The Chinese Navy (PLAN) is Transforming the VARYAG into an operational aircraft carrier

The Rising Sea Dragin in Asia Web Site ^ | March 3, 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

HISTORY-TRANSFORMATION
In 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved, the second full-size aircraft carrier for the Soviet Union, the Varyag-sister ship to the Kuznetsov, was under construction in the Ukraine. Withe the Soviet demise, the Ukraine inherited the incomplete vessel but did not have the finances to complete her. In 1992 a Chinese delegation visited the Ukraine in the hopes of coming to terms on a purchase price of the unfinished vessel. A suitable purchase price was not agreed upon. Later, in 1998, the Chong Lot Travel Agency, a supposed Maccu firm, bought the Varyag from the Ukraine for $20 million dollars with the stated intention of making the Varyag a casino for commercial profit. As it turned out, Chong Lot had no offices in Maccu and was simply a front company for a Hong Kong firm called Chinluck Holding Co. Ltd. As it also turned out, the managing directors of Chinluck, had strong ties to the Chinese navy. It took three years for the front firm, Chong Lot Travel, to get permission to tow the Varyag through the Istanbul Straits and on to China. That permission was finally granted in 2001 and the following pictures document what has occurred to the Varyag since.

The Ukrainian Carrier Varyag in Ukraine Naval Yards, approximately 70% complete, prior to being towed away by Chong Lot Travel Agency.

The Chong Lot Travel Agency tows their newly purchased and rusting Varyag through the Istanbul Straits in late 2001.

The Varyag arrives in China at the end of its long voyage and is docked in the Chinese Naval shipyards at Dalian and in 2003
work begins on the vessel. In this time frame, not surprisingly, Chong Lot goes out of business.

Work continues on the Varyag in the Dalian naval shipyards throughout 2004, with several large cranes participating.

The Vayag spends several months of very expensive time in dry dock in the Dalian naval shipyards in 2005.

The Varyag emerges from dry dock painted in official Chinese Navy colors and the work of refitting her continues.

More painting and refit work contiues on the Varyag, now in official PLAN colors in 2005 and with flags flying for a VIP visit.

A Zinc Chromate primer is applied to the main deck in 2006 in Dalian. This is a primer for a non-skid surface to keep aircrafft from skidding off
of a carrier's main deck. Note the large storage and logistics facilities that have been constructed dockside to the right and behind the carrier.

The Zinc Chromate primer is covered over in 2006 in the Dalian naval shipyards.

The final non-skid surface appears to have been added to the Varyag's main deck in late 2006.

Varyag looking very trim and squared away in late 2006 at Dalian naval shipyards..

The forward portion of the Varyag in early 2007 in Dalian. The hull and flight deck seem to be nearing completion.

AIRCRAFT
In October of 2006, the Kommersant online newspaper in Moscow announced a deal between Russia and China where the Russians sell up to 50 Su-33 fighters to China for $2.5 billion. Details seem to indicate that China will spend $100 million to buy two Su-33 fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur Production Association for evaluation, with delivery expected in 2007. There appears to also be a fairly firm option for 12 more Su-33 fighters, with the potential for the deal to add another 36 SU-33s. In that event, the deal would total the $2.5 billion. The SU-33 fighter is the navalized version of the SU-27 fighter that China has purchased in large numbers from the Russians and now license builds themselves. It is the same fighter that the Russians use on their carrier, the Kuznetsov, which is the older sister ship to the Varyag. In addition, over the last two years, the Chinese have been negotiating with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter, which is the helicopter the Russians use on their carrier for AEW duties. The Chinese have also introduced designs for prop-driven AEW aircraft of their own similar to the United States E-2 Hawkeye aircraft. The continuing efforts by the PLAN to obtain navalized, carrier fighters and AEW aircraft from Russia (or design their own), coupled with the recent completion of a non-skid surface on the flight deck of the Varyag, and its painting in official PLAN colors, make it abudnantly clear that this vessel, at some future date, will be China's first aircraft carrier.

In 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians to purchase SU-33 naval fighters for carrier operations, receiving special demonstations at Moscow and Chinese military airshows.

Throughout 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter which is used for early warning (AEW) purposes, the same AEW helo the Russins use on their carrier.

ESCORTS
WHile all of this has been occuring, the PLAN has embarked on a phenominal naval ship building and modernization program, simultaneously working on ten to twelve new classes of major combatants and building several of each at one time. This program has already developed and launched all of the necessary modern classes of guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, attack submarines, and supply ships to form the basis for a very powerful carrier strike group once a carrier is available...and to defend and supply it in the blue water, as the following pictures attest.

