The Chinese Navy (PLAN) is Transforming the VARYAG into an operational aircraft carrier

The Rising Sea Dragin in Asia Web Site ^ | March 3, 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

HISTORY-TRANSFORMATION
In 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved, the second full-size aircraft carrier for the Soviet Union, the Varyag-sister ship to the Kuznetsov, was under construction in the Ukraine. Withe the Soviet demise, the Ukraine inherited the incomplete vessel but did not have the finances to complete her. In 1992 a Chinese delegation visited the Ukraine in the hopes of coming to terms on a purchase price of the unfinished vessel. A suitable purchase price was not agreed upon. Later, in 1998, the Chong Lot Travel Agency, a supposed Maccu firm, bought the Varyag from the Ukraine for $20 million dollars with the stated intention of making the Varyag a casino for commercial profit. As it turned out, Chong Lot had no offices in Maccu and was simply a front company for a Hong Kong firm called Chinluck Holding Co. Ltd. As it also turned out, the managing directors of Chinluck, had strong ties to the Chinese navy. It took three years for the front firm, Chong Lot Travel, to get permission to tow the Varyag through the Istanbul Straits and on to China. That permission was finally granted in 2001 and the following pictures document what has occurred to the Varyag since.

The Ukrainian Carrier Varyag in Ukraine Naval Yards, approximately 70% complete, prior to being towed away by Chong Lot Travel Agency.

The Chong Lot Travel Agency tows their newly purchased and rusting Varyag through the Istanbul Straits in late 2001.

The Varyag arrives in China at the end of its long voyage and is docked in the Chinese Naval shipyards at Dalian and in 2003
work begins on the vessel. In this time frame, not surprisingly, Chong Lot goes out of business.

Work continues on the Varyag in the Dalian naval shipyards throughout 2004, with several large cranes participating.

The Vayag spends several months of very expensive time in dry dock in the Dalian naval shipyards in 2005.

The Varyag emerges from dry dock painted in official Chinese Navy colors and the work of refitting her continues.

More painting and refit work contiues on the Varyag, now in official PLAN colors in 2005 and with flags flying for a VIP visit.

A Zinc Chromate primer is applied to the main deck in 2006 in Dalian. This is a primer for a non-skid surface to keep aircrafft from skidding off
of a carrier's main deck. Note the large storage and logistics facilities that have been constructed dockside to the right and behind the carrier.

The Zinc Chromate primer is covered over in 2006 in the Dalian naval shipyards.

The final non-skid surface appears to have been added to the Varyag's main deck in late 2006.

Varyag looking very trim and squared away in late 2006 at Dalian naval shipyards..

The forward portion of the Varyag in early 2007 in Dalian. The hull and flight deck seem to be nearing completion.

AIRCRAFT
In October of 2006, the Kommersant online newspaper in Moscow announced a deal between Russia and China where the Russians sell up to 50 Su-33 fighters to China for $2.5 billion. Details seem to indicate that China will spend $100 million to buy two Su-33 fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur Production Association for evaluation, with delivery expected in 2007. There appears to also be a fairly firm option for 12 more Su-33 fighters, with the potential for the deal to add another 36 SU-33s. In that event, the deal would total the $2.5 billion. The SU-33 fighter is the navalized version of the SU-27 fighter that China has purchased in large numbers from the Russians and now license builds themselves. It is the same fighter that the Russians use on their carrier, the Kuznetsov, which is the older sister ship to the Varyag. In addition, over the last two years, the Chinese have been negotiating with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter, which is the helicopter the Russians use on their carrier for AEW duties. The Chinese have also introduced designs for prop-driven AEW aircraft of their own similar to the United States E-2 Hawkeye aircraft. The continuing efforts by the PLAN to obtain navalized, carrier fighters and AEW aircraft from Russia (or design their own), coupled with the recent completion of a non-skid surface on the flight deck of the Varyag, and its painting in official PLAN colors, make it abudnantly clear that this vessel, at some future date, will be China's first aircraft carrier.

In 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians to purchase SU-33 naval fighters for carrier operations, receiving special demonstations at Moscow and Chinese military airshows.

Throughout 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter which is used for early warning (AEW) purposes, the same AEW helo the Russins use on their carrier.

ESCORTS
WHile all of this has been occuring, the PLAN has embarked on a phenominal naval ship building and modernization program, simultaneously working on ten to twelve new classes of major combatants and building several of each at one time. This program has already developed and launched all of the necessary modern classes of guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, attack submarines, and supply ships to form the basis for a very powerful carrier strike group once a carrier is available...and to defend and supply it in the blue water, as the following pictures attest.

