China fury at Chen's Taiwan call

BBC ^ | Monday, March 5, 2007

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Mr Chen set out a "four wants" policy for Taiwanese independence

China has hit out at Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian after he made a strongly pro-independence speech on Sunday.

Mr Chen said Taiwan should pursue independence, write a new constitution and change its official name from "Republic of China" to Taiwan.

China's Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing said anyone wanting to split Taiwan from the mainland was a "criminal".

The row came as China opened its annual session of parliament and announced a hike in defence spending.

Mr Chen, in a speech to a pro-independence group on Sunday, said: "Taiwan should be independent".

"Taiwan is a country whose sovereignty lies outside the People's Republic of China," he added, referring to China by its formal name.

TAIWAN-CHINA RELATIONS Ruled by separate governments since end of Chinese civil war in 1949 China considers the island part of its territory China has offered a "one country, two systems" solution, like Hong Kong Most people in Taiwan support status quo Guide to Taiwan flashpoint

He spoke of a "four wants" policy - namely independence, a new constitution, further development and a change to the country's officially designated name.

Since taking office, President Chen has sought to emphasise the island's separate identity, the BBC's Caroline Gluck in Taipei says.

But his latest comments are his strongest since taking office and raise new worries of increased tensions with China as well as Taiwan's main ally, the US, our correspondent adds.

Those fears contributed to falls on Taiwan's stock market on Monday and a weakening of the Taiwan dollar against the US dollar.

Opposition leaders accused him of being irresponsible and putting Taiwan at risk of a possible war with China.

China sees Taiwan as part of its territory and has threatened to use force if the island ever moved to declare formal independence.

The United States is committed to supplying Taiwan with defensive weapons, but opposes any Taiwanese provocation of China.

In response to Mr Chen's comments, China's Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing told Taiwanese reporters in Beijing: "Don't listen to local leaders".

"Whoever wants to split away will become a criminal in history".

Military growth

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reaffirmed his government's view on Taiwanese independence in a speech to the opening session of the National People's Congress.

PARLIAMENTARY AGENDA Draft laws on tax and property New motions aimed at tackling government corruption School fee exemptions for some areas Macro-economic controls How China is governed Wen calls for fairer growth

He offered to resume talks with Taiwan but insisted the island must first accept the one-China principle.

"We firmly believe that with the efforts of all Chinese people, including our Taiwan compatriots, complete reunification of China will definitely be realised," he told delegates.

Mr Wen also used his two-hour opening address - in which he called for more sustainable economic growth - to confirm China's plans to strengthen its armed forces.

Amid increasing international concern at the country's expanding military, China on Sunday announced a 17% increase in the defence budget for 2007.

Taiwan's defence ministry warned that the move not only upset the military balance across the Taiwan Strait, but also increases "the potential for a disruption to peace and stability in Asia".

[WestVirginiaRebel]

I guess this explains Mini-Me's visit from Grand Master Hu.

[Lurker]

Raise your hand if you didn't see this one coming.

L

[Steel Wolf]

Hold onto your hats, folks. In terms of Asian politics, Chen just announced his intention to declare war on the People's Republic of China. Beijing absolutely cannot let this slide. If Taiwan is able to prove the mainland goverment incompetent and impotent by this visible display of defiance, the mainland goverment won't last another 5 years.

Right now, the internal senior political landscape is beginning a Jekyl and Hyde transformation. That 17% defense spending increase (and think about that for a minute) is just the tip of the iceberg. What's going on under the surface right now is considerably worse.

[Steel Wolf]

I guess this explains Mini-Me's visit from Grand Master Hu.

There's one of two options. The first is that Chen mentioned to no one that he was going to do this, and the timing of that meeting is coincidental. Or symbolic, in that it shows Kim Jong Il isn't the only madman with a powerful ally. ;-)

The second, more ominious one, is that Chen tipped his hand to the U.S. and China. That would explain how China had a meeting with Kim and a 17% defense expenditure increase already on hand. It also minimizes the risk of China being spooked into doing something hasty.

Of course, if he tipped off China, then he almost certainly tipped us off too. I wonder what wheels are spinning in Washington right now? And in the Pentagon.

[listenhillary]

Good timing. I guess there really isn't any good time.

If China attacks Taiwan to subdue them, will they still be on our favored nations trading list? A sensible person wouldn't need to ask that question. I guess that tells you where we are as a nation.

