Posted on 02/17/2007 11:41:10 AM PST by blam
Asteroid threat demands response, experts warn
16:26 17 February 2007
NewScientist.com news service
Ivan Semeniuk, San Francisco
If the asteroid Apophis hits Earth in 2036, it could slam into the Pacific Ocean, generating a tsunami that could devastate the west coast of North America (Illustration: Don Davis/NASA)
Kamchatkans and Venezuelans beware. A 20-million-tonne asteroid could be heading your way. Californians have even more reason to worry - the asteroid is more likely to hit the Pacific Ocean, triggering a tsunami that could devastate the west coast of North America.
These are among the scenarios projected for asteroid Apophis, which researchers now say has a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting Earth on 13 April 2036. Calculations show it would strike somewhere along a narrow track that stretches eastward from Siberia to the west coast of Africa.
Compared to earlier estimates, the new figure represents a further reduction in the threat posed by Apophis (see Risk of asteroid smashing into Earth reduced). But the threat is real enough, experts argue, to merit a United Nations protocol for dealing with the problem.
"Someone will have to make a decision," says Russell Schweickart, a former Apollo astronaut and founder of the Association of Space Explorers. Because any plan for deflecting the asteroid away from Earth will need to be implemented well before an impact site is precisely known, he says, "this is inherently going to be an international decision".
Sky surveys
Beginning in the next few months, Schweickart's group will host a series of meetings to provide the UN with a 'decision process' for assessing and acting on the hazard posed by Apophis and other near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). A draft document ready for consideration by the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space is expected by
(Excerpt) Read more at space.newscientist.com ...
Can we steer it so that it hits where we want it to hit? China? Iran? I'm sure this question will come up.
Oh, no, not Earth!
That's where I keep all my stuff!
I'm sure somebody will correct me in the interest of crowd control, also sure it doesn't mean anything, but, aren't we seeing more of these "something impacts the earth" stories lately?
Random probability, yes.
The mathmatical probability which is based on the historical record would come up with a different answer. My assertion is that the historical record shows it is more likely to be closer to 1000 years from now than 100 years from now.
I think someone drank it to replenish his precious bodily fluids. Purity of essence, that's the watchword.
Not to worry. The End of the World is in 2001, anyway!
This is an old topic.
This is an old topic.
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