The Chinese Navy (PLAN) is Transforming the VARYAG into an operational aircraft carrier

The Rising Sea Dragin in Asia Web Site ^ | March 3, 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

HISTORY-TRANSFORMATION
In 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved, the second full-size aircraft carrier for the Soviet Union, the Varyag-sister ship to the Kuznetsov, was under construction in the Ukraine. Withe the Soviet demise, the Ukraine inherited the incomplete vessel but did not have the finances to complete her. In 1992 a Chinese delegation visited the Ukraine in the hopes of coming to terms on a purchase price of the unfinished vessel. A suitable purchase price was not agreed upon. Later, in 1998, the Chong Lot Travel Agency, a supposed Maccu firm, bought the Varyag from the Ukraine for $20 million dollars with the stated intention of making the Varyag a casino for commercial profit. As it turned out, Chong Lot had no offices in Maccu and was simply a front company for a Hong Kong firm called Chinluck Holding Co. Ltd. As it also turned out, the managing directors of Chinluck, had strong ties to the Chinese navy. It took three years for the front firm, Chong Lot Travel, to get permission to tow the Varyag through the Istanbul Straits and on to China. That permission was finally granted in 2001 and the following pictures document what has occurred to the Varyag since.

The Ukrainian Carrier Varyag in Ukraine Naval Yards, approximately 70% complete, prior to being towed away by Chong Lot Travel Agency.

The Chong Lot Travel Agency tows their newly purchased and rusting Varyag through the Istanbul Straits in late 2001.

The Varyag arrives in China at the end of its long voyage and is docked in the Chinese Naval shipyards at Dalian and in 2003
work begins on the vessel. In this time frame, not surprisingly, Chong Lot goes out of business.

Work continues on the Varyag in the Dalian naval shipyards throughout 2004, with several large cranes participating.

The Vayag spends several months of very expensive time in dry dock in the Dalian naval shipyards in 2005.

The Varyag emerges from dry dock painted in official Chinese Navy colors and the work of refitting her continues.

More painting and refit work contiues on the Varyag, now in official PLAN colors in 2005 and with flags flying for a VIP visit.

A Zinc Chromate primer is applied to the main deck in 2006 in Dalian. This is a primer for a non-skid surface to keep aircrafft from skidding off
of a carrier's main deck. Note the large storage and logistics facilities that have been constructed dockside to the right and behind the carrier.

The Zinc Chromate primer is covered over in 2006 in the Dalian naval shipyards.

The final non-skid surface appears to have been added to the Varyag's main deck in late 2006.

Varyag looking very trim and squared away in late 2006 at Dalian naval shipyards..

The forward portion of the Varyag in early 2007 in Dalian. The hull and flight deck seem to be nearing completion.

AIRCRAFT
In October of 2006, the Kommersant online newspaper in Moscow announced a deal between Russia and China where the Russians sell up to 50 Su-33 fighters to China for $2.5 billion. Details seem to indicate that China will spend $100 million to buy two Su-33 fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur Production Association for evaluation, with delivery expected in 2007. There appears to also be a fairly firm option for 12 more Su-33 fighters, with the potential for the deal to add another 36 SU-33s. In that event, the deal would total the $2.5 billion. The SU-33 fighter is the navalized version of the SU-27 fighter that China has purchased in large numbers from the Russians and now license builds themselves. It is the same fighter that the Russians use on their carrier, the Kuznetsov, which is the older sister ship to the Varyag. In addition, over the last two years, the Chinese have been negotiating with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter, which is the helicopter the Russians use on their carrier for AEW duties. The Chinese have also introduced designs for prop-driven AEW aircraft of their own similar to the United States E-2 Hawkeye aircraft. The continuing efforts by the PLAN to obtain navalized, carrier fighters and AEW aircraft from Russia (or design their own), coupled with the recent completion of a non-skid surface on the flight deck of the Varyag, and its painting in official PLAN colors, make it abudnantly clear that this vessel, at some future date, will be China's first aircraft carrier.

In 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians to purchase SU-33 naval fighters for carrier operations, receiving special demonstations at Moscow and Chinese military airshows.

