The Chinese Navy (PLAN) is Transforming the VARYAG into an operational aircraft carrier

The Rising Sea Dragin in Asia Web Site ^ | March 3, 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

HISTORY-TRANSFORMATION
In 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved, the second full-size aircraft carrier for the Soviet Union, the Varyag-sister ship to the Kuznetsov, was under construction in the Ukraine. Withe the Soviet demise, the Ukraine inherited the incomplete vessel but did not have the finances to complete her. In 1992 a Chinese delegation visited the Ukraine in the hopes of coming to terms on a purchase price of the unfinished vessel. A suitable purchase price was not agreed upon. Later, in 1998, the Chong Lot Travel Agency, a supposed Maccu firm, bought the Varyag from the Ukraine for $20 million dollars with the stated intention of making the Varyag a casino for commercial profit. As it turned out, Chong Lot had no offices in Maccu and was simply a front company for a Hong Kong firm called Chinluck Holding Co. Ltd. As it also turned out, the managing directors of Chinluck, had strong ties to the Chinese navy. It took three years for the front firm, Chong Lot Travel, to get permission to tow the Varyag through the Istanbul Straits and on to China. That permission was finally granted in 2001 and the following pictures document what has occurred to the Varyag since.

The Ukrainian Carrier Varyag in Ukraine Naval Yards, approximately 70% complete, prior to being towed away by Chong Lot Travel Agency.

The Chong Lot Travel Agency tows their newly purchased and rusting Varyag through the Istanbul Straits in late 2001.

The Varyag arrives in China at the end of its long voyage and is docked in the Chinese Naval shipyards at Dalian and in 2003
work begins on the vessel. In this time frame, not surprisingly, Chong Lot goes out of business.

Work continues on the Varyag in the Dalian naval shipyards throughout 2004, with several large cranes participating.

The Vayag spends several months of very expensive time in dry dock in the Dalian naval shipyards in 2005.

The Varyag emerges from dry dock painted in official Chinese Navy colors and the work of refitting her continues.

More painting and refit work contiues on the Varyag, now in official PLAN colors in 2005 and with flags flying for a VIP visit.

A Zinc Chromate primer is applied to the main deck in 2006 in Dalian. This is a primer for a non-skid surface to keep aircrafft from skidding off
of a carrier's main deck. Note the large storage and logistics facilities that have been constructed dockside to the right and behind the carrier.

The Zinc Chromate primer is covered over in 2006 in the Dalian naval shipyards.

The final non-skid surface appears to have been added to the Varyag's main deck in late 2006.

Varyag looking very trim and squared away in late 2006 at Dalian naval shipyards..

The forward portion of the Varyag in early 2007 in Dalian. The hull and flight deck seem to be nearing completion.

AIRCRAFT
In October of 2006, the Kommersant online newspaper in Moscow announced a deal between Russia and China where the Russians sell up to 50 Su-33 fighters to China for $2.5 billion. Details seem to indicate that China will spend $100 million to buy two Su-33 fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur Production Association for evaluation, with delivery expected in 2007. There appears to also be a fairly firm option for 12 more Su-33 fighters, with the potential for the deal to add another 36 SU-33s. In that event, the deal would total the $2.5 billion. The SU-33 fighter is the navalized version of the SU-27 fighter that China has purchased in large numbers from the Russians and now license builds themselves. It is the same fighter that the Russians use on their carrier, the Kuznetsov, which is the older sister ship to the Varyag. In addition, over the last two years, the Chinese have been negotiating with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter, which is the helicopter the Russians use on their carrier for AEW duties. The Chinese have also introduced designs for prop-driven AEW aircraft of their own similar to the United States E-2 Hawkeye aircraft. The continuing efforts by the PLAN to obtain navalized, carrier fighters and AEW aircraft from Russia (or design their own), coupled with the recent completion of a non-skid surface on the flight deck of the Varyag, and its painting in official PLAN colors, make it abudnantly clear that this vessel, at some future date, will be China's first aircraft carrier.

In 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians to purchase SU-33 naval fighters for carrier operations, receiving special demonstations at Moscow and Chinese military airshows.