Two new modern, AEGIS-like area air defense destroyers for the PLAN, equiped with VLS and PAR. These ships would be very capable as escorts for a carrier.

Two of four modern and very powerful Russian destroyers built for the PLAN, specifically designed to hunt super-carriers.

Two new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile destroyers suitable for carrier escort duties and capable in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

Two of six new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile frigates with VLS AAW and suitable for carrier escort duties in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

PLAN nuclear attack submarines, older HAN class (5) and two of the new Type-093 class capable of escoprt duties for a PLAN carrier.

The new class large at sea replenishment ships for the PLAN, capable of replenishing a PLAN carrier strike group.

CONCLUSIONS
It is this author's and researcher's opinion that the Chinese Navy (PLAN) will launch the Varyag in the 2008-2010 time frame and begin trials and training for her use as an operational aircraft carrier with a wing of SU-33 aircraft, perhaps modernized with vectored thrust and strike at sea and ground attack capabilities in addition to its already significant air superiority capabilites. Furthermore, this air wing will be supported by KA-31 AEW helos operating off the carrier in conjunction with other ASW and SAR helicopters. This training will be ongoing for several years as the PLAN gains experience in carrier operations, and will prepare them for the introduction of one or more of their own indigenous carrier later in the 2010 decade, which will include Chinese indigenous navalized aircraft and their own, more capable AEW and EW aircraft.

Jeff Head is an engineering consultant with many years experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently works for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and is also the author of a self-published and best-selling series of military techno-thrillers called the Dragon's Fury that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events. You can learn more about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES

Copyright © 2007 by Jeff Head

AVAILABLE AS A FREE ADOBE EBOOK DOWNLOAD TO ALL FREEPERS ---> HERE

[Jeff Head]

You of course are correct, the actual date was Christmas Day 1991 I believe. Thatt's already been fixed on the site...and I will try and get the mods to fix it here. Thanks.

[Jeff Head]

Agreed...that is probably the most likely thing in a shooting war, particularly since on defense, the PLAN is weakest in ASW.

...and two MK-48s would certainly do it

[CarrotAndStick]

By Invitation.

[Colonel Jerry USMC ret.]

Presently China has a coastal navy and not a very well-organized one. It is no secret that they want to expand to a Blue Water force of some size and capability. Such is a MASSIVE undertaking for a nation whose last experiences were big wooden junks sailing to Africa and back by eunuchs.

You do not sail a carrier battle group into the oceans without years of training, and I estimate 10 years, starting from scratch! Reason: A carrier battle group has to operate in all conditions where every able seaman, petty officer, officer up to and including the Admirals performs as a "Single Organism"! That does not happen easily and it can expire very soon without constant training and operations.

This carrier is small, real small like an escort carrier. It cannot put many jets up in a short time and recover them. The jets are not fuel sufficient for long range at sea interdiction. That means turning into the wind for traps often. Where do the aerial refuelers come from?

This carrier battle group against say, the USS Reagan carrier group would be outclassed in just about any specialty you could think of. AND it is only one against about 12 of our groups.

I could go on but won`t. Yes, it will be a strategic factor to consider and plan for but it is a long way off and the US Navy doesn`t ever stand still, rather we keep improving our lethality as rapidly as we can.

As my grandma used to say, "Oil ain`t oil til it`s in the barrel...."

Semper Fi,

[GreyFriar]

Looks like the ChiComs are going for a blue water navy in competition to us. And there weren't anymore enemies after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

[Jeff Head]

Actually, this carrier, like the Kuznetsov, is second in size and displacement and aircraft carrying capability only to the US supercarriers. Full load is 67,500 tons.

The French nuclear carrier, by comparison is only in the 40,000 ton category. That said, because the French operate a true catapault take-off and arrested landing system, they are able to launch more aircraft quicker, and with better war loads than these types of ski-jump take off arrangments allow.

The new UK carriers (which are several years off yet) will be 65,000 tons.

Nonetheless, the group the chinese are putting together is nothing to be scoffee at or underestimated. My guess is that by 2020 they are likely to have three full deck carriers operating at the rate they are going. We will probably be down to ten in that same time period.

But, in the confined spaces of the China Sea, or in the local waters of the Western Pacific, where such a conflict is likely to take place, they will still represent a significant threat.