Throughout 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter which is used for early warning (AEW) purposes, the same AEW helo the Russins use on their carrier.

ESCORTS
WHile all of this has been occuring, the PLAN has embarked on a phenominal naval ship building and modernization program, simultaneously working on ten to twelve new classes of major combatants and building several of each at one time. This program has already developed and launched all of the necessary modern classes of guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, attack submarines, and supply ships to form the basis for a very powerful carrier strike group once a carrier is available...and to defend and supply it in the blue water, as the following pictures attest.

Two new modern, AEGIS-like area air defense destroyers for the PLAN, equiped with VLS and PAR. These ships would be very capable as escorts for a carrier.

Two of four modern and very powerful Russian destroyers built for the PLAN, specifically designed to hunt super-carriers.

Two new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile destroyers suitable for carrier escort duties and capable in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

Two of six new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile frigates with VLS AAW and suitable for carrier escort duties in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

PLAN nuclear attack submarines, older HAN class (5) and two of the new Type-093 class capable of escoprt duties for a PLAN carrier.

The new class large at sea replenishment ships for the PLAN, capable of replenishing a PLAN carrier strike group.

CONCLUSIONS
It is this author's and researcher's opinion that the Chinese Navy (PLAN) will launch the Varyag in the 2008-2010 time frame and begin trials and training for her use as an operational aircraft carrier with a wing of SU-33 aircraft, perhaps modernized with vectored thrust and strike at sea and ground attack capabilities in addition to its already significant air superiority capabilites. Furthermore, this air wing will be supported by KA-31 AEW helos operating off the carrier in conjunction with other ASW and SAR helicopters. This training will be ongoing for several years as the PLAN gains experience in carrier operations, and will prepare them for the introduction of one or more of their own indigenous carrier later in the 2010 decade, which will include Chinese indigenous navalized aircraft and their own, more capable AEW and EW aircraft.

Jeff Head is an engineering consultant with many years experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently works for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and is also the author of a self-published and best-selling series of military techno-thrillers called the Dragon's Fury that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events. You can learn more about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES

Copyright © 2007 by Jeff Head

AVAILABLE AS A FREE ADOBE EBOOK DOWNLOAD TO ALL FREEPERS ---> HERE

[Triple]

"And if the Chinese do want a carrier" N-S

Yea you are probably right - just a really cool floating casino.

Were you part of the crowd that thought that (casino) when the Chicoms first bought it? there were so many I've lost track

[Jeff Head]

Wanted to just respond to the last part of your comment...about the gold-plated and buying them from a Russian shipyard.

First, there are no other carriers of this class to buy...and I do not believe the Russians or the Ukranians are in a position to build one for the PRC. The Chinese bought the only one that was available...this one.

As to being gold-plated, the Chinese got a structurally sound hull for next to nothing, where all that metal had already been processed and put together. I evidence the structurally sound part by the simple fact that it made the treck, across the ocean and around the world, without breaking up or being damaged.

The design itself is a workable one as the russians have proved over the last twenty years now and so the Chinese are gaining a wealth of information on the construction and layout of such a vessel...in combination with the info they gleaned from the two Minsk class carriers they have had and the earlier Australian one. They are learning a lot and they are getting a leg up on something that only experience will ultimately allow them to operate them.

I believe they can ultimately get this carrier into operation much cheaper than having the Ukranians or russians build a new one for them...if they even would. Chinese labor is cheaper...and its a dual benefit because now it is the Chinese themselves who are gaining the experience of examining, repairing, and refitting this carrier, not someone else.

Ultimately, I have no doubt that it will lead to a class of indigenous carriers of their own that are STOBAR with cats and the whole nine yards. From my perspective and based on their own position statements and what they are doing, it is clear to me that that is their intent and it is one we cannot discount or underestimate, and should be taking measures economically top thwart (IMHO) if we can.

[zot]

Did you fly or work on fighters or attack aircraft?

I was a B-47 navigator-bombardier in Strategic Air Command. And you're right, from that point-of-view, anything on the surface can be a target. The only question is whether you have been authorized to hit it.

[Jeff Head]

Great aircraft that. Pre-cursor to the 52 and then the 58.

