James Lileks: Don't Underestimate Giuliani (And Newt still can't win!)

The Newhouse News Service ^ | February 6, 2007 | James Lileks

[quidnunc]

Rudy Giuliani is in. Suggested campaign slogan: "He dealt with Brooklyn. He can handle Baghdad.'' He's not a sure thing; he has enough baggage to fill the cargo hold of a cruise ship. His sundry personal-life issues bother social conservatives; the gun control stance dismays the Second Amendment wing of the party; the pro-choice opinions alarm the evangelicals. That leaves about 47 Republicans, right? After all, it's just a party of cousin-marrying yahoos who'd sooner shoot up Planned Parenthood than vote for one of those fish-on-Friday types. Right?

No. Voters are more flexible and forgiving than you might expect. And none of the objections obscure the central appeal of the Rudy candidacy: He'll nuke 'em if he has to. That won't be the central theme of his campaign, of course, but it's the unstated strength of his candidacy. He's not a wuss. Look at the rest of the field:

Mitt Romney. He's a heavy fave, but the M-word makes his support in the evangelical community unsure. Many will vote for him, since he's an all-around moral guy, and no one wants a public debate over doctrinal differences. Other evangelicals regard his faith as something between David Koresh and Scientology, and would rather vote for Joe Lieberman. (Him you could convert!) Romney has an abortion flip-flop to confront, which softens his support as well. He's a solid candidate thus far because he's, well, solid: He appears hewn from the Presidential Quarry.

On the other hand, he could be a genial cyborg from an invading race. Wouldn't exactly surprise anyone.

-snip-

[deport]

Some more facts

Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. Jan. 22-23, 2007. N=441 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican.
					.
"Now I'm going to read a list of candidates who might be running for the Republican Party presidential nomination in 2008. If the Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, listen carefully to the names and then tell me which candidate you would be most likely to vote for. . . ." Names rotated
					.
		%
	John McCain	30
	Rudy Giuliani	26
	Newt Gingrich	14
	Mitt Romney	5
	Sam Brownback	3
	George Pataki	2

[nopardons]

Newt isn't running. So who is your candidate?

[Howlin]

So, we're going to end up with McCain.

Hope everybody's down with that.........LOL.

[narses]

You are welcome. Name calling is a sign of severe weakness.

[onyx]

McCain and Guliani and vice versa in every poll you've posted.

[Strategerist]

You know, oddly enough, that Keyes won every FR poll back in 99-00. Not sure what that means except that FR and the public aren't necessarily one and same when it comes to politics.

Wow, quite the flamewar and I haven't even posted yet :-)

Not only are FR and the public not one and the same, FR and the Republican Party isn't one in the same.

The one thing I'm a bit disappointed by is the silly Newt fantasies, after dying out after an apparent wave of logical thought and objective rationality swept through these threads, seem to have returned.

[garv]

You won't have to worry about bipartianship with Rudy. He'll be siding with the Democrats 80% of the time.

[AmishDude]

NOT being for Newt says more about Quidnunc than about Newt.

Based on quidward's history of unnecessarily excerpting posts, you'd think he'd support Ne Ging, at least.

[Howlin]

LOL!

You wit is welcome and needed tonight.

[Hambone02]

Because, conservatives are being told that is who they need to vote for, by leftists. Once again, we need to vote conservative, not electability.

[AmishDude]

Thank you. I wasn't supporting Rudy at all. But now I will vote for him. Out of spite. Against you.

I hope the rest of my fellow Iowans feel the same way.

[narses]

LOL, a bright and reasonable sentiment. I am sure Iowa will embrace a crossdressing gungrabbing abortion supporter from NY City. Sure.

[Hambone02]

I'm with you on McCain. Giuliani is on the same list, personally. What politician hasn't shot himself a few times? ;)

[quidnunc]

BibChr wrote: I don't get why so many conservatives are attracted to Giuliani. Is our bench THAT pathetically shallow?

The pendulum has started swinging back to the left.

Independents are turning their backs on conservatism and it will take someone like Arnold to win on a national level.

[nopardons]

No, TRUTH isn't SPAM and neither is refuting YOUR LIES!

What you do is SPAM!

[familyop]

"You are welcome. Name calling is a sign of severe weakness."

Yes. It's also a sign of special privilege for the kind of women who do it (often feminists). Stormfront members were once discussing as to how to "infiltrate" Free Republic. They decided to do so with Christian identity (a prong of neo-Nazi efforts) rhetoric and with usernames indicating that they were women (even for those who were men).

[AmishDude]

Click here to see the spam in all of its glory.

The same posts over and over again on every thread.

[Mo1]

Bug off loon .. and yes that was name calling

But I'm sure that won't stop you from spamming more

[deport]

Not only are FR and the public not one and the same, FR and the Republican Party isn't one in the same.

---

Correct.

[Howlin]

I did before; 14 spams in under 8 minutes. That's got to be some kind of forum record:

Ahem:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1780462/posts?page=11#11