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Posted on 02/20/2007 5:37:09 AM PST by areafiftyone
WASHINGTON – Morris Udall. Dick Gephardt. John Kasich. Bob Dornan. Jack Kemp. James Garfield. Dennis Kucinich.
What these gentlemen have in common – other than having all served in the House of Representatives – is that each ran for the White House while he was still a congressman. Only one of them made it.
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And he got shot.
Now that Duncan Hunter has taken the plunge for the Republican presidential nomination official, the Alpine congressman may soon encounter the peculiar challenges that face a sitting House member who wants to be president.
“Many House members feel the urge (to run) in spite of their public invisibility, lack of national stature and limited access to campaign funds,” said Thomas Mann, a presidential campaign scholar at the Brookings Institution. “History suggests they should resist.”
Be certain that Hunter, a former House Armed Services Committee chairman, has thought of all this. But he's betting that his conservative stands on defense matters, international trade and border enforcement will distinguish him from other Republican candidates now hogging the headlines, including a Sept. 11 hero (former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani) and a war hero (Arizona Sen. John McCain).
Plenty of sitting House members have aimed for the Oval office, some more successfully than others.
Morris Udall, the Democratic congressman from Arizona, may have run the most credible campaign in recent decades: He narrowly lost to Jimmy Carter in the 1976 presidential primaries. Experts attribute his success in part to his stature in the House, his famous sense of humor and his engaging, self-deprecating manner.
“He didn't come across as either arrogant or as a lightweight,” said David Rhode, a political science professor at Duke University. “He was a skilled politician, but he wasn't too full of himself. With just a little more luck, he might have been president.”
Having clout in the House offers no guarantee. Most people have probably heard of Richard Gephardt, the former House Democratic leader who tried twice to win his party's nomination. He was widely respected in Congress, had strong ties to key party constituencies and performed well in debates, but lost the nominations in 1988 and 2004.
The only sitting House member ever to win the presidency was James Garfield. Back in 1880, he was the Republican leader of the House, in a day when candidates were chosen within the party. Garfield became the dark-horse candidate when the Republican convention became deadlocked, and he won the White House in 1881.
Two months after his inauguration, he was assassinated by a disgruntled lawyer in a Washington, D.C., train station. Since Garfield's time, the nominating process has become public and the financial demands are enormous, requiring candidates to lure early “seed” money that might give their campaigns stature. While Hunter raised more than $1 million for each of his last two congressional campaigns, being little known outside his district will make it difficult to attract the $50 million to $100 million each presidential candidate may need to be a serious contender.
“Money is very important in the year before the primary, because it's used to judge the viability of a candidate,” said Stephen Wayne, a presidential scholar at Georgetown University. “He's going to have a tough time, because financial backers like to get behind people who have a chance.”
John Anderson, an Illinois congressman who ran for the Republican nomination in 1980, was in a situation that resembles Hunter's, experts say. But although only a third-tier candidate, he ran second to George Bush Sr. in the Massachusetts primary and second to Ronald Reagan in Vermont. Overnight, he became a household name, though he could not maintain his momentum in later primary states. In the general election, he ran as an independent against Reagan and then-President Jimmy Carter, taking 7 percent of the national vote.
Anderson's presidential campaign spokesman, Mark Bisnow, attributed Anderson's initial success to the campaign's media focus in early-voting states and to worry among conservatives about Reagan's movie-actor status.
“Even though he was one of the most respected congressmen of his day, a person of towering integrity, as articulate as they come and very moderate, nobody knew him outside Washington,” said Bisnow, who wrote a book about the campaign titled “Diary of a Dark Horse.”
“All the attention was showered on the people who were already well-known.”
The list of House members who sought the presidency goes on. There was Jack Kemp, the New York Republican winnowed out during early primary voting in 1988; Bob Dornan, the Orange County Republican who made a brief bid for the nomination in 1994; John Kasich, the Ohio Republican who faced a dozen primary candidates in 2000; and Dennis Kucinich, the Ohio Democrat who placed far behind in almost all primary states in 2004.
