Deconstructing Giuliani

RCP ^ | 8/10/06 | Tom Bevan

[pissant]

It seems clear Rudy Giuliani is going to run for president. What isn't clear is whether he has any chance of winning the Republican nomination. Some, like RCP's own Ryan Sager, have been pointing to early horserace polls and other anecdotal evidence, assiduously trying to deconstruct the conventional wisdom that says Giuliani's positions on social issues will doom him with conservative base voters. That debate, however, isn't likely to be settled any time soon, and the truth of the matter is that it's Giuliani's position on other issues that may end up disqualifying him with many Republicans.

Set aside for the moment Rudy's well-known liberal views on "God, gays, and guns" and the messy details of his personal life. Let's look at how he stacks up against his most direct rival, Senator John McCain, on three of the most important issues to Republican primary voters.

Immigration

While McCain has taken heat for his support of comprehensive immigration reform, Rudy is every bit as pro-immigration as McCain - if not more so. On the O'Reilly Factor last week Giuliani argued for a "practical approach" to immigration and cited his efforts as Mayor of New York City to "regularize" illegal immigrants by providing them with access to city services like public education to "make their lives reasonable." Giuliani did say that "a tremendous amount of money should be put into the physical security" needed to stop the flow of illegal immigrants coming across the border, but his overall position on immigration is essentially indistinguishable from McCain's.

[pissant]

Rudy, bringing Schwarzneggerian liberalism to a town near you.

[finnman69]

What isn't clear is whether he has any chance of winning the Republican nomination.

Any chance?

Giuliani Solidifies Lead in Republican Nomination Poll
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1796838/posts

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Rudy Giuliani is cementing himself as the early front-runner for the 2008 Republican nomination, while Hillary Rodham Clinton maintains that status among Democrats. This is according to the latest USA Today/Gallup presidential nomination preference poll of rank-and-file Republicans and Democrats. Giuliani's emergence is notable because the early Republican front-runner has won that party's nomination in each election since 1972. On the other hand, it has been rare for the early Democratic front-runner to lead throughout the nomination phase.

Further down the line of candidates, Al Gore appears to be picking up some steam among Democrats following his high-profile appearance at this year's Oscars. Gore maintains he does not plan to run, and although he has achieved his best showing to date in Gallup's 2008 election polling, his absence from the race would likely not change the complexion of the Democratic contest. 

Republican Race

According to the March 2-4 poll, 44% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they prefer Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, to be the party's 2008 presidential nominee. Arizona Sen. John McCain is second with 20%. At the beginning of the year, the two were statistically tied, but Giuliani has picked up support in each of the last two months, while McCain's support has declined, leaving Giuliani the clear front-runner. 

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (9%) and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (8%) are the only other Republicans to register more than minimal support at this time. 

Giuliani's currently strong positioning is underscored by 64% of Republicans naming him as their first or second choice for the nomination, the only candidate above the majority level on this combined basis. McCain is the first or second choice of 42% of Republicans, while Gingrich (21%) and Romney (14%) are the only others to break into double digits.

Republicans' Preferences for Party Presidential Nominee in 2008
March 2-4 USA Today/Gallup Poll

	First Choice	First or Second Choice
	%	%
	Rudy Giuliani	44	64
John McCain	20	42
Newt Gingrich	9		21
Mitt Romney	8	14
Tommy Thompson	2	4
	George Pataki	1	5
Sam Brownback	1	2
Tom Tancredo	1		2
Duncan Hunter	1	1
Mike Huckabee	*	3
	Jim Gilmore	*	1
Chuck Hagel	*	1
Other	2	3
None	3	1
All/Any		*	--
No opinion	8	10
Percentages on first or second choice add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.

Giuliani Solidifies Lead in Republican Nomination Poll
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1796838/posts

[wmfights]

We really aren't getting much of a choice are we.

Rudy for abortion, gays, and against guns.

McCain against free speech, old.

Romney blue state Pub, for abortion, now against.

[pissant]

Lets have a looksee in 6 months. I'm sure you will be heartbroken that the lib will slide from his perch.

[flashbunny]

You're just out of touch with main stream NY city "conservatism".

[JustaDumbBlonde]

"Presidents, going back to the beginning of the republic, generally appoint people on the Supreme Court that they believe agree with them." -- Rudy Giuliani, July 2005

So much for the contentions that Giuliani will appoint conservatives. Rudy is pro-choice and says that presidents generally appoint judges that agree with them.

[Theresawithanh]

No, the author of this piece is wrong, wrong, wrong, according to many posters here. A candidate like Rudy doesn't have to explain his positions to the likely voter - he's RUDY, d@mmit! /s, of course!

Bumping.

[pissant]

Not much of a choice in the big three. But there are a couple of good options.

[pissant]

Yes, and San Fran "conservatism" as well.

[pissant]

He swears now he will appoint strict constructionists to the bench. Those words never before left his lips til 2006.

[wmfights]

But there are a couple of good options.

I like Newt, but he's not in and doesn't have the money. Who else is left?

[pissant]

Cult of personality, I guess.

[pissant]

see my tagline.

[stephenjohnbanker]

"You're just out of touch with main stream NY city "conservatism".

ROTFLMAO!

[wmfights]

Hunter will get killed on immigration.

[OB1kNOb]

Rudy, bringing Schwarzneggerian liberalism to a town near you.

"Ya Rudy, look at how many so-called conservatives have taken our bait, hook, line, un seenker!"

[pissant]

Nope. He already got his bill put into law to build the double fence, signed by Bush in Oct. He is far out in front of the pack on illegal immigration.

[finnman69]

which will you do first?

sign up for Libertypost or remove the Go Hunter from your tagline?

[HamiltonJay]

The Primaries will determine if Rudy is the candidate or not, and if he wins the Primaries he is the R candidate.... All this naysaying about G Man not being able to win a general is innanitty at this point.

The biggest risk G Man has if he becomes the candidate is that the D's back some stuffed suit to play right of him to split the R vote and hand the White House to Hitlery with a plurality, but not majority, just like they did with Perot in 92 and 96.

That's the only real risk of a weaker social issue candidate being at the top fo the R ticket. Not that Republicans won't show up and vote, but that a small amount will be rope a doped into handing the WH over to flaming libs like Hitlery and Obama.

[Liz]

He swears now he will appoint strict constructionists to the bench. Those words never before left his lips til 2006 ........."Presidents, going back to the beginning of the republic, generally appoint people on the Supreme Court that they believe agree with them." -- Rudy Giuliani, July 2005

The premise that "Presidents generally appoint people on the Supreme Court that they believe agree with them" or that Julie-Annie (throwing a bone to conservatives) saying he will appoint "strict constructionists" is only part of the story.

We know from our own experience that a president's judicial nominees are subject to intense scrutiny by outside forces----the president's political supporters.

The presidential nominee may or may not survive the scrutiny-----I give you Harriet Meirs.

Irregardless of the crumbs he's throwing to conservatives about potential nominees, Rudy is joined at the hip to NARAL, Planned Parenthood, and the most radical pro-abortion elements.

You can bet your bottom dollar judicial picks will be scrutinized, decided upon, and seated, by the NARAL crowd. NO WAY would NARAL permit their boy Rudy to install conservative-leaning judges.

Anybody who believes Rudy would seat conservative judges is smoking something illegal.

The pro-abortion savages have commenced the killing of the innocents. Who knows where it will stop with Rudy controlling the levers of government, and NARAL whispering in his ear?