I disagree. The writer overestimates the number of conservatives who will stay home and severely underestimates the number of independents and moderates who will vote for Rudy.
I think Rudy takes NY, all or most of the south, maybe CA, and wins it all.
Those in the second category, they’d like a more conservative candidate, but will vote for whoever gets the GOP nomination, are actually helping assure that they will never get what they want in a candidate.
The writer nailed it. If conservatives put party over principle, they will be to the GOP what the blacks are to the Dems.
Next year we'll all be looking at a completely different picture. There's a long road ahead, kick back and relax and watch the show.
He can win a popularity contest but he'll crash and burn when the issues begin to get some discussion.
Question.... do you all think that Newt Gingrich could be added to the "conservative" winners list if he runs?
review
History is an interesting study....... Things change over the course of time and what was the status quo in the past isn't necessarily the status quo of today. One item [the WOT] may well be the driving factor to throw out his so called locked in voter patterns...... we'll see as the primary and general evolves.
All true.
But politics is not static, and it's not December 2004, it's February 2007.
I like Socons. I, personally, am not afraid of a Socon governing majority.
But the bulk of the swing vote, which doesn't really belong to either side, is either appalled by, or terrified of, Dobsonites, Schiavo-savers, and free exercisers.
The fault lies on both sides, but whose "fault" this situation is doesn't matter.
What matters is that the Socon tag on a Presidential candidate in 2008 is poison.
The Rove "permanent majority" strategy assumed two things. First, that he could add in Socon nonvoters (who were the rightmost 10% of Socons) without disturbing existing voters, and, second, that he could recruit and retain those Socons by seeming to promise them things which he and Bush had no intention of delivering. (I don't think the White House's behavior reflects a very high opinion of their new Socon voters)
In my opinion, this strategy is now in ruins. It sufficed to re-elect Bush (which, to be fair, was what Rove was hired to do), but it won't allow forward movement because the "new Socon voter" wants to be paid now, and the old Republican voters won't pay up, because they recognize that their center-right neighbors and leaners will never, never agree to an explicitly Socon President who will deliver the goods.
The people who keep posting pictures of Rudy in drag want to McGovernize first the process, then the party.
I don't think they are as numerous, or as active, as they seem to feel they are. But we'll see in the primaries.
That's why, as they say, they play the games.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Anti-Gun----------------Anti-Gun
Pro-Abortion------------Pro-Abortion
Clinton Policy----------Clinton Policy
Gay-Loving--------------Gay-Loving
Looks awful in a dress---Ditto
I could go on but the Rudy-Lickers will continue to abandon the constitution and stab the unborn in the back no matter what. I guess they love a man in drag.
If he gets the nomination I'm staying home for the first time ever or voting libertarian for the first time ever.
It won't make a nickel's worth of difference who wins.
Very well said, the republican establishment and their cronies will try to tell us that the only important thing is to beat hillery. Then try to scare us into believing that we have to pander to the left in order to win and in so doing electing somebody who is just as bad as her.
Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo(sp?), Fred Thompson, and Newt are our best hopes for a candidate that will fire up the conservative base and win a general election.
I just cant see supporting a candidate that has demonstrated that he is pro-gay, pro-abort, anti-gun dresses in drag and has fooled around on not one but 2 wives and done so blatantly with no regard for the institution of marriage or to the office that he was elected to. If he did winhe would be a Republican Bill Clinton just waiting to happen.
We lost the last election because we didn't come out strong on borders and illegal immigration, but we still had the traditional values voters and pro life and pro 2nd amendment people on our side and just barley lost in a lot of places because our base wasn't motivated. So what so now the establishment people are trying to give us some one who says he is strong on borders and the WOT, well whoopee! He is essentially a hillery with different genitals and has said as much himself, so we will pick him and lose all the pro lifers, 2nd amendment and values voters will stay home and we will lose by a huge margin and leave the democrats in complete power.
"syllogism" a crafty argument. Rudy wins because he will be the anti beast. He will be the candidate who wants to fight the WOT and she will be the candidate who wants to surrender. By Nov 08 that will be very clear.
seems reason and well thought out.
even with the numbers off, you have to take his statement VERY seriously.
Keep in mind it was only a few hundred votes in a county in FL where a conservative TV evangalist has his HQ. (where Ann Counter made an appearance at a seminar I might ad)
Guiliani does not a one issue voter problem, Guiliani has MULTIPLE problems on many equally important issues that can not be seperated from the content of his character.
Play the Electoral Vote 'game'. You can give Rudy every State that touches water on both coasts - Red and Blue - and he comes up SHORT.
Plus he's still behind Hillary in NY by 10%. No POTUS has ever lost his home state and won - except Al Gore (hahaha). Plus he's tied with the Beast in FL and is behind her in Ohio.
Rudy would give the RATS the biggest landslide since LBJ.