Two new modern, AEGIS-like area air defense destroyers for the PLAN, equiped with VLS and PAR. These ships would be very capable as escorts for a carrier.

Two of four modern and very powerful Russian destroyers built for the PLAN, specifically designed to hunt super-carriers.

Two new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile destroyers suitable for carrier escort duties and capable in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

Two of six new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile frigates with VLS AAW and suitable for carrier escort duties in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

PLAN nuclear attack submarines, older HAN class (5) and two of the new Type-093 class capable of escoprt duties for a PLAN carrier.

The new class large at sea replenishment ships for the PLAN, capable of replenishing a PLAN carrier strike group.

CONCLUSIONS
It is this author's and researcher's opinion that the Chinese Navy (PLAN) will launch the Varyag in the 2008-2010 time frame and begin trials and training for her use as an operational aircraft carrier with a wing of SU-33 aircraft, perhaps modernized with vectored thrust and strike at sea and ground attack capabilities in addition to its already significant air superiority capabilites. Furthermore, this air wing will be supported by KA-31 AEW helos operating off the carrier in conjunction with other ASW and SAR helicopters. This training will be ongoing for several years as the PLAN gains experience in carrier operations, and will prepare them for the introduction of one or more of their own indigenous carrier later in the 2010 decade, which will include Chinese indigenous navalized aircraft and their own, more capable AEW and EW aircraft.

Jeff Head is an engineering consultant with many years experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently works for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and is also the author of a self-published and best-selling series of military techno-thrillers called the Dragon's Fury that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events. You can learn more about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES

Copyright © 2007 by Jeff Head

AVAILABLE AS A FREE ADOBE EBOOK DOWNLOAD TO ALL FREEPERS ---> HERE

[Jeff Head]

Agree. The A-12 was way over budget and they down selected too soon...but the specs were what we needed...and still need IMHO, and I wish they would get another tender going along those lines...but I doubt seriously that they ever will, until we are in the middle of a slug fest where we desperately need it.

I agree the AF and the ship building look good procuremnt wise...its just that we are severely underfunding the rate of procurement in all areas IMHO.

[Stonewall Jackson]

The FoxNews ticker just had that the Chinese government has confirmed that they are increasing their military budget by 17.8% this next year. Since they spent at least $65-billion last year, this is an increase of over $11.5-billion.

That is a lot of new ships, tanks, and planes that will be sporting the red star of China.

[Jeff Head]

...and that's what they admit to. My guess is that it is somewhat higher.

In addition, without all of the same legal concerns, environmental concerns, benefits, OSHA, creature comfort, etc. concerns, their dollars go a lot further than our own in every field...research, development, manufacture, testing, etc.

[Stonewall Jackson]

According to GlobalSecurity.Org, the Chinese government only admits to a budget of $24.5-billion for 2004 (the last year they have the official numbers for), but US analysts estimate that they actually spent somewhere between $65 and $85-billion.

[Jeff Head]

I see...you were already including the kicker then.

Either way, they are getting a lot of bang for each and every buck. The amount of naval shipbuilding going on over there is simply phenominal and we should be concerned.

[investigateworld]

I see a number of nations which don't operate Aircraft Carriers buy the F/A 18's.

Are these a special model or do they just take the tail hook off the basic model?

[Jeff Head]

The arrestor hook need not be deployed. My guess is that there are other modifications and differences requested by the purchasing nations and supplied by contract.

[Stonewall Jackson]

I just read a frightening article over at GlobalSecurity. Apparently, our wonderful friend, Putin, has authorized the sale of TU-22M Backfire bombers to the Chinese.

When you add these to the mix of advanced surface warships and attack submarines that have recently been entering the Chinese arsenal, you have a triple threat the likes of which the US Navy has not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/tu-22m.htm

[Jeff Head]

I've been following that...it would be a significant development, particularly in the confined spaces and waters of the China Sea.

That was a 2004 report, but there has been no mention or notice of the Backfires in China yet. Many wonder if it an actual deal or just the Russians talking at this point.

Time will tell.

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

The truth is we need both the most advanced and numbers and no one in the leadership position gets it yet.

Carriers and infantry are fine for regional problems. ICBMs are cheap and stand behind everything. Carriers and infantry are useless in global conflicts, no matter how much you have.

[zot]

Sounds like you either are, or were, a submariner. All surface vessels are targets to submariners.

I was in the Air Force, but you make a good point.

[cva66snipe]

I personally believe that they are already in there. There have been several periods where absolutely no pictures have been available for many months...corresponding to tighter security measures. My personal belief it that eiother during the dry dock time or sometime just before that, engines could well have been installed.

