[AIM-54]

Well, they can build all the carriers they want, but without any longstanding tradition of carrier/battlegroup operations, my guess is that their new CV(s) will be eventually become coral fodder.

That's the sort of complacency that leads to military disasters. History books are full of such lessons.

[Strategerist]

That's the sort of complacency that leads to military disasters. History books are full of such lessons.

History books are also filled with disasters cased by military forces being overrated.

[kinoxi]

A good point.

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

Not complacency, since I make my living studying naval history and policy. This is a just a realistic assessment of Red China's blue water Navy ambitions.

While I don't underestimate the magnitude and threat of the ChiCom's current naval build-up (which Jeff Head has chronicled in detail over the past few years), I do question their capability of jumping straight into big time carrier/battle group ops without any prior operational experience whatsoever. Even the Japanese had to learn how to fight with carriers during the two decades before Pearl Harbor, and the U.S. Navy of course, learned the hard way during World War II.

With that said, I think that the real naval threat from the ChiComs is their submarines, one of which successfully penetrated an American carrier screen some months back as I recall. If built and deployed in mass as the ChiComs are apparently doing, then that is where the real trouble will be. Just my humble opinion...

[Sandreckoner]

"That's the sort of complacency that leads to military disasters. History books are full of such lessons."

There's nothing complacent about noting a simple fact. China does not have experience building any sort of carrier, nor in constructing an operating carrier battle group, nor does it have remotely sufficient carrier-capable aircraft, or the training for those pilots, or the overall operational umbrella. It could develop them, but it will take a very, very long time.

Meanwhile, anyone someone hears that China is building a carrier, whether it's in the media generally or on FR specifically, people run around talking as though it's going to be an American-style supercarrier and battle group.