Thanks for your service and helping defend and preserve our liberty through very trying times with the Soviets. God bless you for that service.

[Stonewall Jackson]

Have you been to Google Earth to look at the Varyag in their satellite photos? It is really something else.

The coordinates are 38 degrees, 56 minutes, 28.94 seconds North by 121 degrees, 38 minutes, 37.86 seconds East.

[Vicomte13]

Conventional forces are very expensive and burdensome.

Nuclear weapons are cheap and terrifying.

Missile defense is very high tech, and American fingers are just beginning to clutch something that's effective. The Chinese are not there.

We have to be practical. Our economy is now only 20% of the world's, down from something like 60% at the end of World War II.

We CAN'T provide the conventional forces to take on all threats everywhere, not without doing to our own economy and people what the Soviets did to theirs.

But we CAN protect countries from being invaded, and they can protect themselves too, quite cheaply, the same way we really protected Western Europe from the USSR for decades. We never matched the Russians tank for tank and plane for plane, and we would have been insane to try. It would have dragged our whole economy and progress down into the mire.

What we did, was deploy nuclear weapons, and so did the English and French, and made it CLEAR to the Soviets that if they invaded Western Europe, it was nuclear war and the end of the world.

That is the cheap and effective way to defend against massive threats that it doesn't make sense to try and match ship-for-ship, tank-for-tank. The question is one of credibility. Did the Russians REALLY BELIEVE that the Americans would go to nuclear war to save Western Europe? The French didn't. So they built their own nuclear force. The actual probability that America would commit collective suicide with the Soviets in response to an invasion of Western Europe is unknown and unknowable, but one thing is certain, that the French (who are on the Continent and thus touchable by the Soviet Shock Armies in a way the English were not) were probably likely to lose nukes if the Russians were crossing the Rhine and surging in against France. Multiple nuclear forces in the hands of allies complicated the Soviet planning.

We should not by any means embark on a massive military buildup to try and face down the Chinese AND a renascent Russia. We don't have the economy to do it, and it's not our responsibility anyway.

No, we should be ensuring that Japan and Taiwan swiftly develop and deploy nuclear weapons and make sure that our missile defense umbrella, to the extent we can extend it, covers them, and that they are onboard with deploying their own. China can create the largest conventional navy in the world, but if it is perfectly clear that Taiwan herself will nuke China in the event of an invasion, all of that expense is for naught. If WE alone have the nuclear monopoly among allied nations, there's the REAL RISK we WON'T have a nuclear war with China over Taiwan. But Taiwan will.

The answer is to proliferate into allied countries: Japan and Taiwan should be nuclear powers in their own right, and Taiwan should make it clear that a Chinese CONVENTIONAL invasion of Taiwan will provoke the immediate response of a Taiwanese NUCLEAR war on China. That is how you eucher massive militaries.

If the Chinese want to go ahead and spend their treasure on armed forces they can't use, let them. Matching them man-for-man is impossible for anyone but India anyway, and we don't have to. Taiwan needs nuclear weapons under its own control. THAT will keep China out.

[zot]

Thank you for your blessing. I served on a B-47 aircrew from 1957 to 1964.

It was a good mission. As you know, SAC, TAC and Navy aircraft held the Soviets at bay for several years before ICBMs and SLBMs became operational.

We used to say the B-52 was the box the B-47 came in, and the B-58 was an F-102 with four engines.

[Tommyjo]

No. These pictures have been coming out for years. Very hard to stop.

[Tommyjo]

The Indians Navy will be using the MiG-29K. They don't operate any Su-33s. China hasn't got any Su-33s as of yet.

[sukhoi-30mki]

China won't have the kind of organic aerial refuelling requirements that the USN will have given that it's carriers will primarily operate close to Chinese waters for atleast the next 10 years.Their SU-33s will have a good range of their own can be configured for buddy refuelling.If the Chinese do venture out into the Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea-they can always base IL-78
refuellers at their bases in Pakistan & Myanmar.

[sukhoi-30mki]

Ski-jumps mean a smaller payload & range.Most Russian origin carriers always carry a smaller number of aircraft(in hangars & on deck) compared to similar American ships.

