James Lileks: Don't Underestimate Giuliani (And Newt still can't win!)

The Newhouse News Service ^ | February 6, 2007 | James Lileks

[quidnunc]

Rudy Giuliani is in. Suggested campaign slogan: "He dealt with Brooklyn. He can handle Baghdad.'' He's not a sure thing; he has enough baggage to fill the cargo hold of a cruise ship. His sundry personal-life issues bother social conservatives; the gun control stance dismays the Second Amendment wing of the party; the pro-choice opinions alarm the evangelicals. That leaves about 47 Republicans, right? After all, it's just a party of cousin-marrying yahoos who'd sooner shoot up Planned Parenthood than vote for one of those fish-on-Friday types. Right?

No. Voters are more flexible and forgiving than you might expect. And none of the objections obscure the central appeal of the Rudy candidacy: He'll nuke 'em if he has to. That won't be the central theme of his campaign, of course, but it's the unstated strength of his candidacy. He's not a wuss. Look at the rest of the field:

Mitt Romney. He's a heavy fave, but the M-word makes his support in the evangelical community unsure. Many will vote for him, since he's an all-around moral guy, and no one wants a public debate over doctrinal differences. Other evangelicals regard his faith as something between David Koresh and Scientology, and would rather vote for Joe Lieberman. (Him you could convert!) Romney has an abortion flip-flop to confront, which softens his support as well. He's a solid candidate thus far because he's, well, solid: He appears hewn from the Presidential Quarry.

On the other hand, he could be a genial cyborg from an invading race. Wouldn't exactly surprise anyone.

-snip-

[chesty_puller]

It is the same every four years. We have gone from Go Pat Go, Harry Brown to the Michael Savage nuts. Same people just different leaders.

[narses]

Truth isn't spam. Refuting liberal lies isn't spam. But you know that.

[deport]

The lastest Fox poll.......

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Jan. 30-31, 2007. N=900 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republican voters (MoE ± 5).

					.
"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were [see below]?" Names rotated
					.
		1/30-31/07	12/5-6/06	8/29-30/06	3/14-15/06	6/14-15/05
		%	%	%	%	%
	Rudy Giuliani	34	30	27	29	29
	John McCain	22	23	25	22	26
	Newt Gingrich	15	9	14	8	9
	Mitt Romney	3	8	5	4	2
	Duncan Hunter	2	1	n/a	n/a	n/a

1%ers and below left off.....

[nopardons]

Supposedly she is a she.

[Mo1]

I have done none of those things

And if you think I don't know what you are trying to do ... THINK AGAIN

[BibChr]

I don't get why so many conservatives are attracted to Giuliani. Is our bench THAT pathetically shallow?

[rirepublican]

You know the truth it was done for charity but that doesn't fit your agenda so you post your snide remarks.......

BRAVO!!!

[nopardons]

Thank GOD, I don't have your reputation on FR! LOL

[narses]

Name calling is most certainly a personal attack. But you knew that, right?

[Howlin]

Please: Bite me.

[AmishDude]

It's so true about Newt. He has all of these "great ideas" but, honestly, some of them are unrealistic from either a practical or political standpoint.

He does make it sound great until you say "Hey, we don't have matter-energy transporters!"

[PhiKapMom]

Exactly -- have had it with bi-partisanship!

[nopardons]

Why don't you CCP the bit about SPAMMING to her, from FR's front page?

[Hambone02]

RUDY: HE'LL NUKE 'EM IF HE HAS TO!

Only, when would he think he has to? When he is forced? When we're nuked first?

[deport]

Another truth worth mentioning.......

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Jan. 24-25, 2007. N=332 registered Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE ± 6.

						.
"Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between [see below]. Who would you MOST like to see nominated?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward [see below]?"
						.
		Rudy Giuliani	John McCain	Unsure
		%	%	%
	1/24-25/07	48	44	8
						.
		Rudy Giuliani	Mitt Romney	Unsure
		%	%	%
	1/24-25/07	72	17	11
						.
		John McCain	Mitt Romney	Unsure
		%	%	%
	1/24-25/07	69	19	12

[arthurus]

I agree. He is a good man for Mayor of New York or police commissioner for just about any large city.

[Richard Kimball]

There are several. Rudy looks better in pantyhose. So far, I like what I see of Fred Thompson. I don't know enough about Romney. Giuliani is not my first choice, but I could vote for him. My only WILL NOT VOTE FOR is McCain. I could vote for Newt, but he's shot himself several times.

[Howlin]

LOL!

[familyop]

Thanks for posting the facts and evidence. It's much better to see evidence from you than name calling and dishonest rhetoric from others.

[onyx]

It's up to the moderators to enforce the rule. Since we do not hit abuse, the SPAM goes unnoticed.