The pendulum has started swinging back to the left.
Independents are turning their backs on conservatism and it will take someone like Arnold to win on a national level.
I don't think independents have turned their back on conservatism (at least the small-government, strong-on-defense kind). I think independents have turned their back on people who get elected after promising to champion small government, and a mere 10-or-so years later are wallowing in OUR MONEY like pigs in slop. Oh, and at the same time doing stupid, corrupt, mommy-state crap like outlawing internet gambling.
That said, Newt is a non-starter -- he got rolled by the 'toon in the 90s, and he cannot control his mouth. Let him craft strategy, but don't let him be the public face of the party.
Romney and Hunter are possibilities for me; Rudy is less so unless he can convincingly come out against his gun-grabbing positions; McCain is absolutely out.