My guess is it came from the Ukraine with at least a 90% complete propulsion plant including boilers, turbines, generators, and shafts. Most of that has to be done in early hull construction. IOW common sense would ask why would the Ukraine {Russia} build a ship to that level of hull completion to start with for themselves and not put in the propulsion plant in the early stages as needed? I don't think they would.

It's the other things that take time as well like the catapult and arresting gears etc. Then there's electronics to install galley equipment etc. Plus my guess is some internal piping may have been incomplete. The needed equipment was likely in place but still had to all be tied together welds checked etc.

The drydock period? Barnacle scraping, valve replacements, general hull maintenance, etc and adding the screws if they were not installed before purchase. But I'm betting they were there as well. If the discharge valves in pump rooms, engine rooms, etc are leaking then it's a drydock issue to repair them usually. We tried a valve repair in port on a discharge for an eductor system. We chickened out and that was likely a wise choice. We weren't sure E.O.D. had plugged the right port or not.

[Jeff Head]

Sorry...but we disagree. If Red China, N. Korea, Iran, Syria, Venezuela and others all came together, they would avoid a nuclear escalation like the plague, and short of them initiating it, I doubt we would use them first.

In such a scenario, we'd better have both a srtong Navy and boots on the ground army/marines.

Such a scenario is unlikely until these nations, particularly China, build up sufficient fore projection of their own...and guess what, they are. They are building like crazy.

I doubt very seriousl;y that should the time come, China will go it alone against us over Taiwan or their other interests in the Western Pacific. No, they will wait and probably encourage others to get us tied down in several places, distracted as much as possible, before they make any over move.

So, what do you have if there are two regional conflicts going at once that you are embroiled in and then someone aligned with your enemies opens up a third? ...global conflict.

Not saying it is going to happen, just saying that given what people are doing right now all around us, we'd better be prepared for it.

[Jeff Head]

hehehe...all surface vessels and installations are also target to groundpounders as well...and understandably so. Or, if it was the F-16 or F-15E, it would have been both. Awesome aircraft that F-15E.

[Jeff Head]

hehehe...all surface vessels and installations are also target to groundpounders as well...and understandably so.

Did you fly or work on fighters or attack aircraft?

Or, if it was the F-16 or F-15E, it would have been both. Awesome aircraft that F-15E.

[Jim Noble]

Unlike in your books, I do not believe we are prepared - financially, infrastructurally, and most importantly, culturally - to lose a few carriers.

[Jeff Head]

Ukraine indicated that they removed the engines and rudders before the vessel was towed away...I do not know if there was independent verification on the engines, but the vessel appeared to have no rudders. How much of the auxillary and associated equipment would have been removed, no one knows.

It's just that my guess is that they have already, over the last 3-4 years in the yards, fixed most of that, either before or inconjunction with their dry dock stay. I guess they could bring some of it in through the elevator openings, and then go through the hanger deck if they had to. A lot of equipment, some it if fairly large, has been moved in from dock side from those big logistical buildings that were built there by the carrier specifically for it.

I guess we shall see. As always, thanks for your input my friend, particularly as one who "has been there and done that" as a snipe!

[Jeff Head]

Well, in the book we were not prepared at first either...we were pretty badly mauled up front and then pushed back for 2-3 years (Japan, Taiwan, Australia, even part of Alaska lost) before hurculean efforts here state side began to make a difference and turn the tide, coupled with drastic changes once the lead started flying, regarding our industry, manufacturing, energy, trade, and immigration policy.

We had a leader in the book who was not only spot on in their belief and faith in the traditional American way...but who had the will and the leadership to get the rest of the nation in the midst of terrible carnage, to back up and go along with those initiatives en masse, despite the braying of the left at the time.

But that's what it took, and then the hard work and sacrifice of the American people, similar to World War II, and the blood of their best out on the war lines, as well as the blood of the citizens themselves killed by the tens of thousandss right here in the CONUS by terrorists and infiltrators who carry the fight directly to us.

Even though I wrote the book in an attempt to guard against just such a scenario...sadly, tragically, I believe such an occurance (and maybe a lot worse) is in our future unless we somehow find a way to turn things around as a people, and then by extension with our leadership, before our growing and strengthening enemies make the decisions for us.

[cyn]

Thanks, Jeff, for this post and for that link to your website. I have a hard time following the technicalities ... which makes me appreciate all the more that folks here are able and willing to dig into them. Thanks for all you and others do for us.

[Jeff Head]

You are welcome...it something of a hobby for me as far as naval technology and strategies go (and has been most of my life-my Dad was a combat vnavy vet from the PTO in World War II), and it is also disconcerting and worth following given the rapid rise of such a potentially beligerent power.