Throughout 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter which is used for early warning (AEW) purposes, the same AEW helo the Russins use on their carrier.

ESCORTS
WHile all of this has been occuring, the PLAN has embarked on a phenominal naval ship building and modernization program, simultaneously working on ten to twelve new classes of major combatants and building several of each at one time. This program has already developed and launched all of the necessary modern classes of guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, attack submarines, and supply ships to form the basis for a very powerful carrier strike group once a carrier is available...and to defend and supply it in the blue water, as the following pictures attest.

Two new modern, AEGIS-like area air defense destroyers for the PLAN, equiped with VLS and PAR. These ships would be very capable as escorts for a carrier.

Two of four modern and very powerful Russian destroyers built for the PLAN, specifically designed to hunt super-carriers.

Two new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile destroyers suitable for carrier escort duties and capable in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

Two of six new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile frigates with VLS AAW and suitable for carrier escort duties in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

PLAN nuclear attack submarines, older HAN class (5) and two of the new Type-093 class capable of escoprt duties for a PLAN carrier.

The new class large at sea replenishment ships for the PLAN, capable of replenishing a PLAN carrier strike group.

CONCLUSIONS
It is this author's and researcher's opinion that the Chinese Navy (PLAN) will launch the Varyag in the 2008-2010 time frame and begin trials and training for her use as an operational aircraft carrier with a wing of SU-33 aircraft, perhaps modernized with vectored thrust and strike at sea and ground attack capabilities in addition to its already significant air superiority capabilites. Furthermore, this air wing will be supported by KA-31 AEW helos operating off the carrier in conjunction with other ASW and SAR helicopters. This training will be ongoing for several years as the PLAN gains experience in carrier operations, and will prepare them for the introduction of one or more of their own indigenous carrier later in the 2010 decade, which will include Chinese indigenous navalized aircraft and their own, more capable AEW and EW aircraft.

Jeff Head is an engineering consultant with many years experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently works for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and is also the author of a self-published and best-selling series of military techno-thrillers called the Dragon's Fury that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events. You can learn more about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES

Copyright © 2007 by Jeff Head

AVAILABLE AS A FREE ADOBE EBOOK DOWNLOAD TO ALL FREEPERS ---> HERE

[Pilsner]

I doubt the Chinese have any intention of using this one, small, aircraft carrier against the U.S. Navy. It will however give them experience is the very difficult and complex business of setting up and carrying out carrier operations. The will surely build on that experience.

China is also buying interests in oil and mineral reserves all over the world. I expect that by 2012 or so, any African kleptocrat, who has thoughts of nationalizing a few billion dollars worth of Chinese investments in his country, can expect to see this carrier conducting maneuvers off his coastline.

[Jeff Head]

It will however give them experience is the very difficult and complex business of setting up and carrying out carrier operations. The will surely build on that experience.

Amen. In any conflict, the Varyag will be held as far away as possible, probably in port, and very well protected. We may get her anyway in such a confrontation just for good measure. In fact, I believe we should if it came to that.

China is also buying interests in oil and mineral reserves all over the world. I expect that by 2012 or so, any African kleptocrat, who has thoughts of nationalizing a few billion dollars worth of Chinese investments in his country, can expect to see this carrier conducting maneuvers off his coastline.

Again, agreed...and elsewhere they want to "show the flag". Pakistan, Iran, Venezuela, Panama, etc. By 2012 I expect they will have a second carrier being launched, and an indigenous one at that.

[thinking]

I can see that you have put plenty of effort into this, well done....

With high powered carrier based A/C, the fuel consumption is so high that it almost renders the aircraft useless beyond a range of a 100 miles or so, and eliminates any tactical maneuvers, so, I guess that is why the Russians follow that doctrine...a big noise equals big fuel consumption, without airborne tankers, they would have a problem....hello Beijing, you copy???

