Posted on 03/05/2007 6:45:59 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesn’t have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.
We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didn’t fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didn’t air. Here’s our conclusion:
Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.
Here’s why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the “enthusiastic support” of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.
But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives – even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.
Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats – yes, Democrats – support Guiliani, than any other Republican.
On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.
It’s happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate “owns” the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, it’s clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.
We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.
First, he didn’t lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said “we do not agree on all things.” He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, “I made a mistake.” Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.
Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.
But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated he’s not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment – in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guiliani’s victory over Hillary Clinton.
The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasn’t dressed as a woman for charity?
Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization that’s close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. It’s long since coeducational, but it retains a “drag” routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.
I can vouch for the fact that it’s darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like you’ve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) won’t amount to a hill of beans.
Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.
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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu
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Sorry, billybob. I do not drink no rudy-aid. If he is our best hope, we are lost.
The crossdressing,,implying Rudi is a cross dresser. A weak little slam.
Et tu, Brute?
I believe however that only Romney or Rudy can win.
I don't think Rudy will survive the scrutiny; Romney will coast to the WH.
That is NOT what he said.
He said Giuliani would nominate someone LIKE JRB.
Then why don't we just wait until California farts to know which way the wind is blowing?
I didn't imply any scuh thing, what I said was he will no doubt get the cross dresser vote. I think this is true becasue he supports gay rights which I do not.
It is something that requires treatment.
A liberal beaten by liberal light. WOW!
It is something that requires treatment.
As in they are mentally ill.
Rudy is right tasty as his numbers show.
He's also working his butt off campaigning: Carolinas, Missouri, California, Georgia, Iowa, etc. He sold the bank he owns in order to be more involved in his campaign. He's raising cash in what seems like sufficient quantities (100 million) to complete the primary contest.
Rudy's competitors are deficient: McCain has tanked, Mitt's not getting real traction in the polls, the fund-raising and the press. Gingrich is unelectable, despite his popularity with socons. Hunter who? and the rest of the B-ticket have had all their oxygen sucked away by the front runners.
Popular (centrist) appeal is necessary to win this particular election. Rudy has that in spades.
If he supports gay rights then he's got the Catholic clergy vote.
ahhhh...the Raspberry Rooty Refresher...the drink that will silence the guns, silence the unborn and quietly open the botder. "A Drink Any RINO Would Enjoy."
"I should not pick someone becasue I think they can beat someone else, but pick them based on what they will do for our country."
Damn straight!
You're willing to let the Dems raise our taxes, implement universal health care, stop all school choice, implement Kyoto, give France a veto over American security, put the Gitmo terrorists back into circulation, repeal the Patriot Act, defund the military, push through job-killing protectionism, create legislation to let unions bully honest businesses, let Iraq become a terrorist state, let Iran obtain nuclear bombs to use against the West-- and instead of appointing originalist judges who may overturn crap like affirmative action and Roe v Wade -- you'll get ACLU judges pushing liberalism from the bench. Rudy stood up to anti-Christian art in New York City when there was no political benefit to doing so-- he is less liberal than people give him credit for.
Here's why the "conservatives" here so angry -- they are not really conservatives. Rather than return power to the states, they want to use the federal government to push their own agenda on social issues. And given Hillary's military and economic agenda doesn't scare the crap out of them, I can't decide whether to call them TheoCons or TheoCoMs. But they are morons to be sure.
The Rudybot campaign on this website has been instructive to me, I have been amazed of how many have shown thier true colors. The bottom line is to be done with the social conservatives. We are to shut up and go away, we really don't want your vote, unless you shut up.
Yup, him too.
botder=border
"If he supports gay rights then he's got the Catholic clergy vote."
LMAOWROTF.
Your are however correct. I just wish if someone is Gay that they go to the party that supports them, Democrats, and if they have some Conservative values they then transform that party, not this one.
I'll bookmark your article in case you don't. :0)
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