We will stand for freedom and liberty.(If it's not too hard.)

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Chen's been pretty clear that he supports independence for Taiwan. Indeed, that is one of his [political group]'s main platforms.

However, since becoming president, he has toned down his rhetoric--so this is a bit out of the norm.

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

If Taiwan formally makes a move toward independence in the near future, it could happen during or in the run-up to the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. The Chinese seem to be very conscious about global opinion, at least moreso than Americans. Having Taiwan try to secede and then their trying to subjugate the island during or close to the Olympics could cause them to lose face--to a larger extent than they would if it happened at another time. Thus, for Taiwan, that could be one of the safest times for them to secede, though might need recognition from powerful countries such as the United States very fast if they are to hold their official independence.

[listenhillary]

Good point regarding the timing with the Olympics. It makes any move by China amplified by the increasing attention it is drawing with the Olympics.

It would be embarrassing if only the dictators and authoritarian governments showed up.

[Steel Wolf]

Good timing. I guess there really isn't any good time.

If you have to do it, there's a number of good reasons to do it now.

For one thing, China is not quite ready. The Olympics are still looming, their military isn't quite ready, and the economy would suffer horribly under a war. Calling their bluff may incur a painful loss of face, but it also may work. The PRC goverment, now that this day has come, may come to calculate that Taiwan may be good rhetoric, but not worth the price. They may not really be willing to throw it all away over Taiwan.

For another, the U.S. Navy is somewhat more mobilized that usual to deal with the Iranian threat. So is President Bush, insofar as his interest in dealing with threats outside of Iraq. His attention can be won. If we enter some conflict with Iran, the odds for us intervening in yet another fight drop dramatically. I somehow suspect that President Bush wasn't totally in the dark over this, either, and that some high level poker is being played right now.

And Taiwan itself? Well, the status quo can't last forever. The mainland is getting richer and stronger by the day. One day, it will be enough to defeat Taiwan. With that defeat comes the end of freedom. The original strategy of peacefully waiting for the PRC's goverment to collapse, Soviet Union style, is clearly a longshot at this point.

I don't care for Chen, I think he's a clown. But, as far as strategies go, it's a decent risk to save Taiwan from what was starting to look inevitible.

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

That would be embarassing. Probably won't happen though. As you've pointed out in comment 6, the United States is sort of wishy-washy when it comes to the PRC.

[Steel Wolf]

If Taiwan formally makes a move toward independence in the near future, it could happen during or in the run-up to the 2008 Olympics in Beijing.

I think that you sum up the situation pretty well in post 8. Yesterday's announcement puts China on notice. If they want Taiwan, they're going to have to accept that Taiwan can cost them a lot. China's global reputation will be in the toliet if the Olympics are cancelled or only partially attended over this. It will be a staggering blow to Chinese pride.

It also puts the warning out to the world, that China is at a crossroads. Either they take the responsible, peaceful global citizen path, or the hardline Communist warpath. One of those paths is good for business. If China acts too aggressively, it will scare off foreign investors. That will have repercussions through the Chinese economy and political landscape.

So, it's essentially a wake up call for China. It's one thing to be an aggressive lunatic when you're poor and you don't care what the neighbors think. It's another where you're trying to look respectable in polite society, and you have something to lose.

[StoneWall Brigade]

I always thought that China would wait till after the summer games are over with and then go to war

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

New related thread:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1795414/posts.

[Pete from Shawnee Mission]

Next they will claim that the West Coast is Chinese by right of discovery. Better to make a stand in Taiwan.

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

1453 (date?) was an interesting book, although some of the stuff was iffy.

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Another related thread:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1795084/posts.

[Pete from Shawnee Mission]

About the Chinese admiral that led an armada to Africa and the American west coast? I saw some PBS Show on it. (PBS revels in any show that denigrates a Euro-centric historical viewpoint.)

I could see the Chinese getting to the west coast. But we all know that the Vikings made it here first. Of course, maybe the Basques were first, maybe St Brendan the Irish Saint, maybe the some Siberians, who knows. I think that there is a good amount of modern arrogance that looks at pre-modern man and minimizes their abilities and accomplishments.

[Sender]

Do we really have enough leverage against the PRC to take them off MFN status or impose other sanctions? Doesn't the PRC hold our financial cojones right now?

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Newer related thread:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1795863/posts?page=1.