Posted on 02/12/2007 6:43:36 AM PST by areafiftyone
MANCHESTER, N.H. - New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary a year from now think more highly of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani than any of his rivals, a poll released Tuesday shows.
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Giuliani's net favorability rating — the proportion of people viewing him favorably minus the proportion viewing him unfavorably — was 56 percent, well ahead of Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record), 32 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 26 percent, in the University of New Hampshire poll for WMUR-TV in Manchester.
"He's the lesser-known candidate, but he has that rock star quality," poll director Andy Smith said of Giuliani. "He has a charisma that was built after 9-11."
This long before an election, political professionals pay more attention to favorability than voters' choices if they had to vote today. McCain and Giuliani were essentially tied at about 27 percent on that question among likely GOP primary voters, followed by Romney at 13 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9 percent.
The GOP portion of the telephone poll reached 311 likely voters from Thursday to Monday and had an error margin of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
Former Sen. John Edwards and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record) had net favorability ratings ranging from 61 percent to 55 percent, too close to be statistically significant.
When asked for whom they would vote, 35 percent of likely Democratic voters picked Clinton, 21 percent Obama and 15 percent Edwards. Eight percent chose former Vice President Al Gore, who is not running.
The Democratic portion of the phone poll reached 353 likely voters and had an error margin of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.
Independents may vote in either primary, and 68 percent of them indicated they planned to vote in the Democratic primary compared to 32 percent leaning toward the GOP contest.
"This will hurt Republican candidates who try to appeal to more moderate, independent voters," Smith said.
Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to take a bad situation and make it worse by running leftward.
Rudy is pro-war. He cannot lose votes on the right flank and make up for them going leftwards - the antiwar sentiment increases rapidly the further left one goes.
All eight pubbies implicated by the Abramoff scandal lost. The Foley scandal, and the poor handling of such by Hastert, had an impact as well.
So, in other words, we should all vote more liberal? Hmm. Not really a conservative stance, imo.
Yep, and they all know this. The math doesn't work well for Giuliani, and I really think that is why he has been slow in actually officially declaring his candidacy. If he loses 25% of the GOP vote, and the Democrats gain 15 to 20 million new liberal voters, the GOP will be doomed to defeat.
To top off all of this, if Giuliani is nominated the churches that signed up millions in 2000 and especially in 2004 will not lift a finger to help him. They brought out a huge vote in 2004.
Dear dirtboy,
"Rudy is pro-war. He cannot lose votes on the right flank and make up for them going leftwards - the antiwar sentiment increases rapidly the further left one goes."
Stop making sense.
sitetest
What's actually scary that people think Free Republic = The Republican Party.
People really need to stop kidding themselves about how many people in the general population share their views - I'm sure because there SEEM to be a lot on your favorite political message board and in your family and your local church you think it really represents the country at large...
It doesn't.
His poll numbers are skyrocketing. In 1007 they stood at zero (Larryus Sabotous was quoted as saying his social philosophy would drag him into negative numbers). "After creeping along for almost 999 years his numbers have shown a tremendous increase in the last few months' campaign" Guiliani spokesmen claim.
Well, you need an anti-war social conservative.
Good luck.
Here's why...
I will never forgive McCain for his role in the anti-constitutional campaign finance law.
Furthermore, I believe that Rudy possesses the managerial temperament and skill to be an excellent strong leader.
That said - I'm looking closely at Romney as well.
If it's Rudy vs Hillary then the goodbye to America seems to be a given either way.
No, you need a pro-war social conservative to hold the GOP together and draw in pro-life, pro-gun Reagan Democrats and pro-war Lieberman Democrats.
Rudy could draw some Lieberman Democrats. But it won't be enough to offset his losses on his right flanks.
"" I live in the South. Rudy will never fly here. The Evangelicals will stay home."'
Well that then guarantees a Rudy win in Southern primaries....also tell me which Southern states will Hillary win in the general election beside AR?
You think that evangelicals are that much of a influence in states like FL, GA, NC? Sorry they arent.
Where the evangelical vote staying hoem matters isnt in deep red states, but in purple ones like OH and MO which could go DEM. GA isnt voting for Hillary over Guliani.
Of course I could see some of the stupid purist staying home and not voting at all thus costing the GOP senate seats in places like CO, NM, VA...Like what happened to Tom McClintok in CA. Conservatives didnt like Arnold, so they just stayed home and for some odd reason didnt even bother to go vote for their savior Tom McClintok who had been favored to win
They call the GOP the stupid party, but often it is the conservative movement that is "the stupid movement"
Rudy supports CFR. And abortion rights. And gun control. And amnesty. And...
Are you claiming that if Giuliani wins the nomination, we won't be seeing months of vicious attacks from socio-cons?
Especially if they march off to cobble together a quixotic third-party?
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