia in the 60's, I remember getting all of the Southern and White pine seedlings we could plant for free. We planted thousands of trees. Think I can use that to offset my carbon footprint, or does the fact that those forests have been harvested and replanted several times for pulpwood mills make them carbon neutral.

It was funny, here in Ohio when they had open house at my child's High School, and the field biology teacher held up a tree stick and asked if anyone knew what it was and how to use it. They call them Biltmore sticks now.

[bkwells]

ping

[Antonello]

I don't see the harm in exploring seemingly far-fetched ideas, if only to eliminate them as practical solutions.

To borrow from the author's children's book reference, had the king explored the cat option, as well as others, regardless of preconceived perceptions of feasibility before implementing it, he might have avoided that plan and went with, say, a mousetrap idea instead. In other words, this story isn't saying that attempts to fix problems always result in making bigger ones. It is saying that attempts to fix problems without thinking the solutions through result in bigger problems. Therefore exploring all options makes sense, as opposed to lazily implementing the one that seems on the surface to be the least inconvenient without bothering to think it through.

To me, instead of supporting the author's viewpoint that exploring all options is a mistake, this fable actually undermines it.

[Tarpon]

Things that go overlooked, air pollution on a grand scale ... red dots indicate a fire, likely started on purpose. Third world land clearing. Second hand smoke everywhere, countrywide and into the next.

I wonder how many carbon credits you have to buy to burn down your country?

The agricultural fire season in Southeast Asia spreads smoke across a large portion of, from west to east, Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos. Country borders are marked by black lines. This image of the region was captured by the MODIS on NASA’s Aqua satellite on March 4, 2007.

Places where MODIS detected actively burning fires are marked in red. During the area’s dry season (roughly fall-winter in the Northern Hemisphere), intentional land management fires, as well as accidental forest fires that spread from agricultural areas are common in Southeast Asia.

I am sure the Goracle would be glad to sell you what you need.

[JasonC]

Nah, if they let real science and real industry at the imaginary problem, they would solve it for a pittance without disturbing humanity in the slightest. But the whole point is to order mankind around and outlaw capitalism through scaremongering and superstition, so they can't have that.