"That's the sort of complacency that leads to military disasters. History books are full of such lessons."
There's nothing complacent about noting a simple fact. China does not have experience building any sort of carrier, nor in constructing an operating carrier battle group, nor does it have remotely sufficient carrier-capable aircraft, or the training for those pilots, or the overall operational umbrella. It could develop them, but it will take a very, very long time.
Meanwhile, anyone someone hears that China is building a carrier, whether it's in the media generally or on FR specifically, people run around talking as though it's going to be an American-style supercarrier and battle group.
Still, if it and a few of their new Russian-inspired destroyers and diesel subs park off the Spratley's, it'll be a real thorn in someone's side.