Kucinich is running again and he believes national stature will matter less in the 2008 election than in the past.
“This goes beyond your rank in the political firmament,” he said. “This election is going to be about the war, and anyone who wants to be president will have to explain why they voted for the war.”
One thing that dark horses have going for them is that no one expects them to do well. It helps, Wayne said, if such a candidate “can do something in the beginning – like raising lots of money or performing well in New Hampshire or Iowa – something that makes the media and activists say, 'Wow, this person has really surprised us.' ”
“It happened with Jimmy Carter,” Wayne said. “And it happened with Bill Clinton.”
They don't like to elect Mayors either, apparently.
How about using FR to attempt to help supporters of no chance in hell candidates to get to a soft landing on planet Earth?
If you believe that conservative candidates have no chance in hell, then why are you on a site that is dedicated to promoting conservatives? Wait. I already know the answer to that question. To promote the liberal candidates and demoralize conservatives. That makes you a troll.
I believe you one or two issues social issues zealots don't get to define what is a conservative.
Conservatives also existed before abortion was an issue.
I live in Texas and Ron Paul is actually my congressman.
He won't even carry his district, much less Texas.
Good post, but if the states nowadays are incapable of controlling the border, . . . . . . well then, should not the federal authority step in? IMO the current level of illegals is tantamount to an invasion, and we've seen what happens when border patrol attempts to change the ROE. This is a federal problem.
"....Bob Dornan, the Orange County Republican who made a brief bid for the nomination in 1994."
No Pres. election in 1994.
Sloppy reporting and editing.
Yes today it is totally a federal problem given the reduction of the militia to inconsequence. That was a pipe dream of some of the Revolutionary generation and the Jeffersonians.
But this is not an "invasion" as mentioned in the Constitution which was military. These are individuals seeking a better life just as those of 1800 were most of whom just showed up and stayed too when not actively sought by states, companies, capitalists.
Until the root cause is effectively addressed there is no real answer to the problem of illegals. That cause is the enormous difference in economic opportunity between the US and Mexico. And we see those most opposed to Illegals generally also those most opposed to any economic policies (Free Trade, opening factories in Mexico, etc.) which could reduce the flow. Most of us will admit that if we were in the situation of the Illegals we would be illegal too. For far too many that is the only hope for a decent life for them and their families.
When hundreds of miles of inhospitable even killing deserts don't stop it little else will work. We can build fences but they will only be tunnelled under or gone over and the US will not accept being turned into a police state in order to deter the Illegals.
Nov showed that the anti-Illegal movement lost hence little it wants will be undertaken since the House conservatives are no longer in power and those in the Senate were destroyed in every race they ran.
IMHO, in the end its all about executive ability and experience..which is why Rudy polls so well, and why Congressman rarely make it out of the gate.
I'll send Hunter a donation right after I win the $150 Million MegaMillion Lottery. I think my chances of winning that are higher than Hunter polling over 2%, never mind winning the nomination and him beating Hillary has such astronomical odds, that a 100 monkeys would have to write zeros for 100 years to get close.
Why are you posting to me?
Do you have a Republican candidate that you would like me to consider?
two points to make here....
1)You said...."I think what they mean is the American people do not like to elect Senators or Representatives. Very rarely do they make it beyond that."
You just nullified one of the points that people are using to promote Rudy...hes the ONLY one who can defeat Hillary.
Good job mon ;0)
2)We are in a different age now, far different than the presidential runs of Udall, Gephardt, Kemp, Garfield, etc...
Now, we have the power of the internet, we have sites like Free Republic, we have blogs..ie...we have forums where political grassroots activities can be organized and run....effectively.
We also have a 24 hour news cycle in a no holds competitive cable market, where players like Fox and cNN vie for viewers.
In short...its a brand new day mon...the rules have changed...all bets are off.
Lets see what happens after the debates....as the campaigns gather steam.
To early to call.....
Try six or seven issue voters.
True, but to Lefties, John Kerry's Vietnam experience was even MORE heroic because he ultimately blamed the war on Nixon and made some speeches with Jane Fonda.
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