[Yo-Yo]

Wow! It must be only very lightly armed and fueled aircraft that can take off from those two spots:


Look at where this aircraft is taking off from, especially note the white and yellow lines, and helo pad "6":


It appears that Helo pad "6" is two circles behind the lead helo in this pic:


That would be the only spot where you could launch a heavily loaded aircraft and have enough roll to get up to airspeed. That launch position also happens to be right in the middle of the recovery deck, so you can't launch and recover simultaneously.

Also, what aircraft is that "U-2" looking one at the rear of the Island, behind the four folded wing Su-33s?

[Jeff Head]

I believe the Russians have perfected the use of buddy stores, as have we. Our A-6 and S-3 tankers are no longer on the carries...and the S-3 ASW mission is long gone too. Only helos off the carriers and her escorts for airborne ASW now.

[Jeff Head]

The Russians have several small observation aircraft and training aircraft they use. Also, their fighters are always armed with AAW missiles, I do not believe they even practise or train on any strike missions. The SU-33s they use may not even have the capability for targeting surface targets or carrying the ordinance.

The Chinese however seem to be negotiating for upgraded SU-33s from the Russians with thrust vectoring and with SU-30 weapons aviaonics, which would add the strike capability.

They would be limited and they would have to refuel upon takeoff...and, they would not be able to conduct launch and recovery simultaneously, just as you have noted. A significant disadvantage when compared to us, but not when compared to just about any other regional power that they would likely contend with outside of the US Navy.

[Little Ray]

Have they put in the powerplant yet? If not all the rest is just decorative...

[Jeff Head]

Unknown. But given the work that has been completed on the main deck more recently, I personally believe it went in either just prior to or during ther long stint it had in dry dock in 2005.

[Tommyjo]

Correct. That is why my post said 'as of yet'.

[Yo-Yo]

Ah, Thank you. The "mystery" aircraft appears to be an Su-25 Frogfoot.

[Tommyjo]

That 'U-2' is an Su-25UTG Frogfoot. This is a Russian Navy trainer aircraft.

[Yo-Yo]

How ironic, we both posted a pic of aircraft "08."

[GOP_1900AD]

The red superstructure is quite striking.

RE: Zinc chromate - at today's prices, you don't paint on that may square feet of it unless you are completely serious.

[GOP_1900AD]

Ruskis have used a variant of this as an attack aircraft, particularly in Chechnya.

[Jeff Head]

Exactly. The SU-25 was an attack aircraft with the Soviet airforce that was originally planned to be converted to be a strike aircraft to operate off the Kuznetsov. I do not believe it could carry enough ordinance or had the range so it has been relegated to a trainer. I believe they have only converted 3 or 4 of the old SU-25 attack aircraft to naval use.

[Jeff Head]

I only think they have 3 or 4 of these aircraft, so the chances are pretty good you would see the same one on the deck fairly often.

[Jeff Head]

The red primer they used is to paint over and treat surfaces that have been somewhat corroded and then repaired, prior to giving them final coats.

And, regarding the zinc chromate...agree 100%. It was a reltively sure sign of the PLAN's intent with the Varyag.

[WLR]

Things going from Bad to worse...

If there is anyway this can be posted or you all can read the article it is worth taking the time to sign up and reading it. But don't expect to be happy when you do.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/04/AR2007030401049.html

Washington Post
March 5, 2007
Pg. 15
Going Down With The Ships


Over the past six years, 79 condemned Navy ships have been towed out to sea and destroyed by Air Force bombs, submarine-launched torpedoes or hails of gunfire. These exercises, long considered the most cost-effective way to dispose of unwanted naval vessels, have eaten away at America's inventory of still-useful retired warships. Soon every vessel capable of serving in America's reserve combat fleet could vanish, leaving an overextended Navy with no viable backup forces. This unwise drawdown goes against Navy tradition

[mad_as_he$$]

IMHO we have something better and I believe it was tested on the America. I'm not telling tales out of school. The testing of a new anti-ship weapon on the America is being discussed all over the world. Of course a nuke underwater is alway an option (if we could find a leader that had the balls to use one).

[Jeff Head]

I have no doubts that we have something better. How many and what stage of production I do not know. However, in today's world, the Mk-48 would still be a decisive weapon in any naval warfare sccenario we might face.