James Lileks: Don't Underestimate Giuliani (And Newt still can't win!)

The Newhouse News Service ^ | February 6, 2007 | James Lileks

[quidnunc]

Rudy Giuliani is in. Suggested campaign slogan: "He dealt with Brooklyn. He can handle Baghdad.'' He's not a sure thing; he has enough baggage to fill the cargo hold of a cruise ship. His sundry personal-life issues bother social conservatives; the gun control stance dismays the Second Amendment wing of the party; the pro-choice opinions alarm the evangelicals. That leaves about 47 Republicans, right? After all, it's just a party of cousin-marrying yahoos who'd sooner shoot up Planned Parenthood than vote for one of those fish-on-Friday types. Right?

No. Voters are more flexible and forgiving than you might expect. And none of the objections obscure the central appeal of the Rudy candidacy: He'll nuke 'em if he has to. That won't be the central theme of his campaign, of course, but it's the unstated strength of his candidacy. He's not a wuss. Look at the rest of the field:

Mitt Romney. He's a heavy fave, but the M-word makes his support in the evangelical community unsure. Many will vote for him, since he's an all-around moral guy, and no one wants a public debate over doctrinal differences. Other evangelicals regard his faith as something between David Koresh and Scientology, and would rather vote for Joe Lieberman. (Him you could convert!) Romney has an abortion flip-flop to confront, which softens his support as well. He's a solid candidate thus far because he's, well, solid: He appears hewn from the Presidential Quarry.

On the other hand, he could be a genial cyborg from an invading race. Wouldn't exactly surprise anyone.

-snip-

[Txsleuth]

I am heading to bed also...

See ya'll tomorrow.

[Txsleuth]

LOL..yes, he is an actor.

[AmishDude]

Now, now, let us behave with the language, even if the cursing is in French, we are above that sort of thing.

[Geronimo]

Wonder what what the odds will be when Rudy officially announces on Saturday at the CA GOP Convention?

I wouldn't be surprised if he's at 2/1 by this time next week, McCain will continue to drift out while the bookies cover their liabilities, they never lose their shirts in these kind of races..So if you fancy a bet on him today, he looks attractive...

I personally wouldn't bet on him, I like the fact that his maverick personality is the perfect foil to Hillary, but I think there will be problems in his life that will make him withdraw from this race... if that's the case, you won't get your bet back in this sketchy horse race, so I won't bet on sketchy horses...

[IslandJeff]

"The Voice of Reason" still has a bit of atonement to do, and I think even his Harvard-rear-end will admit that.

Ironic, how his shameless support for Arnold and Harriet Miers makes him, seemingly, doomed in the eyes of conservatives.

He's treading lightly around Giuliani, because, like any other Buckeye fan, he's ultimately a Homer. Great guy with a good radio show, but he increasingly isolates his audience unnecessarily. Steyn and Lileks are pretty much the only reasons to listen these days.

[PhiKapMom]

I am not a better but I do find it interesting to learn about political betting.

Only time I bet is on the Triple Crown and then not much. My son and I won with Afleet Alex for no reason except the office he shares with a fellow grad student named Alex.

[nopardons]

Long, long ago Dean Martin used to host a few much cleaned up ROASTS on T.V.; but ROASTS have always been for just the select few and never made public.

"GANGS OF NEW YORK" was a lousy movie, based extremely loosely on a fantastic book. I was so distracted by how monstrously awful the script and the acting was, that I admit that I have no idea what you are alluding to, by that supposed quote.

[nopardons]

Gee, for someone who posted the posting rules,many times over, to this thread, one would think that that person wouldn't keep breaking them. LOL

[Sir Francis Dashwood]

This is only one of a long list of problems with conservatives, letting leftists tell us who can (Rudy) or can't (Newt) win. I personally don't see much difference between Bill Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.

The only way the Left can win is to destroy the Republican Party from within. They have lost the public argument and cannot win on the issues, they have to have despotic judges do it for them and they have to undermine conservatives in the Republican primary.

[BibChr]

Thanks.

What an ugly situation. I thought for years that one of W's failings was not grooming any successors. Normally it's the VP, but W picked one who (A) is an excellent VP, (B) would make a good candidate and president, (C) was not going to run, period.

[Coldwater Creek]

Fred Thompson was one of those "conservative" senators that did not vote to convict Bill Clinton.

He was one of my senators, and was not that impressive.

[Miss Marple]

See this picture? Who is this man? For those of you too young to remember, this is MILTON BERLE, whoappeared almost every week in drag in his #1 television show in the 1950's!

Get that? The 1950's! In prime time on network television!!! And it was the MOST popular show!

What I am saying is that the American people do not get upset by men appearing in drag for a charity fundraiser. So knock off spamming about that because not only do we not care, neither does the American public!!

Disclaimer: I am not backing anyone yet, but am totally turned off by this over-the-top anti-Rudy stuff. Of course, next week it will be anti-Mitt, if they see him creeping up in the polls.

[Mo1]

Thank you for that post!

[Constitution Day]

The Bleat
The Quirk

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Lileks Ping!
If you'd like to be added or removed, just drop me a line...

[alwaysconservative]

Thanks for the ping, and bump for later reading!

[alwaysconservative]

Bravo! Applause, applause, stomps, cheers, and whistles for you!

[Rummyfan]

After all, it's just a party of cousin-marrying yahoos who'd sooner shoot up Planned Parenthood than vote for one of those fish-on-Friday types. Right?

Lileks accurately summarizes the MSM view of GOP voters!

[Rummyfan]

John McCain. Loved within the Beltway for his "maverick'' ways. Unfortunately, outside the Beltway, "maverick'' is defined as a tendency to stab the party in the back repeatedly, then expect everyone to pay for the blade to be resharpened. The base admires John McCain as a man; the base honors his service, both in the armed forces and the Senate. The base looks forward to his concession speech.

Woo Hoo! Best statement of McCain's chances I have read!

[McGavin999]

I refuse to be forced into rejection of or jumping onto any candidate love machine so far in advance of the actual primaries. But I am not going to be driven by the "he wasn't against this or that from birth" crowd or the leftists who come here to denigrate our candidates...and make no mistake, they are here.

I agree with you completely. This is going to be a very important election because how the WOT goes depends on who is elected.

[tertiary01]

We have a great big country with tons of outstanding people of conservative persuasion and Rudy is the leading pub candidate? Says a lot about the Republican party, but look on the bright side he makes almost everyone else look conservative by comparison.

Hoping he doesn't make the US a sanctuary country.