Do Vanity Candidates Really Have a Chance? (Michael Medved)

Michael Medved's Townhall Blog ^ | February 8, 2007 | Michael Medved

[EveningStar]

Two days ago, in blogging about the abortion records of the serious GOP Presidential prospects (McCain, Giuliani, Romney), I provoked a great deal of anger by writing off the other current contenders (Huckabee, Brownback, Tancredo, Ron Paul, Gilmore, Thompson, Duncan Hunter) as "lesser" candidates who stand no realistic chance of winning primaries or grabbing the nomination. No matter how much you may admire these people, their candidacies are irrelevant – more a bid for attention, or a preparation for future races, than a realistic bid for power...

When, in the last 60 years of Presidential politics, did any obscure underdog manage to defy the odds and win the nomination of the Republican Party?...

[deport]

Interesting in that some 20% would chose not to vote..... McCain is definetly the outsider.

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/poll?poll=158;results=1

[Torie]

Trust me on this one. It was clear the Kerry was going to win for a couple of weeks, and that Dick Gephardt was comatose. The chat was whether or not Dean would sell better in NH, and be able to survive the body blow he was going to get in Iowa.

[BunnySlippers]

My recollection is that Dean was considered dead meat two to three weeks before the Iowa primary. He just seemed too controversial, chatting about repealing all the tax cuts, etc.

And he was making outrageous charges such as Bush knowing about 9/11 in advance. He was talking crazy.

Still does. :)

[Torie]

By the way, Iowa farm land prices went up another 10% last year. Aren't ethanol subsidies grand? I hope you got in on the ground floor, and have purchased a fair chunk of Story County. My mother's and my aunt's farm is now worth more than my house in Orange County, California. Who knew?

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

My recollection of it was, the Soros/DU wing of the party had the upper hand until the Iowa Caucus, when the loyalists from the Clintons & Kennedy wing of the party appeared on the scene. Kerry was "IN" with them in a big way.

It quickly became the status quo versus the well funded but politically impotent little leaguers.

[staytrue]

How is it Mr Medved that Huckabee, Brownback, Tancredo, Ron Paul, Gilmore, Thompson, Duncan Hunter don't have a chance, but Barak Hussein Obama, and his 20 months experience, does? >

If barack were caucasian, would he have a chance ? Hell no he wouldn't.

[zbigreddogz]

[mysterio]

Bump for Constitutional scholar Ron Paul. The Constitution should be the top issue for every candidate.

I know the document this nation is based on is safe under his watch.

[Torie]

I'm the authority, I'm right, you're wrong, and your are at once impertinent and churlish to doubt me, much less contradict me.

[staytrue]

McCain. He's an 'it's his time' candidacy.

Of the big 3, McCain is my least favorite, but for the reason you cite, I think McCain wins it.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Speaking ability has little to do with it. The fact that Hunter has developed many political enemies in the media is a sure problem for him. Trust me on this.

[AmishDude]

Here is a poll conducted Jan 13-16, 2004. The caucuses were held on the 19th. To my mind, that was the first indication that Dean was in trouble. (I believe what did him in -- because he was on tenderhooks to begin with -- was yelling at the heckler questioner.) And even then, Dean was at 20% and Kerry was only at 26%. Kerry ended up with 38%, Edwards at 32%.

[Junior_G]

Medved is such a Republican party hack it boggles the mind. There is nothing conservative about him.

[zbigreddogz]

Constitutional scholar?

Yah, I'm sure he learned all about the Constitution while getting his M.D. /sarc

[EveningStar]

How is it Mr Medved that Huckabee, Brownback, Tancredo, Ron Paul, Gilmore, Thompson, Duncan Hunter don't have a chance, but Barak Hussein Obama, and his 20 months experience, does?

Obama has mass appeal and will get $$$ in his campaign warchest.

[zbigreddogz]

Uhh, ok, whatever.

[AmishDude]

Unlike OC, CA, I don't have to take out a second mortgage to pay property taxes.

I own some property, but it's a little townhouse, so I really don't have much land.

And frankly, it's a pain in the butt. I'd rather rent. It's too much trouble for me to clean, etc.

[WestVirginiaRebel]

OK, here's the thing: Protest candidates historically do not win presidential elections unless things are really bad. The kind of people on the right who think things are really bad and who rail against mainstream conservatives are on the fringe, but they have come to see themselves as the voice of the GOP base. The last time a protest candidate got anywhere near to being a major contender was Ross Perot, and thanks to him we got eight years of Bubba. No thanks! And don't talk to me about "Underdogs." Clinton, as much as I couldn't stand him, was already fairly well known in Dummycrat circles by 1992 and had been governor for several years. Egotistical congressmen don't get to become president (at best they become speaker of the House : ))

Rommney and Rudy are, for all their faults, still perhaps the best bet for the GOP keeping the White House and for bringing at least some measure of common sense back to the party. Enough with the Bush clones and nannystaters masquerading as "Real conservatives!"

[Kirkwood]

"Somebody needs to send Michael Medved this link.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1782675/posts "

Do you honestly think Medved is going to be impressed by a thread with a mere 75 posts? It means nothing.

[Torie]

Not enough room to grow corn eh?