That is why the Japanese are beefing up as are the South Koreans...and the INdians for that matter. Given our own clear strengths, it still should be a slam dunk...but everyone knew that ultimately in the Pacific in World War II it was going to be a slam dunk too and that did not stop a very costly war from being fought.

[SauronOfMordor]

unsinkable aircraft carrier Taiwan

It may be unsinkable, but the exact locations of military airfields and installations are known to the Chinese. Which means that any attack will be initiated with missile attacks on those locations. The advantage of the floating aircraft carrier is that it's hard to know exactly where it is

The big question: if an attack on Taiwan is initiated by tactical nukes (either missile or cruise missile) against their military installations, what is the probability that a Dem administration will launch a nuke strike against China? IMHO, very low, especially if facing an enemy with the ability to hit the West Coast (at minimum) with their own missiles

[Jeff Head]

That was one of the great miscalculation IMHO...if it indeed was a miscalculation.

The chinese economy (which we are helping along the way to self sufficency) and their methodical approach to this have every chance of turning into a major arms race and stand off between to vastly different ideological competitiors and foes. Best, if we still can, to cut off the funding from our side and live with the pain of weening ourselves from them until their governmental system changes. That will be far less costly and painful than a major war with them if it comes to that.

[Jeff Head]

I have another site devoted to the Carriers of the world...here's a link to a nice comparison of some of the major classes in operation today from that site:

Worldwideaircraftcarriers.com Carrier comparison.

[SauronOfMordor]

This carrier is small, real small like an escort carrier. It cannot put many jets up in a short time and recover them. The jets are not fuel sufficient for long range at sea interdiction. That means turning into the wind for traps often. Where do the aerial refuelers come from?

They might be useful to extend the reach of China a bit further into the ocean. Launch carrier-capable planes from land, have them hit targets outside their round-trip range, and land on the carrier for fueling and re-arming.

How many aircraft could that carrier keep in the air if they were not initially based on the carrier?

[Yo-Yo]

Ah, thank you. I see the angled deck now from the drydock photo, but it was hard to visualize for me without the deck markings.

[SauronOfMordor]

Where do the aerial refuelers come from?

We're currently making modified Boeing 767's into refuelers. Airbus is looking for markets for its superjumbo. Think they would turn down a big order from China to produce a tanker version? How much fuel could that Airbus superjumbo carry?

[SauronOfMordor]

Over here we have an article about the competition for the US refueler contract. Boeing is competing against Northrop Grumman Corp., which is expected to offer its KC-30, a modified Airbus A330, at a discounted price. If Grumman loses the contract, Airbus might decide to buy the designs and tooling to produce refuelers for European militaries. Then later, they can sell to China

[RedsHunter]

No official name yet...but many believe that the name will be the Shi Lang.

According to Wikipedia, that "Shi Lang" guy had an interesting record of accomplishments. (Emphasis mine.)

"Shi Lang (Chinese: 施琅; 1621-1696) was a Ming-Qing admiral who had extensive experience in southeastern China. He was commander-in-chief of the Manchu fleets which destroyed the power of the Zheng family and conquered Taiwan in 1681."

[staytrue]

Large Capital Ships soon will be out of date. Dinosaurs waiting to die en masse.

I don't think so. The carrier battle group is a valuable asset. Mainly the carrier battle group is and will remain invincible to all but 10-15 countries. That is the US fleet (or chinese) should be able to attack and/or intimidate every country in the world except for 10-12 and that makes them very valuable.

[Seaplaner]

I would have guessed it will be named the Clin Tong.

[Oztrich Boy]

If Grumman loses the contract, Airbus might decide to buy the designs and tooling to produce refuelers for European militaries.

Actually it's Northrop-Grumman who bought the designs of the A330-200 MRTT

[SauronOfMordor]

I just had a thought. What about a combination of a carrier and multiple Airbus-based aerial refuelers? Planes could take off from the carriers with max ordinance load and minimum fuel, fuel up in the air, and continue to their target, going back to the carrier only for more ordinance

[kingpost]

How many infantry battalions could be transported in this rusting hulk?

Could an old aircraft carrier be converted easily into a troop carrier that is almost impossible to sink?

If you needed to get a large number of troops onto the shores of Taiwan, how would you do it?

I dont know, I'm just asking.

[uglybiker]

I would have guessed it will be named the Clin Tong.

If they ain't careful, it's name will be Sunk Junk.