[Non-Sequitur]

Were you part of the crowd that thought that (casino) when the Chicoms first bought it? there were so many I've lost track

Nope. I've just been idling watching from afar.

[Jeff Head]

I see a couple of problems with your scenario as you have explained it.

1st, if we proliferate nuclear weapons into the hands of our "satellites", then our enemies and antagonists will proliferate the weapons into the hands of their "satellites" in response. At some point thereafter, one or more of those satellites...or groups who will claim not to be attached to any of them, will fire a large enough strike at us to overcome our defenses, or they will simply get one intop the country and detonate it.

I expect, sooner or later, that last point is going to happen anyway.

The question then is, what do we do about it?

The question in this regard is also, what do we do when a number of the smaller nations light off their weapons at each other?

2nd, will we sit idly back as Russia and or China gobbles up the many countries of the earth that do not have the weapons. We will have little choice if they have built up their convetnional forces and we have not. Sooner or later, they will own enough of the world to be able to slowly and methodically hurt us economically.

No, conventional forces will be needed to protect our interests on the sea lanes and around the world, as I have said, in these nations where the nuclear umbrella and proliferation you have described has not exteneded. And if our competitors and agressors build theirs up, we will have to build ours up.

IMHO, the answer is to do what Reagan did which involves elements of both, and also involves a strong and unwaivering economic component that helps starve these nations economically so they cannot build or modernize either neclear or conventionally to match us. I believe we do have the economy to do that...we just need to spend it much more wisely and quit wasting it on unworkable and destructive social programs and experiments that destroy our spirit anyway and drain all of us to no good end.

Anyhow, that's just my opinion.

[StoneWall Brigade]

Thanks for posting such a good thread

[Jeff Head]

You are welcome...it is not the first. Use the keywrods in this post and click on them for a lot more over they years regarding the Varyag and the chinese Naval buildup.

As to Google Earth...yes, I have seen that pic...it's been the same for some time and a lot of folks are waiting for any update that Google does on occassion from the more recent sat images. In the mean time, we depend on tourists, business traveleres, and people on the ground in China to get out the latest...every now and thn the PRC itself posts something, but not too often.

[Yo-Yo]

China hasn't got any Su-33s as of yet.

According to the article of this posting, The Chineese and the Russians are working out a deal for Su-33s.

In October of 2006, the Kommersant online newspaper in Moscow announced a deal between Russia and China where the Russians sell up to 50 Su-33 fighters to China for $2.5 billion. Details seem to indicate that China will spend $100 million to buy two Su-33 fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur Production Association for evaluation, with delivery expected in 2007. There appears to also be a fairly firm option for 12 more Su-33 fighters, with the potential for the deal to add another 36 SU-33s.

[thinking]

The carrier looks like it is designed for "jump" jets, such as the Harrier, will China have a VTOL carrier aircraft soon?

[Jeff Head]

Actually, it is designed for high performance (high thrust to weight ratio) fighters like the SU-33, or Mig-29 who will use the ski-bow as an assist (like a catapault). Here are some pictures of the sister ship to this vessel currently in service with the Russians:

The Chinese will operate this one in a similar fashion IMHO.

[thinking]

Ok....will, I have to say that a missed hook, and go around, would require a quick hand on the power, but I guess, that A/C with an high power to weight ratio could handle it....as an observation; I don't think the Soviets had much success with carrier operations....(?)

[Jeff Head]

Just like us, they go to full throttle as soon as they touch down, just in case they miss the wire.

The Russians have been operating the Kuznetsov for several years now. Since they only have the one, they have only a handful of aircraft and a small number of aviators. But, their doctrine is intrinsically different than ours. Their carrier has a primary purpose of providing fleet air defense for ASW operations and for SAGs. Their own strike at sea or land capabilitiy with their carrier air wing is very, very limited.

We, OTOH, use our carriers with a primary role of air strike from the carrier. The escorts primarily protect the carrier, not vice versa, though the carrier wing does provide fleet air defense as well. But it is all geared towards getting those aircraft within striking distance of a target.

The Russians are all geared towards the carrier helping get their ships and subs within striking distance.

...and of course that have one carrier that they have operated for a few years, while we have operated 12 or more carriers for well over 60 years.