The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2007 Update

The rRsing Sea Dragon in Asia Web Site ^ | 24 February 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA - 2007 UPDATE By Jeff Head - Last Update: February 24, 2007 Throughout 2006 and into 2007 the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has continued its unprecedented modernization and buildup, adding two entirely new classes of major combatant warships to its inventory, along with the other twelve new classes they have been working on. Large numbers of new guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, fast attack craft, very modern and quiet diesel/electric attack submarines, nuclear attack submarines, nuclear ballistic missile submarines, logisitic support craft, amphibious assault craft, and the infrastructure and aircraft to support them are coming online and being trialed and tested at sea and in the air by the PLAN. The major new classes include the improved Type 054, or Ma'anshan guided missile frigates (FFG), called the Type 054A. These vessels represent a significant improvment of the first two frigates which had been launched and commissioned earlier. The craft appear to have a larger displacement and include a VLS system for their anti-air missiles. Two of these were built and launched in 2006 and the next two are nearing completion with a fifth and possibly a sixth already under construction. It is clear that these vessels will be produced in significant numbers, perhpas up to 25. Two new modern and stealthy, Type 054A guided-missile frigates were launched with the 3rd, 4th, and 5th building. More than twenty are projected. The second new class introduced by the PLAN in 2006 was the Type 071 LPD, amphibious assault vessel. Similar to the US San Antonio Landing Platform Dock (LPD), this vessel is a very modern addition to the PLAN Amphibious fleet. it is thought that another vessel of this class may well be constructed in 2007, perhaps more. Displacing over 20,000 tons and including a well-deck for smaller amphibious assault craft, the vessel is also armed with 4 CIWS and a dual purpose main gun. The potential for an anit-air craft missile system, either VLS or cannister mounted is also included. Two to four helocoptors for air assault will aslo be embarked on the large flight deck. A new, large LPD amphibious assault vessel, Type 071, was built and launched in 2006 by the PLAN. Another significant and telling development in 2006 deals with the Aircraft carrier Varyag that has been being worked on and refitted in the Dalian Shipyards for the last three years. In 2006 the Chinese announced a deal with the Russians to acquire up to fifty SU-33 aircraft, which are the navalized and carrier capable versions of the Russian SU-27 aircraft (also in service with the Peeople's Republic. These are the same aircraft employed on the Russian carrier, Kuznetsov, which is the sister ship to the Varyag that, as mentioned, is now in the Chinese naval shipyard. In addition, the zinc chromate covering, which is a primer for a non-skid surface for aircraft on a carrier deck, has now been painted over with what appears to be a final dark grey non-skid surface. Both of these development are clear indications that the PLAN intends to launch and commission the Varyag as an operational Chinese carrier, probably within the next 24-36 months. Also of particular note the PLAN took possesion of two improved Sovremenny class destroyers purchased from the Russians. These vessels represent the most modern upgrades to the Sovremenny class vessels available and were built entirely new, specifically for the PLAN. The Sovremenny class destroyers were designed by the Russians to operate in conjunction with other naval and air assets to locate and destroy super carriers such as those deployed by the US Navy. Two new, improved Project 956, Hangzhou guided-missile destroyers been delivered to the PLAN, bringng to four the number of these carrier hunters in service. Finally, the PLAN commissioned a second new class replenishment ship, the Weishanhu 887, which is the second in the Qiandaohu class. The Qiandaohu 886 was commissioned in 2005. These represent new fleet replenshiment vessels that now join the four other replenishment vessels the PLAN has. The new ship conducted port visits with Chinese DDGs to Pakistan and India in 2006 and this represents a continued move on the PLAN's part toward blue water operations. The new fleet replenishment vessel, the Weishanhu 887, was commissioned and joined the Qiandaohu 886 in 2006 and was promptly sent on port calls in the same year. More and more Stealth FAC Type 022s were being built throughout 2006 at multiple shipyards. It is not known exactly how many of these advanced, fast, and stealthy catamaran missile boats have been built, but estimates now range up well over twenty and perhaps as many as thirty. It is estimated that as many as 100 will be built. Many more stealth catamaran FACs were built during 2006. In addition, the many other vessels and aircraft spoken of from this site's 2006 PLAN Update, continue to be integrated into PLAN operations ... By way of reference, in general numbers, over the last five to six years, the PLAN has built and launched over 80 new major surface combatants for its fleet. In that same time period, they have not decommissioned any major surface combatants, meaning they have added 80 major surface combatant vessels to their inventory. In that same period, the US Navy has built 46 new major surface combatants. At the same time, the US Navy has decommissioned 49 major surface combatants, many of them with 10-15 years of service life remaining, meaning a net loss of three major surface combatants in this period. Clearly the trend shows that the PLAN is rapidly closing the gap between itself and the US Navy, and particualrly when focusing on the Western Pacific, which is where the PLAN is concentrated, this is a trend worthy of watching and considering in future US Navy and other western nation's planning and acquisition schedules.

[Jeff Head]

Agreed on both counts...great projects out there, and the need for larger fleets.

[Jeff Head]

No doubt that there are...but I personally believe that you can also reach a point in both numbers of vessels and your ability to produce more if need be, where you skate on thin ice.

