Rudy Beats Hillary – End of Story

Special to FreeRepublic ^ | 4 March 2007 | John Armor (Congressman Billybob)

[Congressman Billybob]

This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesn’t have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.

We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didn’t fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didn’t air. Here’s our conclusion:

Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.

Here’s why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the “enthusiastic support” of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.

But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives – even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.

Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats – yes, Democrats – support Guiliani, than any other Republican.

On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.

It’s happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate “owns” the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, it’s clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.

We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.

First, he didn’t lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said “we do not agree on all things.” He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, “I made a mistake.” Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.

Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.

But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated he’s not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment – in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guiliani’s victory over Hillary Clinton.

The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasn’t dressed as a woman for charity?

Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization that’s close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. It’s long since coeducational, but it retains a “drag” routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.

I can vouch for the fact that it’s darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like you’ve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) won’t amount to a hill of beans.

Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.

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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu

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[Congressman Billybob]

I have worked, as a lawyer, for a dozen independent and third-party candidates for President, since 1972. I know precisely the hoops they have to jump and the kind of money and volunteer staff they must raise, to run anything other than a symbolic campaign.

It is simply too late for any such effort to amount to a hill of beans in 2008. What Teddy Roosevelt did in 1912, and LaFollette did in 1924, is impossible today because the Republicans and Democrats have jointly written the laws to prevent such events from occurring.

A billionaire, with high name recognition, and high favorables, right now, could possibly do it. But any ordinary candidate, starting next February (when the R and D nominees will probably be known) will have NO LEGAL CHANCE to mount a consequential third-party effort.

Running for President is not like a Mickey Rooney movie, "Hey, kids, let's put on a show!" and in the next scene they have sets, orchestra, chorus line, etc. Only one of my clients, John Anderson, ever had the remotest chance of winning any Electoral College votes. All the rest meant nothing in the outcome of the election. The same will be true this year.

John / Billybob

[scratcher]

It is simply too late for any such effort to amount to a hill of beans in 2008.

bttt 

[Beckwith]

I've been saying this for days.

I have to keep a fire extinguisher next to my laptop to keep the FLAMES from the single issue conservatives who swear they will sit out if Rudy is nominated under control.

[JohnnyZ]

This is not an opinion/preference column.

Ahhh... looks like one to me. You offer your opinion and imply your preference.

And talk about cross-dressing.

[karnage]

If you do a little research, you'll find Congressman Billybob has been on FR a long time, and always has insightful things to say.

[karnage]

Although like many on FR, I disagree with Giuliani on many important issues, I like him. I read his book on leadership, which impressed me, and I liked the way he handled the hostile NYC media. I think he understands the WOT and would make a good president.

What I liked most about your column was the insight that Giuliani could attract crossover votes on a significant scale. I live and work in *gasp* Hollywood, and one of the very few things upon which I agree with my liberal colleagues is willingness to consider Giuliani.