I believe we are getting close to that point, even given our build schedule. I just believe 313 ships (or whatever the latest target is), is too small a number given the current build rate and the growth rate of the Chinese.

...and we are having to build back up to get to that number.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

Excellent! Thanks for the link.

America has been through a lot just in my lifetime. A world war, "wars of liberation" around the Globe, attempts to start civil war / revolution here, recession, stagnation, inflation, stagflation, the loss of one of our great traditional political parties to the 1960s New Left Rats, actual traitors at the highest level of government.. lots more.

We can easily (more or less) handle the cut off of trade with Red China, they would be destroyed.

[Non-Sequitur]

We need to begin a massive naval construction program in the next few years if we want to have any chance of facing the Chinese on an equal footing.

Dream on, for several reasons. One, no money. Iraq is sucking up every spare dollar the military has and ever additional dollar they can pry out of Congress. Major weapons platforms like the P-7 and the LCS are being cut back or cancelled. Carriers and amphibious ships are being deployed on a much faster schedule, cutting back on maintenance time. Which isn't that big an issue short term since maintenance dollars are being directed towards Iraq anyway. So not only do you not have the money for new ships, you're wearing out the ones you have at a greater rate. Two, it's impossible. You have two sources for all your surface ships destroyer sized or larger, one source for carriers, two sources for nuclear submarines. They don't have the manpower or the space for any more work than they have now. So increasing your output isn't practical. If we're going to bring additional platforms to bear on China then we're stuck with what we have. The only option is to shift units from the Atlantic Fleet to the Pacific so they're closer.

[Jeff Head]

The biggest difference right now between our naval building program and the chinese can be characterized by two simple things:

1) They have the capacity right now to build new classes at multiple shipyards simultaneously, putting out 2 and 4 new vessels in each class and can work on eight to ten new classes at a time in this fashion. We have limited ourselves to very few active shipyards where producing one or two new vessels of a particular class a year is stretching us...and then working on only two-three classes at a time.

2) They continue building and refining what they have...we are decommissioning vessels many other nations would love to have, with 10-15 years service life left on them...and then not keeping them available at all in the event of a crisis...but instead, sinking them.

Here's a graphical representation:

PLAN Naval Buildup (two to four ships at a time) vs. US Naval buildup (sinking our own).

One day, it may well catch up with us and it will be ugly. My Dad, a World War II Navy combat vet of the PTO, told me many times before he passed away in 2004 that it reminded him of the pre-World War II days.

[Eastbound]

Thanks for the ping, Jeff!

Best -- Dave

[philetus]

Nothing to worry about Jeff. They are just building all the WAR ships because they needed something for everybody to do.
They are our bestest, sweetest allies.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

Wow! The Chi-Coms started with small backyard steel furnaces in every commune and urban neighbourhood making steel out of scrap metal (pots and pans and such) and fueled by denuded trees and wood taken from the doors and furniture of peasants' houses!

In only a few years they developed that into the technology to build modern ships.. wow!

Wot?

Billions and billions of dollars from western FDI? Western intellectual property? Western technology? Western equipment? "Free traders?" DNC? DNC.. what's that?

[jim macomber]

Fascinating stuff, Jeff. I can't watch the news coming out of China, Iran, and elsewhere without thinking of the prescience and accuracy of your Dragon's Fury novels.

[Jeff Head]

It is amazing, phenominal, what we are doing in the face of China's rise to power...both militarily and economically. Ands one day, it is going to come back to haunt us.

[Jeff Head]

You are welcome my friend. GOd's best and His blessings to you and yours.

As I continue to write about and research this issue of China's military rise and expansion, I can always here my dear late father's words, a few months before he died, as he reviewed my material. That combat naval officer from World War II, a veteran of the PTO, would simply remind me how what we are seeing now, reminded him so much of what he saw in the late 1930s as Germany and Japan rose to power...particularly their massive shipbuilding efforts.

[Jeff Head]

Bush has done the right thing in taking the war to the Islamic radicals. But far too many in the administration and left over from appointments during the Clinton years take the Chinese lightly and view them as our working partners. I believe we are missing the boat and that the larger, long term threat comes from China. In fact, I personally believe that they have and continue to abett the enemies we are fighting in the middle east...testing us, occupying us while they go about their own buildup.

[Jeff Head]

Thanks Jim, to me, most of this stuff is as plain as the nose on our faces. Hope all is well with you and yours and that your own well published works and writings continue to prosper. God's speed!

[thinking]

Every time you buy something from the WallMart, you supply components for the new fleet

[Jeff Head]

Sadly, the economic issue has become MUCH more widespread than just Walmart...and that's just the consumer economic side of it.

[sasportas]

Every time you buy something from the WallMart, you supply components for the new fleet.

Good grief! You are right, I won't be buying from Wallmart...now, if I can just convince my wife.

[Jeff Head]

FYI...you're hard earned dollars at work.

[miliantnutcase]

That's why the fleets still carry Tico cruisers with them. Imo, these things should not be replaced with burks.

[khnyny]

Your vanity article is excellent.

[Jeff Head]

Usually a CSG will embark with one tico and two burkes. The latest flight Burkes are extremely good at AAW, very close to the Ticos. But they have no Harpoons for long range ASuW work. They are however capable of carrying two SeaHawks now, like the Ticos.